Editorial Note: ARM at $323.39 RSI 47.9 has continued grinding lower since the 06/26 read ($334.27, RSI 48.4) — down another -3.3%, with RSI essentially flat at the neutral midpoint. This is a much calmer two weeks than the prior -17.11% single-week drawdown: 7D is now a modest -2.33% and 30D has flipped negative to -5.51% (was +10.43%), confirming the pullback has continued rather than reversed. The 3M return has decayed to +105.22% (from +131.92%) as the April parabolic move continues to roll out of the trailing window, but remains a strong multi-quarter gain. SMA20 at $356.53 is now -9.3% above current price — still overhead, similar gap to two weeks ago. Golden cross remains intact, regime still tagged "pullback" and thesis flag "intact-but-priced," unchanged from the prior read. From 52wk high, ARM is now -28.56% (was -26.16%) — a modest further widening, not a new leg down. The royalty-per-chip AI/custom-silicon thesis is unchanged; this reads as continuation of the same pullback rather than a new development.

2026-07-17 tape note: The pullback has accelerated sharply. ARM $267.19, RSI 38.4 (down from 47.9), now -18.6% below SMA20 and -15.5% below SMA50 — a much wider gap than two weeks ago. 7D -17.38%, 30D -39.2% (deepest single-month decline in this file's history), and from 52wk high has widened to -40.98% (was -28.56%). 3M has actually improved to +52.59% (window effect — the April parabolic move rolling out is now offset by this leg down). Golden cross still intact (+44.6% above SMA200), thesis flag still "intact-but-priced." No new fundamentals re-researched; this is a materially harder pullback than the "calmer two weeks" framing above — trend has flipped from strong-up to weak-down.

2026-07-25 tape note (Friday 2026-07-24 close): The free-fall has stabilized. ARM $260.01, RSI 38 (essentially flat vs 38.4) — down a further -2.7% from the 07/17 checkpoint, but the pace has slowed sharply: 7D is -2.69% (vs -17.38%) and 30D has moderated to -27.59% (vs -39.2%). Still below SMA20 (-13.8%, narrowed from -18.6%) and now further below SMA50 (-19.3%, vs -15.5%). 3M has decayed further to +10.73% (from +52.59%) as the April parabolic move continues rolling out of the trailing window — a base-effect artifact, not fresh weakness. From 52wk high, the gap has narrowed to -37.48% (from -40.98%). Golden cross still intact (+38.4% above SMA200); thesis flag "intact-but-priced" unchanged. No new fundamentals re-researched.

2026-07-28 tape note: The stabilization broke — a sharp single-day drop. ARM $244.74, RSI 35.9 (down from 38) — a -8.11% single-day move, deepening 7D to -15.53% (from -2.69%) and 30D to -28.77% (from -27.59%). Still below SMA20 (-16.5%, widened from -13.8%) and SMA50 (-24.3%, widened from -19.3%). From 52wk high, the gap has widened to -45.94% — the deepest drawdown yet in this file's history (vs -37.48% prior). 3M has ticked up to +21.34% (base-effect churn, not new strength). Golden cross still intact (+29.6% above SMA200); regime still "pullback," thesis flag "intact-but-priced" unchanged. No new fundamentals re-researched — no company-specific news identified for this move; reads as a fresh leg down in an already-extended pullback. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-07-28 close).

2026-07-31 tape note: ARM $239.69 (-2.06% vs $244.74), RSI 37.5 (warmed from 35.9). 7D -7.82% (moderated from -15.53%), 30D -28.97% (roughly flat from -28.77%), 3M +13.50% (decelerated from +21.34%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -47.05% (widened from -45.94%). Per the tape: trend "weak-down", regime "pullback", golden cross intact. Note (added 2026-08-03): Arm reported its Q4/FY2026 on July 29 — record revenue $1.49B, +20% YoY, data-center royalties doubling — and the tape barely moved on it; a record print landing inside a −47%-from-high drawdown is itself the read. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-07-31 close). 2026-08-08 tape note: ARM $282.57 (+17.89% vs $239.69), RSI 50.3 (warmed from 37.5). 7D +17.89% (turned positive from -7.82%), 30D -5.89% (moderated from -28.97%), 3M +32.49% (accelerated from +13.50%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -39.35% (narrowed from -47.05%). Per the tape: trend "weak-down", regime "pullback", golden cross intact. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-08-07 close). 2026-08-14 tape note: ARM $279.44 (-1.11% vs $282.57), RSI 50.9 (warmed from 50.3). 7D -1.11% (turned negative from +17.89%), 30D +0.88% (turned positive from -5.89%), 3M +33.60% (accelerated from +32.49%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -38.45% (narrowed from -39.35%). Per the tape: trend "weak-down", regime "pullback", golden cross intact. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-08-14 close).

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Quick Snapshot

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Action Matrix

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Price Data

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Key Changes vs 07/28

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Research Log

Sources

• Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-31 tape — focus.
• Prior-cycle history: this file's dated update log (refreshed each full scan).