Editorial Note: INTU at $280.99 RSI 34.3 — still in strong-down trend and approaching oversold territory. -6.99% over 7D and -30.3% over 30D. -38.63% over 3M. Price is -10.1% below SMA20 ($312.66) and -65.47% from the 52wk high — a catastrophic drawdown from the highs. RSI 34.3 is nearing oversold (<30) but still not there. The pattern since tracking began is grimly consistent: each note flags "approaching oversold" and the price continues lower. May 29 ($331.53, RSI 40.3) has been followed by another -15% leg down. The AI disruption repricing narrative for TurboTax/QuickBooks moat remains the market's dominant frame. No thesis change — not a falling-knife catch. Watch for RSI to reach genuine oversold (<30) or a clear price reversal before any consideration of building a position. The May 29 warning proved correct again.

2026-07-11 tape note — CONTRADICTION: The "approaching oversold → continues lower" pattern broke this cycle. RSI never reached oversold — it bounced to 45.2 instead, and price has reclaimed SMA20 (+2.3%, vs -10.1% below it on 06-16) even though the underlying price is barely changed ($274.96 vs $280.99, -2.1%). 7D flipped to +3.3%, 30D flattened to -0.26%. This reads as a bounce/basing attempt off the lows, not a reversal — the engine still flags the regime as "collapse" and thesis "broken": death cross, -44% below SMA200, -66.4% from 52wk high (a new marginal low). No new fundamentals; the AI-disruption repricing thesis is unchanged, but the multi-refresh "keeps making lower lows on every RSI approach" pattern needs updating — this time it stalled and lifted instead.

2026-07-17 tape note: The bounce has extended. INTU $291.09, RSI 52.7 (up from 45.2), now +7.1% above SMA20 ($271.70) though still -5.7% below SMA50. 7D +5.87%, 30D +9.51% (turned solidly positive), 3M -27.78%. -64.23% from 52wk high (improved slightly from -66.4%). Regime still "collapse," thesis flag: broken unchanged — death cross and -39.5% below SMA200 mean the long-term structure is still broken even as the near-term bounce extends. No new fundamentals re-researched.

2026-07-25 tape note (Friday 2026-07-24 close): The bounce continues, and SMA50 is now nearly reclaimed. INTU $296.33 (+1.8% vs $291.09), RSI 55.1 (up from 52.7) — +6.1% above SMA20 (roughly holding vs +7.1%) and only -0.6% below SMA50 (narrowed sharply from -5.7%). 7D +1.8% (moderated from +5.87%), 30D +13.5% (accelerated from +9.51%), 3M -24.83% (improved from -27.78%). -65.4% from 52wk high, essentially flat vs -64.23%. Regime still "collapse," thesis flag: broken unchanged — still -37.2% below SMA200, so long-term structure remains broken even as the bounce nears the 50-day. No new fundamentals re-researched.

2026-07-28 tape note: SMA50 is now reclaimed. INTU $312.99 (+5.6% vs $296.33), RSI 62.2 (up from 55.1) — +10.4% above SMA20 (widened from +6.1%) and +5.9% above SMA50 (reclaimed, from -0.6% below). 7D +7.96% (up from +1.8%), 30D +18.01% (up from +13.5%), 3M -20.43% (improved from -24.83%). -61.53% from 52wk high (improved from -65.4%). Regime still "downtrend," thesis flag: broken unchanged — still -33.2% below SMA200, so long-term structure remains broken even as the bounce keeps extending. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-07-28 close). 2026-07-31 tape note: INTU $316.07 (+0.98% vs $312.99), RSI 59.2 (cooled from 62.2). 7D +6.66% (decelerated from +7.96%), 30D +18.87% (accelerated from +18.01%), 3M -20.44% (roughly flat from -20.43%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -60.20% (narrowed from -61.53%). Per the tape: trend "weak-up", regime "downtrend", no golden cross. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-07-31 close). 2026-08-08 tape note: INTU $325.25 (+2.90% vs $316.07), RSI 61.1 (warmed from 59.2). 7D +2.90% (moderated from +6.66%), 30D +20.06% (accelerated from +18.87%), 3M -17.57% (moderated from -20.44%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -58.29% (narrowed from -60.20%). Per the tape: trend "weak-up", regime "downtrend", death cross confirmed. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-08-07 close). 2026-08-14 tape note: INTU $345.66 (+6.28% vs $325.25), RSI 63.4 (warmed from 61.1). 7D +6.28% (accelerated from +2.90%), 30D +23.58% (accelerated from +20.06%), 3M -11.66% (moderated from -17.57%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -50.34% (narrowed from -58.29%). Per the tape: trend "weak-up", regime "downtrend", death cross confirmed. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-08-14 close).

Price Data (2026-08-14 tape)

Key Changes vs 2026-07-28

Research Log

Sources

• Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-31 tape — cloud-saas.
• Prior-cycle history: this file's dated update log (refreshed each full scan).