Editorial Note: RDDT at $175.39, RSI 54.8, +5.5% above SMA20 ($166.19), +10.23% 30D, +21.52% 3M, -38.01% from 52wk high ($282.95). Since the May 29 refresh ($176, RSI 63.3, +11.1% above SMA20), the price is essentially flat (-0.3%) while RSI has cooled from 63.3 to 54.8 — the stock has spent three weeks digesting the May surge, with the SMA20 rising from $158 to $166 to meet the price. The recovery thesis (AI data licensing + ad platform) has held; the +21.52% 3M confirms the bid is sustained, not a dead-cat bounce. RSI 54.8 is now solidly neutral — the overbought-adjacent reading from May has reset, which is constructive for re-entry. The ideal sub-$160 entry from prior refreshes is still missed, but the SMA20 has caught up to the low-$166 area, tightening the re-entry band.

2026-07-11 tape note: RDDT $195.34 (07-10), RSI 59.5 — up +11.4% from the $175.39 (06-16) checkpoint, extending the recovery further. Now +8.9% above a rising SMA20 ($179.35, up from $166.19). 30D +12.74%, 3M +30.79% (both accelerated), -30.96% from 52wk high (narrowed from -38.01%). Regime "pullback" but trend "up," thesis flag intact — reads as continuation of the constructive consolidation, not a break. Insider-selling bear case (per 06-16 figures) not re-checked since.

2026-07-17 tape note: The recovery has pulled back. RDDT $181.18 (07-16), RSI 48.3 (down from 59.5) — down -7.3% from the $195.34 checkpoint, now -2% below SMA20 ($184.85) for the first time in this file's recent history, though still +5.2% above SMA50. 7D -7.25%, 30D +3.56% (moderated from +12.74%), 3M +8.96% (moderated from +30.79%). -35.97% from 52wk high (widened from -30.96%). Regime now "downtrend." No new fundamentals re-researched; insider-selling bear case still not re-checked. This reads as giving back part of the recovery, not a thesis break.

2026-07-25 tape note: The pullback has deepened into a full breakdown. RDDT $168.73 (07-24), RSI 41.8 (down from 48.3) — down -6.9% from the $181.18 checkpoint, now -9.8% below SMA20 ($187.13) and -2.9% below SMA50 ($173.80) for the first time in this file's recent history, a new SMA50 breach. 7D -6.87%, 30D +4.98% (roughly flat vs +3.56%), 3M +8.94% (roughly flat vs +8.96%). -40.35% from 52wk high (widened from -35.97%). Trend now "strong-down," regime "downtrend." No new fundamentals re-researched; insider-selling bear case still not re-checked. This extends the breakdown flagged 07/17, not a reversal.

2026-07-28 tape note: The breakdown has partially reversed. RDDT $178.44 (07-28), RSI 48.7 (up from 41.8) — up +5.75% from the $168.73 checkpoint, now -5.1% below SMA20 (narrowed from -9.8%) and back above SMA50 (+2.1%, reclaiming the breach flagged 07/25). 7D has improved to -3.98% (from -6.87%), 30D has moderated to +2.32% (from +4.98%), and 3M has extended to +20.77% (from +8.94%). -36.94% from 52wk high (narrowed from -40.35%). No new fundamentals re-researched; insider-selling bear case still not re-checked. This reads as a partial recovery from the 07/25 breakdown, not yet a confirmed reversal. 2026-07-31 tape note: RDDT $140.67 (-21.17% vs $178.44), RSI 30.2 (cooled from 48.7). 7D -16.63% (deepened from -3.98%), 30D -28.87% (turned negative from +2.32%), 3M -15.50% (turned negative from +20.77%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -50.28% (widened from -36.94%). Per the tape: trend "strong-down", regime "downtrend", no golden cross. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-07-31 close). 2026-08-08 tape note: RDDT $161.70 (+14.95% vs $140.67), RSI 45 (warmed from 30.2). 7D +14.95% (turned positive from -16.63%), 30D -17.21% (moderated from -28.87%), 3M +3.79% (turned positive from -15.50%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -45.13% (narrowed from -50.28%). Per the tape: trend "strong-down", regime "downtrend", death cross confirmed. Reddit's Q2 landed 2026-07-30 — EPS $1.25 vs $0.96 est. (+29.6% surprise, beat) — yet the stock fell -21.0% across the print per the desk's earnings-event record; today's bounce reads as recovery off that post-earnings selloff, not a fresh catalyst. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-08-07 close). 2026-08-14 tape note: RDDT $178.09 (+10.14% vs $161.70), RSI 55.3 (warmed from 45). 7D +10.14% (moderated from +14.95%), 30D -10.07% (moderated from -17.21%), 3M +12.59% (accelerated from +3.79%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -37.06% (corrected 2026-08-15 — this note originally carried -44.12% from a stale 52wk-high snapshot field; bars-verified against the true $282.95 peak of 2025-09-18, the 08-08 note's -45.13% was likewise stale, bars-true -42.85%; class: ERROR-PATTERNS stale-snapshot-field). Per the tape: trend "up", regime "pullback", death cross confirmed. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-08-14 close).

The Story Right Now

Reddit at $175.39, RSI 54.8, strong-up, -38.01% from its 52wk high ($282.95). The SMA20 is $166.19, and RDDT is +5.5% above it — a much tighter spread than the +11.1% at the May 29 refresh, reflecting three weeks of sideways digestion while the moving average rose to meet price. The 7D +1.83% is muted (the big weekly surge from May has cooled). The 30D +10.23% remains solid. The 3M +21.52% confirms this is a sustained recovery.

The fundamental thesis — AI data licensing + ad platform recovery — remains intact. Google's $60M/yr Reddit data licensing deal (signed 2024) + OpenAI integration (2025) means RDDT generates roughly $200M/yr in pure-margin data revenue on top of its ad business. Every new foundation model trained is a potential incremental Reddit license. That thesis hasn't changed since the May refresh.

The contextual shift: at $176 (May 29, RSI 63.3), the read was "recovery intact but ideal entry missed." At $175.39 today with RSI cooled to 54.8 and price now only +5.5% above a rising SMA20, the setup is more constructive for a re-entry than it was three weeks ago. The heavy insider selling (-$472.7M YTD, 96 sells vs 4 buys) remains the principal bear-case anchor — that pattern hasn't changed in this cycle.

Action: Constructive consolidation. RSI 54.8 + price tightening to SMA20 = a cleaner re-entry band ($165-$172) than the chase at the May highs. Watch for the next leg or a pullback to SMA20 ($166).

Quick Snapshot

Action Matrix

Price Data

Key Changes vs 2026-07-28

Company Overview

Reddit, Inc. — social platform built on user-generated communities ("subreddits") moderated by volunteers. Founded 2005 by Steve Huffman (CEO) and Alexis Ohanian. IPO'd March 21, 2024 at $34. ~2,555 employees. Revenue mix: digital advertising (~85%) + data licensing (15% and growing). Key 2024-25 catalysts that drove the run-up: Google data deal ($60M/yr, expandable), OpenAI partnership, S&P 600 inclusion, AI-search integration.

Competitive Analysis

The best peer comparison isn't another social platform — it's the AI infrastructure cohort the brief flags as parabolic. RDDT is the demand-side analog: you can't run a frontier LLM without scraping or licensing social data, and the legal walls being built around scraping (Reddit's vs. Anthropic, vs. Perplexity, vs. internet archive) make licensing the only durable channel.

Management

Financials

• Revenue Growth: +69.7% YoY (Q4 2025). Q1 2026 pending Q1 2026 filed: $663.4M, +69.1% YoY — steady, not accelerating (corrected 2026-08-03: the 10-Q had been on file since April; the July 30 Q2 print is the one not yet in the filing caches)
• Earnings beat rate: 100% (since IPO)
• Revenue acceleration: +6.98% — re-acceleration off the 2025 cooldown
• Operating model: Advertising mix is the bulk; data licensing is the growth gem
• Cash position: ~$1.8B post-IPO (single-source figure — filed cash alone was $1.37B at Q1 2026; the investments component is not broken out in the desk's filing caches); no near-term capital need

Valuation

P/S multiple has compressed from ~100x at peak to ~50-60x today (still rich on a SaaS scorecard but not absurd given +69% YoY growth). At $175.39, essentially flat vs the May refresh, the multiple is unchanged. Bears say "any social media name shouldn't trade at SaaS multiples"; bulls say "Reddit isn't a social-media name, it's an AI-data-licensing name with social-media revenue subsidy." Pick a side.

Bull Case

1. Data licensing as compounder. Every new foundation model trained = potential incremental Reddit license. Anthropic, Mistral, Cohere, Meta Llama, xAI all need post-2023 internet text. Reddit is the cleanest legal source.
2. Earnings beat streak intact. 100% beat rate since IPO is rare for any growth name; the company has not missed a print yet.
3. First-to-base in busted-SaaS cohort. The sustained +20%+ recovery while SNOW/ZS/WDAY are still strong-down is durable information — RDDT's thesis is differentiated enough that the basket beta isn't dragging it.
4. Search displacement tailwind. As LLM-powered search erodes Google's ad share, Reddit's "answer-shape" content gets more valuable both as training data and as an indexable substrate.

Bear Case

1. Insider tape. -$472.7M net selling is a screaming signal. Lockup mostly expired but management still selling aggressively means they don't see the chart's bullishness as durable.
2. User-base growth slowing. Q4 2025 DAU growth decelerated; the AI-search thesis means Google is sending fewer users to Reddit, replacing them with bots and AI agents. That's bad for ad revenue per user.
3. Margin compression from AI moderation. Reddit faces real costs scaling content moderation as bot/AI content floods subreddits. The volunteer-moderator model wasn't designed for this.
4. Multiple compression risk. P/S still ~50-60x. If revenue growth decelerates from 69% to 30% (still fine), the multiple gets re-rated harder.
5. The cultural-thesis-basket parallel. Today's brief noted that cultural arbitrage has fully unwound. If RDDT is being mentally bucketed with LULU/NKE/BRBR by indexers, sympathetic selling could resume.

Historical News

• March 2024: IPO at $34/share, opened at $47, closed first day +48%
• June 2024: S&P 600 inclusion → bid up to $80
• Aug 2024: Q2 first earnings print as public — beat, stock to $115
• Late 2024 - early 2025: Run from $115 → $282 on AI-search/data narrative + Google deal expansion rumors
• Mid 2025: Multiple compression begins as broader SaaS death takes hold (ZS, SNOW, WDAY all down -40%+)
• Q4 2025 - Q1 2026: -50% drawdown completes; lockups expire; insiders dump
• April-May 2026 (current): Sustained +20%+ recovery; basing complete; recovery underway

Related ETFs

• SOCL (Global X Social Media ETF) — RDDT is a top-3 holding by weight
• GAMR (Roundhill Sports & Entertainment) — small RDDT weight
• WCLD (WisdomTree Cloud Computing) — RDDT not in WCLD currently (interesting given the SaaS basket comparison)
• PSCT (Invesco S&P SmallCap Information Technology) — small weight
• No major AI-thesis ETF holds RDDT in size — coverage gap on the AI side

Cross-References

• Watchlists: watching (added 2026-06-16 to close the prior coverage gap; could also fit cultural-thesis or a new ai-data-licensing)
• Recent scans (Apr 28 archive): Not flagged in any 2026-04-28 scan
• Holdings: Not held (no paper persona, no real account)
• Perspectives: No active perspective directly covers Reddit; closest is protein-economy (cultural-arbitrage paradigm, but different vehicle shape)

Related Tickers

• AI-data-licensing peers: GOOGL (customer), MSFT (customer via OpenAI), META (data-rich incumbent)
• Busted-SaaS cohort comparison: SNOW, ZS, WDAY, VEEV, TEAM, NOW
• Social-platform peers: META, PINS, SNAP
• Cultural-thesis cohort (different paradigm): LULU, NKE, BRBR, HIMS, DPZ

Open Questions / What to Watch

1. Q1 2026 earnings — guidance on data-licensing pipeline is the binary. Beat-and-raise = $200+ in months. Miss = back to $130s.
2. Lockup completion / insider selling rate. Watch the -$472M YTD figure — if it slows in Q2, the bear-case anchor weakens.
3. DAU growth. Most important user-side metric; if Q4 2025 deceleration continues into Q1, the ad-revenue thesis fractures.
4. New foundation-model data deals. Any Anthropic, Mistral, or xAI announcement = catalyst.
5. Sympathetic moves. Does META catch the same bid? GOOGL? If yes = ad-tech rotation real. If no = idiosyncratic, possibly fragile.
6. Fresh price history. RESOLVED 2026-06-16 — RDDT added to the watching watchlist and backfilled; now covered.

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Research Log

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Filed: 2026-05-01. Refreshed: 2026-05-29, 2026-06-16, 2026-07-11, 2026-07-17, 2026-07-25, 2026-07-28, 2026-07-31. RSI 30.2 has now crossed below the file's own stated 40 trigger — the RSI 30.2 print satisfies that condition; next refresh: post-Q1 earnings or a fresh RSI cross above 75 / below 30, whichever first.

Sources

• Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-31 close — *.
• Prior-cycle history: this file's dated update log (refreshed each full scan).