Article published Jul 28, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.
The AI supply chain stopped trading as twenty stories and started trading as one. Fifteen of the twenty names in the NVIDIA ecosystem closed Tuesday inside the 25-40 oversold band — up from six three sessions earlier — and exactly one rose: Skyworks, RSI 42.3 to 52.7. Breadth that uniform is a repricing of the trade, not a verdict on any company inside it.
Amkor is the crater. It fell 24.74% in a single session on 3.99 times average volume, RSI 42.4 to 27.4, its structural read downgraded to collapse and its 30-day loss deepening from −21.5% to −44.5%. It did not fall alone: FormFactor and Camtek crossed into collapse the same day, and the optical chain added Coherent, AXT and Applied Optoelectronics, widening that book's collapse bucket from seven names to nine.
The damage concentrates in the layer that gets ordered after capex is committed, not the layer already shipped. Teradyne's flagged reversal fully unwound, its 30-day loss sliding back to −30.78% from −18.09%. KLA sits at −31.46% on the month, Applied Materials −31.41%, Onto −31.17%, Lam −34.39%. ASML round-tripped a flat month into −15.94% and lost its cleanest-structure standing in the group (RSI 48.3 to 37.1). The generals, meanwhile, held: NVIDIA is −5.0% on the week at RSI 43.0 and still +1.1% over 30 days, Broadcom −1.5% and +2.3%. That gap is the whole shape of the tape — the semis fund is −16.2% on the month, and its 3x leveraged cousin −53.7%, on two double-digit single-day drops inside three sessions.
| Layer | Tuesday's read | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Generals | Held | NVDA RSI 43.0, −5.0% week, +1.1% month; AVGO RSI 47.5, +2.3% month |
| Chips ex-generals | Gave the bounce back | AMD −8.15% in a day to RSI 39.4; MRVL −37.17% month; INTC −34.48% month |
| Tools, test, packaging | Worst hit | AMKR −24.74% day, collapse; TER −30.78% month; LRCX −34.39% month |
| Optical | Broadened | COHR, AXTI, AAOI, FORM freshly in collapse — 9 of 37 names |
| Power | Not a diversifier | CEG RSI 60.4→48.6; VST 54.8→40.7; BE −11.34% day, −39.33% month |
The power leg was supposed to trade on electricity demand rather than chip orders. It didn't. Constellation gave back its entire prior reversal and downgraded to collapse, Vistra fell from RSI 54.8 to 40.7, GE Vernova lost 12.55% and Talen 10.95% on the week, and Bloom Energy took a second consecutive double-digit single-day crash. Watts and wafers are currently one position.
Two standing calls closed below their own written invalidation levels on the same session: the July 18 turn-signature call, with the semis fund at $529.60 against a $536.81 line, and the July 8 washout slate's KGS leg at $56.51 against $57.50. They died to precisely the scenario those levels were written for, which is what a working invalidation looks like. Re-arming takes a fresh turn signature — reclaimed levels with breadth behind them — not a bounce back over the old line.
Resolution is scheduled, not hypothetical. Seagate is due to report after Tuesday's close, Western Digital Wednesday, and the hyperscaler capex reads land July 29-30 — the numbers that either justify this repricing or reverse it. Until then the conditions matter more than the names: NVIDIA's support shelf sits at $186.48 with its thesis flag still marked intact; the semis fund re-arms only on a close back above its 50-day at $597.33 after a higher low. Amkor carries a collapse tag and no identified support shelf at all. That is the definition of a falling knife, not a discount.
Sources
- Ecosystem breadth, single-day moves, RSI/trend tags and support shelves: 2026-07-28-nvda-ecosystem, 2026-07-28-ai-scan.
- Tools, test and packaging damage plus fresh collapse tags: 2026-07-28-wfe-test-metrology; optical breadth: 2026-07-28-optical-supply-chain.
- Fund-level moves (SMH, SOXL): 2026-07-28-etf-universe, market-pulse.
- Invalidation levels and the two closed calls: 2026-07-28-semis-calls-invalidated-duty-pass.
- Price, RSI and trend tags as of the 2026-07-28 close: semis, ai-infra, energy, wfe-test-metrology, etf-ideas.
- Scheduled storage prints (Seagate July 28, Western Digital July 29): README.