Editorial Note: ISRG at $417.07 RSI 44.1 — marginal improvement from May 29 ($424.64, RSI 40.0) but the overall trend remains negative. -2.93% over 7D and -5.19% over 30D. -13.61% over 3M. Price is -1.3% below SMA20 ($422.48), essentially hugging the moving average from below. -30.93% from 52wk high. RSI 44.1 is still in the neutral-bearish zone — neither extreme oversold nor recovering. The pattern since tracking began (April: RSI 35, May: RSI 40, June: RSI 44.1) shows a slow RSI drift upward while price continues lower, suggesting grinding deterioration rather than clean capitulation. The da Vinci robot install base thesis is unchanged. Still no floor visible — wait for RSI to reach genuine oversold (<30) or a confirmed price reversal above SMA20. No position; no change in verdict.

2026-07-11 tape note: No contradiction — the "RSI drifts up, price drifts down" grind continues almost exactly as described. ISRG $406.78, RSI 45.0 (essentially flat vs 44.1), still -0.8% below SMA20 ($410.22, marginal improvement from -1.3%), and now -16.6% below SMA200 (death cross, engine regime label "collapse"). -32.64% from 52wk high — a new marginal low. Still no floor, no capitulation signal, wait verdict unchanged.

2026-07-17 tape note — CAPITULATION CANDIDATE: The grind broke sharply lower. ISRG crashed -14.15% in a single session on 3.9x average volume (11.5M shares vs 3.0M avg) — the sharpest one-day move in this file's history. Price is now $345.42, RSI 30.2 — the first genuine oversold read this profile has tracked (prior low was RSI 44-45). Now -14.4% below SMA20 and -17.2% below SMA50, -42.8% from 52wk high (a much deeper marginal low than the -32.64% two weeks ago). 7D and 30D both read -15.08% (the single-day crash dominates both windows). Regime "collapse," thesis flag still "intact" per the engine. This is the "RSI reaches genuine oversold (<30)" condition this file has been waiting for since April — but a 3.9x-volume -14% single-day crash is a distress signal, not a clean technical setup; no news/fundamentals re-researched this cycle, so the cause of the crash is not yet identified here this was the earnings reaction: Intuitive reported its Q2 on July 16, and the stock fell ~11% across the print into this session's capitulation (correction 2026-08-03: the print was in the desk's calendar when this note called the cause unidentified). Treat as a capitulation candidate requiring verification, not an automatic buy.

2026-07-25 tape note (Friday 2026-07-24 close): No bounce — the post-crash grind has continued lower, just at a calmer week-over-week pace now that the single-day shock has rolled out of the 7D window. ISRG $337.50 (-2.3% vs $345.42), RSI 31.4 (essentially flat vs 30.2 — still oversold-adjacent). SMA20 gap has narrowed slightly to -13.1% (from -14.4%) since the average is catching down to price, while SMA50 (-17.1%) and SMA200 (-30.3%) gaps are roughly flat. 7D has calmed sharply to -2.29% (from -15.08%, the crash-day effect clearing the window), but 30D is still -16.01% (roughly matching -15.08% — the crash still dominates the trailing month) and 3M has deepened to -30.01% (from -25.81%). -45.02% from 52wk high — a further, deeper marginal low than -42.8%. Thesis flag still "intact" per the engine; the original crash was the July 16 earnings reaction (attribution corrected 2026-08-03). RSI has not confirmed a turn — this reads as continued distress at a slower rate of descent, not a floor.

2026-07-28 tape note — FIRST REAL BOUNCE: After two cycles of continued grind, ISRG has bounced. ISRG $361.80 (+7.2% vs $337.50), RSI 42.4 (up from 31.4, off the oversold-adjacent zone). SMA20 gap has narrowed to -5.7% (from -13.1%), SMA50 to -10.5% (from -17.1%), and SMA200 to -25.1% (from -30.3%). 7D has flipped positive to +3.35% (from -2.29%), 30D has improved to -10.88% (from -16.01%), and 3M has improved to -20.28% (from -30.01%). -40.09% from 52wk high — improved from -45.02%, the first improvement in this metric since the 07/17 crash. Thesis flag still "intact" per the engine; the original crash was the July 16 earnings reaction (attribution corrected 2026-08-03). This is the first genuine bounce since the crash, not yet a confirmed floor — RSI would need to clear 50+ with the gap to SMA20 continuing to close before treating this as a resolved reversal. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-07-28 close). 2026-07-31 tape note: ISRG $353.33 (-2.34% vs $361.80), RSI 39.9 (cooled from 42.4). 7D +4.69% (accelerated from +3.35%), 30D -12.19% (deepened from -10.88%), 3M -22.82% (deepened from -20.28%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -41.49% (widened from -40.09%). Per the tape: trend "strong-down", regime "collapse", no golden cross. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-07-31 close). 2026-08-08 tape note: ISRG $378.81 (+7.21% vs $353.33), RSI 51.3 (warmed from 39.9). 7D +7.21% (accelerated from +4.69%), 30D -8.74% (moderated from -12.19%), 3M -15.83% (moderated from -22.82%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -37.87% (narrowed from -41.49%). Per the tape: trend "strong-down", regime "collapse", death cross confirmed. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-08-07 close). 2026-08-14 tape note: ISRG $394.51 (+4.14% vs $378.81), RSI 56 (warmed from 51.3). 7D +4.14% (moderated from +7.21%), 30D +1.42% (turned positive from -8.74%), 3M -6.32% (moderated from -15.83%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -33.55% (narrowed from -37.87%). Per the tape: trend "weak-up", regime "downtrend", death cross confirmed. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-08-14 close).

Price Data (2026-08-14 tape)

Key Changes vs 2026-07-28

Research Log

Sources

• Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-31 tape — robotics.
• Prior-cycle history: this file's dated update log (refreshed each full scan).