Source: View source · u/nbaphilly17 · reddit

The post

The market is currently pricing CXMT as though it is ready to challenge SK hynix (and others) across the entire memory industry. First, it is true that CXMT is a legitimate competitor in commodity DRAM. It can produce DDR4, DDR5, and mobile memory, gain share in China, and add enough capacity to pressure pricing. That said, commodity DRAM is not the main reason investors own SK hynix. The SK hynix investment thesis is increasingly centered on: HBM3E and HBM4, Advanced server memory, Customized HBM products, Advanced packaging, Long-term qualification with major customers, Enterprise SSDs through Solidigm. CXMT is not currently a threat in any of those areas. Producing conventional DRAM is not the same as producing high-yield HBM that can be stacked, packaged, qualified, and shipped at scale to leading AI customers. That would require years of advanced manufacturing and customer qualification. They did not suddenly acquire those capabilities because it completed a large IPO. CXMT raised just $8.6 billion, while the limited initial public float contributed to its extremely high first-day valuation, thereby inflating its market cap. A more realistic way to view CXMT is a short t[capture truncated here]

Why it's worth your time

A grounded rebuttal to the CXMT-panic framing that's been hitting SK Hynix and the broader memory trade this week: argues CXMT's outsized IPO pop reflects share gains in commodity DRAM, not the HBM3E/HBM4, advanced-packaging, and hyperscaler-qualification businesses that actually anchor the SK Hynix bull case, and that an IPO doesn't hand a company those capabilities. A useful counterweight before reading this week's SK Hynix earnings weakness as a China-substitution story.