Editorial Note: MSFT at $372.97 RSI 40.8 is the broken-cohort read — death cross confirmed, regime "downtrend," and the stock has now lost -32.85% from its 52wk high. The June 16 read at $393.83 noted the death cross risk "re-entering the frame" — it has now arrived and hardened. The 7D return of -5.6% and 30D of -9.62% show continued distribution; the 3M of +4.77% is a window artifact that will roll negative soon as the May bounce exits. All major moving averages are overhead: SMA20 at $400.11 (-6.8%), SMA50 at $410.52 (-9.1%), SMA200 at $446.27 (-16.5%). The SMA200 is now nearly 20% above current price — the distance that characterizes structural downtrend rather than a healthy pullback. RSI 40.8 approaches oversold but is not there; in a death-cross downtrend, "approaching oversold" is a description, not a buy signal — the name can grind to RSI 30-35 before finding a mechanical floor. VWAP at $443.94 is -16% above current price, confirming the persistent selling pressure well below the average entry of the past year. The enterprise budget freeze narrative and Copilot monetization questions have not resolved. MSFT is the clearest member of the "broken cohort" (death-crossed, regime downtrend, bleeding into EOW): this is not a quality-dip setup, it is a wait-for-structure read. No entry until RSI stabilizes above 45 and price reclaims SMA20.

2026-07-11 tape check: Both explicit triggers set in the 06-26 read have now fired. RSI is 47.9 (above the 45 threshold) AND price ($385.10) has reclaimed SMA20 ($380.51, +1.2% above) for the first time since the death cross. 30D has stabilized to -1.34% (from -9.62%) and price versus VWAP improved to -12.47% (from -16.0%). The death cross itself is still confirmed and SMA200 ($440.71, -12.6%) remains materially overhead. Drawdown from the 52-week high improved modestly to -30.67% (from -32.85%), consistent with the flat 7D (+0.26%) rather than a fresh rally. Per the profile's own stated criteria, this is the first bullish signal on the base target ($400 SMA20-reclaim scenario) — worth a fresh look, not yet a "structure repaired" verdict given the death cross and SMA200 gap remain in force.

2026-07-17 tape check: The reclaim has extended. MSFT $393.82, RSI 51.7 (up from 47.9), now +3.3% above SMA20 ($381.16) — a wider margin than 07/11. Still -1.9% below SMA50 and -10.1% below SMA200 (death cross intact). 7D +2.26%, 30D +3.8% (turned solidly positive), 3M -5.6%. -29.1% from 52wk high (marginal improvement). Regime "downtrend," thesis flag "intact." This continues the base-target ($400 SMA20-reclaim) read — still not a "structure repaired" verdict given the death cross and SMA200 gap remain in force. No new fundamentals re-researched.

2026-07-25 tape check (Friday 2026-07-24 close): Both of this file's own stated triggers have now un-fired. MSFT $381.70, RSI 44.5 (down from 51.7) — back BELOW the 45 threshold this file uses as its bullish gate — and price has slipped back below SMA20 (-1.3%, from +3.3% above). Now -4.4% below SMA50 (widened from -1.9%) and -12.2% below SMA200 (widened from -10.1%), death cross still confirmed. 7D has reversed to -3.08% (from +2.26%), 30D is roughly flat at +4.44% (vs +3.8%), and 3M has deepened to -9.91% (from -5.6%). -31.3% from 52wk high — widened from -29.1%, undoing most of the recent improvement. Regime "downtrend," thesis flag "intact." Per this file's own criteria (RSI>45 AND SMA20 reclaim), the base-target read from 07/11-07/17 is no longer confirmed on the current tape — back to a wait-for-structure read. No new fundamentals re-researched.

2026-07-28 tape check: Both of this file's own stated triggers have re-fired. MSFT $393.35, RSI 51.5 (up from 44.5) — back ABOVE the 45 threshold — and SMA20 has been reclaimed (+1.1% above, from -1.3% below). Still -1.3% below SMA50 (narrowed from -4.4%) and -9.2% below SMA200 (narrowed from -12.2%), death cross still confirmed. 7D has improved to -1.11% (from -3.08%), 30D has extended to +6.72% (from +4.44%), and 3M has improved to -7.13% (from -9.91%). -29.18% from 52wk high — narrowed from -31.3%. Regime "downtrend," thesis flag "intact." Per this file's own criteria, this is the second time both triggers have fired (the first, 07/11, subsequently reversed) — worth a fresh look, not yet a "structure repaired" verdict given the death cross and SMA200 gap remain in force. No new fundamentals re-researched.

2026-07-31 tape note: MSFT $464.72 (+18.14% vs $393.35), RSI 74.6 (warmed from 51.5). 7D +21.75% (turned positive from -1.11%), 30D +20.93% (accelerated from +6.72%), 3M +12.38% (turned positive from -7.13%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -16.07% (narrowed from -29.18%). Per the tape: trend "up", regime "pullback", no golden cross. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-07-31 close). 2026-08-08 tape note: MSFT $499.99 (+7.59% vs $464.72), RSI 78.2 (warmed from 74.6). 7D +7.59% (moderated from +21.75%), 30D +30.43% (accelerated from +20.93%), 3M +20.71% (accelerated from +12.38%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -11.97% (narrowed from -16.07%). Per the tape: trend "up", regime "breakout", death cross confirmed. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-08-07 close). 2026-08-14 tape note: MSFT $495.40 (-0.92% vs $499.99), RSI 70.9 (cooled from 78.2). 7D -0.92% (turned negative from +7.59%), 30D +25.22% (moderated from +30.43%), 3M +17.67% (moderated from +20.71%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -10.27% (narrowed from -11.97%). Per the tape: trend "up", regime "breakout", death cross confirmed. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-08-14 close).

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Quick Snapshot

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Action Matrix

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Price Data

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Key Changes vs 07/28

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Research Log

Sources

• Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-31 close — *.
• Prior-cycle history: this file's dated update log (refreshed each full scan).