Article published Aug 14, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.
AVAV Price Structure
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Attribution note, upfront: every operating metric in this piece that is not a filed financial statement figure — the $1.84 adjusted quarterly EPS, the 1.4 book-to-bill, the $1.2B funded backlog, the $2.7B bookings, the $286M adjusted EBITDA, the FY2027 guidance range, the $282.3M acquisition revenue contribution, and the $151.3M goodwill impairment — comes from third-party news write-ups and law-firm press releases, not from the SEC filings available to this desk. They are attributed, not independently verified. Everything labeled GAAP below is traceable to the FY2026 Form 10-K's XBRL facts.
The Story Right Now
AeroVironment closed at $192.81 on August 14 with an RSI of 65.6, up 36.53% over thirty days and still 54.67% below its 52-week high. That is not a contradiction; it is the signature of a name that fell very far, very fast, and has spent a month climbing off the floor. The 50-day average is still below the 200-day — the death cross that opened during the derate has not closed — and the regime tag remains a downtrend even with momentum running hot. The company sits below its own point of control at $199.98, the price where the most volume changed hands over the measured window. Every dollar above here is overhead supply.
What broke the stock is documented and specific. On January 20, 2026 the government issued a stop-work order on the BADGER system for the SCAR program, and the shares fell 15.77% in a session. In March a roughly $1.4 billion Space Force award went away and management cut full-year guidance; the stock lost 27% that month. Both events are now recited in a securities fraud class action whose lead-plaintiff deadline passed on July 27, 2026. The complaint's own list of alleged corrective disclosures includes the fiscal third-quarter print — a $179 million operating loss and, per the filing law firms, a $151.3 million goodwill impairment.
Then came FY2026 Q4, reported June 29. Revenue of $641.6 million was up 133.3% against the year-ago quarter and beat consensus; adjusted earnings of $1.84 per share beat a $1.47 estimate by 25%. The stock rose 19.7% from the close before the print to the first close after. That single quarter is most of the +36.53% thirty-day move.
So the question is narrow and answerable. AeroVironment's fiscal 2026 — the year ended April 30, 2026 — produced $1.977 billion of GAAP revenue, up 140.9%, and a GAAP net loss of $265.1 million against a $43.6 million profit the prior year. Is that hole purchase accounting from the BlueHalo merger, which closed May 1, 2025 and therefore sits inside every quarter of the fiscal year? Or is it something worse? The filed quarterly sequence gives a partial answer, and it is not the comfortable one.
Extended analysis
What the Company Is Doing, and Says It Will Do
The FY2026 Form 10-K opens its business description this way: "We are a defense technology provider delivering integrated capabilities across air, land, sea, space, and cyber. We develop and deploy autonomous systems, precision strike systems, counter-UAS technologies, space-based platforms, directed energy systems, and cyber and electronic warfare capabilities. We operate an international manufacturing footprint, delivering proven systems and capabilities in markets that we believe offer the potential for significant long-term growth."
That sentence is the whole strategy. The BlueHalo merger converted a loitering-munitions and small-UAS specialist into a two-segment defense technology firm — Autonomous Systems, and Space, Cyber and Directed Energy — and the order flow since has landed on both sides of that line. In the spring the Army selected the Switchblade 400 for its LASSO squad-level loitering-munition program under a prototype agreement; a $117.3 million Army P550 award followed; a $43 million Department of War contract put the PANTHER phased-array antenna on SkyRange platforms for hypersonic telemetry; and the company reported a successful counter-UAS laser test. Management has guided fiscal 2027 revenue to $2.125–$2.225 billion, roughly 10% growth at the midpoint, with adjusted EBITDA of $305–$325 million.
Two leadership seats turned over in April 2026: a new chief operating officer and, days later, a new chief financial officer. On a name whose disclosure practices are the subject of an active class action, a CFO change mid-litigation is context worth naming, not a verdict.
The company's filed risk factors are not available on disk, so the risk section below is built from filed financials, dated program events, and the news record rather than from management's own enumerated risks.
What the Street and Socials Say
The sell-side record on this name is unflattering and worth reading as a pattern rather than as individual calls. Across the last nine quarterly prints in the desk's reconciliation cache, AeroVironment missed the adjusted consensus five times, including a 44.23% miss in December 2025 and a 58.22% miss in March 2025. March 2026 downgrades came in a batch of three after the Space Force loss. The June 2026 beat is real, and it is the exception in that series, not the rule.
The social layer is thin and low-conviction: a May post noting the company "scaling for mass production" of counter-UAS, and a July post calling the defense trade reignited on the back of the quarter and a Wall Street Journal piece about JPMorgan's national-security investment push. Neither is analysis; both are sentiment. A trade-press item from July headlines "AeroVironment's $4 billion target," but the desk holds only the headline, not the body, so the number is not usable.
One item deserves an explicit correction. A July 7 article describing the stock "crashing" on an FY2026 Q3 revenue print of $408 million against a consensus estimate of $476 million is describing the March quarter, not a July event. The March quarter is already in the tape.
Setup
| Stock | Price | 1D | 7D | 30D | 3M | 52wkHi | RSI | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVAV | $192.81 | +1.78% | +3.26% | +36.53% | +22.03% | -54.67% | 65.6 | 🟡 Extended, trend unconfirmed | 🔍 Watch / Research |
| Level | Reading |
|---|---|
| 20-day / 50-day | $165.70 / $163.22 — both reclaimed; price sits 16.4% and 18.1% above them |
| 200-day | $226.33 — price is 14.8% below it; death cross intact, regime downtrend |
| Volume point of control | $199.98 — immediate overhead; price is just underneath |
| Anchored VWAP from the low | $160.78 — price is above it, the one structural positive |
| Nearest support shelf | $176.42 |
| Value area | $135.20 low / $276.53 high; session VWAP $237.05, price 18.66% below it |
| 52-week range | $135.20 – $417.86 (as of the August 13 profile stamp) |
| Relative volume | 1.23x, on $297.7M of dollar volume |
The August 14 turnaround screen lists AVAV as a deep-drawdown name that has turned short-term — the explicit framing there is watch class, not an entry pool: the pop is leg 2 of bottom → pop → flag → breakout. That is exactly right. Entry zone $163–$180, stop $158, target $276, conviction medium. The entry does not exist today. It exists if and only if a pullback holds the $176.42 shelf or the 20/50-day cluster around $163–$166 without breaking $158. A close below $158 gives back both the 50-day and the anchored VWAP from the low, and the reclaim thesis is dead. Chasing $192.81 into a $199.98 volume wall with the 200-day another 17% overhead is the trade this setup is designed to avoid.
Bull Case
The revenue base is genuinely three times what it was two years ago. GAAP revenue was $716.7M in FY2024. It was $820.6M in FY2025 and $1,976.8M in FY2026. Even if the whole increment were acquired, the company now has scale it did not have, in exactly the two categories procurement is funding hardest.
Gross margin recovered through the year. Quarterly GAAP gross margin ran 20.9% → 24.2% → 31.6% across Q1, Q3 and Q4 of FY2026, against 36.5% in the year-ago fourth quarter. The direction is right; the merged entity is not stuck at Q1's 20.9%.
The fourth quarter was a real beat on a real number. $641.6 million against a consensus in the $559–$570 million range, and a 1.4 book-to-bill with $1.2 billion of funded backlog per the earnings coverage. Bookings of $2.7 billion were reported alongside it. Orders, not just revenue, inflected.
The order flow is diversified across the new footprint. LASSO, P550, PANTHER/SkyRange, and the counter-UAS laser work land in different program offices. The single-program concentration that made the BADGER stop-work so violent is structurally lower than it was.
The balance sheet is not stressed. $377.3 million of cash and $255.0 million of short-term investments at April 30, 2026, against $747.5 million of long-term debt and $4.40 billion of equity. Current assets of $1.89 billion cover current liabilities of $439.2 million several times over. This company is not being forced to do anything.
The cohort is confirming. The August 14 drone-defense read has the whole book bid — UMAC +83.91% on the month, RCAT +35.07%, KTOS +29.99% — and AVAV's +36.53% outruns two of the three small-caps over that window. Broad, not idiosyncratic.
Bear Case
The GAAP hole is not fully explained by amortization, and the quarterly shape proves it. Fiscal 2026 GAAP operating income was negative $310.995 million on negative 15.7% operating margin, against positive $40.795 million and 5.0% in fiscal 2025. The damage is concentrated: the fiscal third quarter alone ran a negative $179.038 million operating loss on negative 43.9% margin — the quarter containing the January 20 stop-work order and the impairment. If this were purely steady-state purchase-price amortization, it would spread evenly across four quarters. It does not. Q1 was negative $69.272 million, Q4 negative $32.461 million. A recurring amortization drag is real and visible in Q1 and Q4; the Q3 crater is a separate, event-driven event. Both are in the number.
Fiscal third-quarter revenue went backwards sequentially. FY2026 Q1 revenue was $454.7M; Q2 was approximately $472.5M; Q3 was $408.0M; and Q4 was $641.6M. The third quarter declined from the second and missed consensus by roughly $70–80 million. That is the quarter the stop-work order hit. Program risk is not theoretical here; it has already cost a quarter.
Cash generation turned negative at the same time capital intensity doubled. GAAP operating cash flow: +$15.3M (FY2024) → −$1.3M (FY2025) → −$78.4M (FY2026). Capital expenditure went to $62.5 million in FY2026 from $19.5 million the prior year as restated. Inventories more than doubled to $312.9 million from $144.1 million. A company burning operating cash while building inventory and plant is making a bet; it is not harvesting one.
The share count nearly doubled. Weighted diluted shares went from 28,018,656 (FY2025) to 49,087,346 (FY2026), and long-term debt from $30 million to $747.5 million. The revenue growth was bought with both currencies.
The litigation is unresolved. The lead-plaintiff deadline has passed; the case has not gone away. It could surface disclosure problems beyond the known stop-work order.
Guidance implies the growth stops. FY2027 revenue guidance of $2.125–$2.225 billion is roughly 10% at the midpoint after a year of 140.9% reported growth. The merger year is not repeatable, and the underlying business grows at a rate that does not obviously justify a 43x forward multiple on a provider consensus estimate.
The trend has not confirmed. The August 14 drone-defense read places AVAV in the AVOID column precisely on this basis: RSI above 65 with a death cross and a downtrend regime tag.
Catalysts
| Date / window | Catalyst | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 (scheduled) | Fiscal 2027 first-quarter results | The first clean read on the merged entity without a stop-work event inside it; the test is whether GAAP operating income narrows toward breakeven and whether operating cash flow turns. Date is a provider-calendar expectation, not a confirmed company announcement. |
| Autumn 2026 | FY2027 NDAA drone and counter-UAS line items | A budget cut is the explicit falsifier for the entire drone theme. |
| Ongoing | BADGER/SCAR program disposition | The event that started the derate; a restart or a formal termination both reprice the name. |
| Ongoing | Securities class action milestones | Lead plaintiff appointment, consolidated complaint, motion to dismiss — each is a disclosure event on a name whose disclosure quality is the question. |
| Ongoing | LASSO production decision, P550 follow-ons, counter-UAS/directed-energy awards | The order flow that converts the backlog claim into filed revenue. |
Risks
- Program cancellation risk is demonstrated, not hypothetical — two events (BADGER/SCAR stop-work, the ~$1.4B Space Force award) inside eight months, both of which moved the stock double digits.
- Integration risk — a merger that roughly doubled the company, with a new CFO and a new COO seated in April 2026 while the accounting from that merger is the central controversy.
- Litigation risk — an unresolved securities fraud class action alleging that the January and March events were corrective disclosures.
- Estimate credibility risk — five adjusted-consensus misses in the last nine prints, two of them worse than 40%. A June beat does not establish a new pattern.
- Working-capital risk — inventories more than doubled while operating cash flow went to −$78.4 million. If the backlog does not convert on the expected schedule, that inventory is a cash trap.
- Filed-risk-factor gap — the FY2026 10-K risk factor section is not on disk; this list is assembled from filings, program events and press, and cannot claim to reflect management's own top disclosed risks.
- Tape risk — a downtrend regime with an intact death cross means the burden of proof is on the bulls; the reclaim is one month old.
- Theme risk — a ceasefire regime compresses the multiple across the whole drone complex regardless of AeroVironment's own budget reality.
- Single-source financial risk — the vendor quarterly cache is missing the fiscal second quarter entirely and carries two corrupt share-count fields; the annual figures are EDGAR-sourced and sound, but the quarterly series has holes.
Financials
Fiscal year ends April 30. FY2026 = the twelve months ended 2026-04-30. All figures below are GAAP as filed unless the row says otherwise. Every annual figure is from the FY2026 Form 10-K XBRL facts; percentages are script-computed from those facts, never estimated.
Annual series — GAAP (fiscal years ending April 30)
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Rev YoY | Gross profit | GAAP gross margin | GAAP operating income | GAAP op margin | GAAP net income | GAAP diluted EPS | GAAP op cash flow | Capex | Wtd. diluted shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 (→2024-04-30) | $716.7M | — | $283.9M | 39.6% | +$71.8M | +10.0% | +$59.7M | +$2.18 | +$15.3M | $23.0M | 27,203,417 |
| FY2025 (→2025-04-30) | $820.6M | +14.5% | $318.6M | 38.8% | +$40.8M | +5.0% | +$43.6M | +$1.55 | −$1.3M | $19.5M ¹ | 28,018,656 |
| FY2026 (→2026-04-30) | $1,976.8M | +140.9% | $500.6M | 25.3% | −$311.0M | −15.7% | −$265.1M | −$5.40 | −$78.4M | $62.5M | 49,087,346 |
Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL company facts, FY2026 Form 10-K (accession 0001104659-26-078906). FY2026 GAAP net income is tagged from the DEF 14A filed 2026-08-14 (accession 0001104659-26-096689) and reconciles to the 10-K's −$5.40 diluted EPS on 49,087,346 weighted shares.
¹ FY2025 capex is $19.5M as restated in the FY2026 10-K; the FY2025 10-K originally filed $22.8M for the same period. Both values are on disk; the later filing is used.
Quarterly series — GAAP
| Fiscal quarter | Period end | Revenue | Rev YoY | GAAP gross margin | GAAP operating income | GAAP op margin | GAAP net income | GAAP diluted EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 Q1 | 2024-07-27 | $189.5M | — | 43.0% | +$23.1M | +12.2% | +$21.2M | +$0.75 |
| FY2025 Q2 | 2024-10-26 | $188.5M | — | 39.1% | +$7.0M | +3.7% | +$7.5M | +$0.27 |
| FY2025 Q3 | 2025-01-25 | $167.6M | — | 37.7% | −$3.1M | −1.8% | −$1.8M | −$0.06 |
| FY2025 Q4 | 2025-04-30 | $275.1M | — | 36.5% | +$13.8M | +5.0% | +$16.7M | +$0.59 |
| FY2026 Q1 | 2025-08-02 | $454.7M | +140.0% | 20.9% | −$69.3M | −15.2% | −$67.4M | −$1.44 |
| FY2026 Q2 ² | 2025-10-30 | ~$472.5M | — | n/a | ~−$30.2M | n/a | ~−$17.1M | −$0.34 |
| FY2026 Q3 | 2026-01-31 | $408.0M | +143.4% | 24.2% | −$179.0M | −43.9% | −$156.6M | −$3.15 |
| FY2026 Q4 | 2026-04-30 | $641.6M | +133.3% | 31.6% | −$32.5M | −5.1% | −$24.1M | −$0.46 |
Source: the vendor income-statement cache; margins and YoY script-computed from those filed figures.
² The fiscal second quarter is missing from the quarterly cache (the revenue field is null). Its revenue, operating income and net income above are derived by subtracting the three filed quarters from the audited annual total — they are arithmetic, not filed figures, and are marked with ~. The −$0.34 diluted EPS is the SEC-tagged quarterly figure carried in the desk's estimate-reconciliation cache. The check holds: the four quarterly EPS figures sum to −$5.39 against the filed annual −$5.40.
GAAP vs. adjusted — the whole tension in one table
| Print date | Fiscal quarter | Consensus est. (adjusted) | Adjusted EPS actual (non-GAAP, company-defined) | GAAP diluted EPS | Verdict vs. consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | FY2026 Q4 | $1.47 | +$1.84 | −$0.46 | Beat, +25.0% |
| 2026-03-10 | FY2026 Q3 | $0.69 | +$0.64 | −$3.15 | Miss, −7.4% |
| 2025-12-09 | FY2026 Q2 | $0.79 | +$0.44 | −$0.34 | Miss, −44.2% |
| 2025-09-09 | FY2026 Q1 | $0.34 | +$0.32 | −$1.44 | Miss, −6.7% |
Adjusted actuals and consensus from the desk's provider estimate cache; GAAP EPS from the filings cited above. The adjusted figures are company-defined non-GAAP and exclude, per the earnings coverage, acquisition-related amortization and non-cash impairment.
Read that table plainly: the company has not printed a positive GAAP quarter since the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025. In every quarter of fiscal 2026 the adjusted number was positive and the GAAP number was negative, and the gap ranged from roughly $1.10 to roughly $3.79 per share. In Q3 the gap was mostly a one-time impairment; in Q1 and Q4 it is the recurring amortization that will be there next year too. Whether $1.84 or −$0.46 is the "real" number for the fourth quarter is a judgment about how much of the amortization is a genuine economic cost of the merger, and this desk cannot settle it from the statements available. What can be said: the recurring piece is not zero and it does not disappear in fiscal 2027.
Balance sheet at 2026-04-30
| Item | Value | Basis / source |
|---|---|---|
| Cash and equivalents | $377.3M | EDGAR XBRL, FY2026 10-K |
| Short-term investments | $255.0M | EDGAR XBRL, FY2026 10-K |
| Accounts receivable | $316.2M | EDGAR XBRL, FY2026 10-K |
| Inventories | $312.9M | EDGAR XBRL, FY2026 10-K (from $144.1M at FY2025 end) |
| Total current assets | $1,890.4M | vendor balance-sheet cache |
| Property, plant and equipment | $166.7M | vendor balance-sheet cache |
| Intangible assets | $929.8M | vendor balance-sheet cache |
| Total assets | $5,716.7M | vendor balance-sheet cache |
| Total current liabilities | $439.2M | vendor balance-sheet cache |
| Long-term debt | $747.5M | vendor balance-sheet cache (from $30.0M at FY2025 end) |
| Total liabilities | $1,316.3M | vendor balance-sheet cache |
| Total equity | $4,400.4M | vendor balance-sheet cache |
Goodwill is not separately tagged in the on-disk balance-sheet cache; the $151.3 million impairment figure circulating in the litigation notices cannot be reconciled to a filed goodwill line from the data available here.
Valuation and positioning context
Market capitalization $9.587 billion; forward price/earnings 43.0 on a forward estimate of $4.40 per share; trailing earnings per share −$5.41, so no trailing multiple exists. All four are provider figures stamped August 13, 2026 — one session behind the August 14 tape used everywhere else in this piece, and the forward estimate is a consensus non-GAAP number, not a company figure. Short-interest data is not on disk for this name, so positioning cannot be assessed. Insider transaction data is also unavailable — AeroVironment is not in the desk's Form 4 monitoring universe, which is a coverage gap, not a finding of no insider activity.
Cross-references
- Drone-defense perspective (August 14, 2026) — active, escalation arc. It names AVAV directly as an established prime rebuilding after a program stop-work — record backlog, GAAP losses from acquisition accounting, a class action overhang — and flags the reclaim of the 20/50-day averages as the specific thing to watch. This dive is the adjudication that perspective called for.
- Drone-defense read, August 14, 2026 — AVAV sits in Tier A on RSI but in the AVOID column on structure; the entry-zone note reads that RSI and the monthly gain are both strong, but the regime is still a downtrend with a death cross — not yet a confirmed trend.
- Turnaround screen, August 14, 2026 — AVAV appears as a deep-drawdown turn, explicitly framed as watch class and as leg 2 of the four-leg bottom → pop → flag → breakout pattern.
- Momentum screens, August 14, 2026 — AVAV appears in no tier: not parabolic, not secular, not a steady climber. For a trend-hold book this is the load-bearing negative: the compounder shape is absent.
- Military drone supply-chain blind-test verdict, May 25, 2026 — AVAV was one of two unanimous names across three blind agents, placed at layer 1 (airframes/offense, Switchblade loitering munitions). The bottleneck-name selection was confirmed there; nothing in this dive disturbs that structural call.
- Watchlist membership — drone-defense only.
- Sibling dive — UMAC, same August 14 cycle; the two names express opposite risk shapes in the same theme (prime rebuilding from a derate vs. dilution-funded components scaler).
Sources
- AeroVironment FY2026 Form 10-K — SEC accession 0001104659-26-078906, filed 2026-06-29
- AeroVironment DEF 14A — SEC accession 0001104659-26-096689, filed 2026-08-14
- AVAV Legal Deadline Notice: Securities Fraud Class Action — GlobeNewswire, 2026-07-17
- AeroVironment Surges After Crushing Q4 Estimates with Record Revenue — ChartMill, 2026-06-29
- AVAV Q4 2026 Earnings Report — MarketBeat, 2026-06-29
- AVAV Surges On Earnings Beat As Guidance Tempers Euphoria — Timothy Sykes News, 2026-06-30
- Why AeroVironment Stock Crashed 27% in March — The Motley Fool, 2026-04-03
- U.S. Army Selects AV's Switchblade 400 for LASSO Program — Business Wire, 2026-05-04
- AV Awarded $43M DoW Contract for PANTHER on SkyRange — Business Wire, 2026-05-11
- @Vmaxpax, 2026-05-29 — "$avav scaling for mass production #cuas"
- @kawzinvests, 2026-07-02 — defense trade reignites on the AVAV quarter
- Tape: drone-defense (2026-08-14 close)
- Financials: key-financials, income-statements, balance-sheets, cash-flow-statements
- News/event: latest, 2026-06-29-avav-earnings, estimate-beats
- Context: README, 2026-08-14-drone-defense, 2026-08-14-washout-scan, 2026-05-25-military-drone-supply-chain-blind-test-verdict