Editorial Note: IBM at $270.81 RSI 52.3 — a significant pullback from the May 29 overbought extreme ($297.8, RSI 80.8). -4.59% over 7D and -18.54% from the 52wk high signals the mean-reversion the prior note flagged. Price is now -1.2% below SMA20 ($274.06), putting IBM back at the moving average after the sharp extension. +21.58% over 30D still reflects the powerful run from April lows, but the 3M gain has compressed to +6.52%. RSI 52.3 is neutral — no longer overbought, not yet oversold. This is exactly the consolidation the prior note called for before adding. The WatsonX and Red Hat OpenShift thesis is unchanged. Watch for RSI to hold above 40 and price to stabilize at or above the SMA20 as a signal the consolidation is healthy rather than a trend reversal.

2026-07-11 tape note: No contradiction — the "healthy consolidation" the 06-16 note asked to watch for is exactly what happened. IBM $287.56, RSI 55.4 (held above 40 the whole way), price back above SMA20 (+3.9%, vs -1.2% below it on 06-16), trend now "up." 3M has re-accelerated to +21.8% and the gap to the 52wk high has closed to -13.5% (from -18.5%). Consolidation resolved upward.

2026-07-17 tape note — CONTRADICTION: The upward resolution has reversed sharply. IBM $212.67, RSI 31.3 (down from 55.4, approaching oversold), price now -20.3% below SMA20 ($266.74) and trend "strong-down." 7D -26.04% — the single worst week in this file's history — 30D -14.62%, 3M -15.56%. -36.03% from 52wk high (widened sharply from -13.51%). This is a clean break of the consolidation-resolved-upward call from 07/11; no fundamentals re-researched this cycle, but the technical damage is severe and warrants a fresh look at what drove the drop.

2026-07-25 tape note (Friday 2026-07-24 close): The free-fall has stopped. IBM $214.19 (+0.7% vs $212.67), RSI 34.9 (up slightly from 31.3) — 7D has flipped to +0.71% (from -26.04%), a sharp change from the worst week in this file's history to essentially flat. Still well below SMA20 (-16%, narrowed from -20.3%), SMA50 (-17.6%), and SMA200 (-20.6%). 30D has deepened to -18.55% (from -14.62%, a base-effect drag as last cycle's crash rolls through the trailing month), while 3M has improved to -6.99% (from -15.56%). -37.84% from 52wk high, essentially flat vs -36.03%. No new fundamentals re-researched — this reads as stabilization at the lower level, not a fresh leg down or a confirmed reversal.

2026-07-28 tape note: The stabilization has turned into a real bounce. IBM $227.55 (+6.2% vs $214.19), RSI 42.6 (up from 34.9) — still below SMA20 (-8.8%, narrowed sharply from -16.0%), SMA50 (-12.6%, narrowed from -17.6%), and SMA200 (-15.4%, narrowed from -20.6%), but all three gaps have compressed materially. 7D has strengthened to +8.1% (from +0.71%), 30D is roughly flat at -18.15% (vs -18.55%), and 3M has flipped positive to +0.94% (from -6.99%). -31.56% from 52wk high — improved from -37.84%. No new fundamentals re-researched — this reads as continued recovery off the 07/17 crash low, not yet a confirmed reversal of the strong-down trend label. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-07-28 close). 2026-07-31 tape note: IBM $223.65 (-1.71% vs $227.55), RSI 41.4 (roughly flat from 42.6). 7D +4.42% (decelerated from +8.10%), 30D -21.87% (deepened from -18.15%), 3M -2.97% (turned negative from +0.94%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -32.73% (widened from -31.56%). Per the tape: trend "strong-down", regime "downtrend", no golden cross. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-07-31 close). 2026-08-08 tape note: IBM $237.28 (+6.09% vs $223.65), RSI 50 (warmed from 41.4). 7D +6.09% (accelerated from +4.42%), 30D -21.44% (moderated from -21.87%), 3M +3.27% (turned positive from -2.97%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -29.04% (narrowed from -32.73%). Per the tape: trend "strong-down", regime "downtrend", death cross confirmed. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-08-07 close). 2026-08-14 tape note: IBM $234.32 (-1.25% vs $237.28), RSI 49.5 (cooled from 50). 7D -0.54% (turned negative from +6.09%), 30D +11.74% (turned positive from -21.44%), 3M +7.61% (accelerated from +3.27%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -28.67% (essentially flat from -29.04%). Per the tape: trend "strong-down", regime "downtrend", death cross confirmed. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-08-14 close).

Price Data (2026-08-14 tape)

Key Changes vs 2026-07-28

Research Log

Sources

• Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-31 tape — watching.
• Prior-cycle history: this file's dated update log (refreshed each full scan).