Editorial Note: PTON has cooled materially from the overbought May 29 peak (RSI 75, $6.40, 3M +64.1%). At 2026-06-16, PTON is at $5.72, RSI 52 — a healthy reset. RSI dropped from overbought 75 to neutral 52, the stock pulled back -10.6% from the May 29 high, and the SMA20 ($5.79) is now essentially at price (-1.2%). The 3M +38.5% is still a solid multi-month gain; the 30D +7.92% is positive. The 7D +1.4% shows the recent volatility has settled. This is the "RSI cooling from overbought toward re-entry" setup the May 29 note flagged as the correct wait: the prior caution "do not chase at RSI 75" has played out, and now RSI 52 near SMA20 is the re-entry zone the prior Action Matrix identified ($5.20-$5.60). The stock is slightly above that range at $5.72 but structurally in the right position to evaluate a starter.

2026-07-11 tape note: PTON $5.86 (07-10), RSI 54 — up +2.4% from the $5.72 (06-16) checkpoint and now +2.2% ABOVE SMA20 ($5.73), confirming the SMA20-touch re-entry read from June 16. 7D +5.02%, 30D +3.72%, 3M +23.89% (moderated from +38.5% as the window rolls). -36.3% from 52wk high, roughly flat vs -37.83% prior. Trend "weak-up" though the summary's regime field reads "downtrend" (death cross still flagged, no golden cross) — consistent with a fragile bounce inside a longer downtrend, not a confirmed reversal. No contradiction of the prior call.

2026-07-17 tape note: The bounce has extended. PTON $6.12 (07-16), RSI 57.2 — up +4.4% from the $5.86 checkpoint, now +4.3% above SMA20 ($5.87) and +6.6% above SMA50 ($5.74). 7D +4.44%, 30D +6.07%, 3M +18.15% (moderated further as the window rolls). -33.48% from 52wk high (improved from -36.3%). Trend now reads "up," though regime still tags "pullback" with a death cross flagged — the fragile bounce continues extending, still not a confirmed reversal. No contradiction of the prior call.

2026-07-25 tape note (Friday 2026-07-24 close): The bounce has extended further and the mixed-signal pattern has resolved. PTON $6.08, RSI 52.4 (cooled slightly from 57.2) — essentially flat vs the $6.12 checkpoint (-0.65% 7D), now +0.9% above SMA20 ($6.03) and +4.5% above SMA50 ($5.82). 30D +6.11% (roughly steady), 3M +17.37% (roughly steady). -34.46% from 52wk high (roughly flat vs -33.48%). Notably, the death cross flag has cleared and golden cross now reads true (from death-cross-persists at every prior checkpoint) — trend now reads "strong-up," and the regime label has shifted to "pullback" from a firmer base. No new fundamentals re-researched; this is the first checkpoint in this file where the moving-average structure itself, not just price momentum, has turned constructive.

2026-07-28 tape note: The recovery has extended into a real weekly move. PTON $6.55 (+7.7% vs $6.08), RSI 61.6 (up from 52.4) — now +7.8% above SMA20 (extended from +0.9%), +12% above SMA50 (extended from +4.5%), and +13.8% above SMA200 (extended from +5.6%). 7D has turned solidly positive at +2.99% (from -0.65%), 30D has extended to +13.52% (from +6.11%), and 3M is roughly steady at +17.59% (from +17.37%). -28.8% from 52wk high — narrowed from -34.46%, the best reading in this file's recent history. Golden cross remains confirmed. No new fundamentals re-researched; the constructive moving-average structure flagged 07/25 has now been confirmed by a real price move. 2026-07-31 tape note: PTON $6.39 (-2.44% vs $6.55), RSI 57 (cooled from 61.6). 7D +5.10% (accelerated from +2.99%), 30D +8.31% (decelerated from +13.52%), 3M +19.22% (accelerated from +17.59%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -30.54% (widened from -28.80%). Per the tape: trend "strong-up", regime "pullback", golden cross intact. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-07-31 close). 2026-08-08 tape note: PTON $5.68 (-11.11% vs $6.39), RSI 41.3 (cooled from 57.0). 7D -11.11% (turned negative from +5.10%), 30D -1.73% (turned negative from +8.31%), 3M -0.18% (turned negative from +19.22%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -29.13% (narrowed from -30.54%). Per the tape: trend "down", regime "downtrend", golden cross intact. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-08-07 close). 2026-08-14 tape note: PTON $5.63 (-0.88% vs $5.68), RSI 41.5 (warmed from 41.3). 7D -0.88% (moderated from -11.11%), 30D -11.06% (deepened from -1.73%), 3M n/a% (data gap from -0.18%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -39.57% (widened from -29.13%). Per the tape: trend "down", regime "downtrend", golden cross intact. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-08-14 close).

Price Data

Key Changes vs 2026-07-28

Action Matrix

Context

At the May 29 refresh (RSI 75, $6.40, 3M +64.1%), the read was "RSI 75 = overbought; do not chase." That call was correct: the stock pulled back -10.6% to $5.72 with RSI resetting to 52. The turnaround momentum thesis is still intact — 3M +38.5% is still a substantial move, and the near-SMA20 setup with neutral RSI is the cleaner entry point.

The structural picture hasn't changed: -37.83% from 52wk high means significant damage to repair. The turnaround thesis requires confirmed subscriber stabilization or cost-structure improvement in upcoming earnings. Until then, this is momentum-riding a speculative recovery — small size, tight stop.

Key questions unchanged from prior:

• Does Q4 or Q1 2026 show subscriber stabilization or cost-structure improvement?
• Is this a short-squeeze / meme-money bounce or a fundamental re-rate?
• Does the SMA20 hold as support, or does $5.72 break lower?

Research Log

Sources

• Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-31 close — *.
• Prior-cycle history: this file's dated update log (refreshed each full scan).