SKHY Deep Dive — July 31, 2026

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SKHY Deep Dive — July 31, 2026

1 tickers referenced · published Aug 14, 2026

Article published Aug 14, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.

SKHY $171.38 +11.3% 30d

Editorial Note (first profile — intake was late): SK hynix listed on Nasdaq as SKHY on 2026-07-10 in the largest-ever ADR offering, and the desk published a full pre-debut report on 2026-07-06 ("SK Hynix Lists on Nasdaq as SKHY") with a standing call of watch — buy the base, not the open. But the ticker itself was never taken into coverage: it sat in no watchlist, so no summary, no scans, no refreshes — the desk-call target file flagged the missing data twice (07-11, 07-17) with no consumer for the request. Coverage starts today, 13 trading days late, with the stock −33% from its life high and the Q2 print landing the same morning. The intake-process fix ships alongside this profile.

2026-07-29 read (intraday ~10:35 AM PT; settled anchor = the 2026-07-28 close): SKHY $130.17 at Tuesday's close, roughly $127 intraday today — −21.6% below the $166 offer price and −33.2% below the $194.80 life high (07-14). The last four sessions were the break: $169.50 → $154.57 → $143.02 → $130.17, −23.2% in four days on 26–51M ADRs/day, straight into this morning's Q2 report. The decline is cohort, not idiosyncratic: at Tuesday's close MU sat −34.6% from its high, STX −34.7%, WDC −42.1%, SNDK −53.4%, Samsung (005930.KS) −41.3%, and EWY −31.4% — the whole memory complex is unwinding together, with the Korea tape (EWY −12.4% in 7 days) adding beta. SKHY's drawdown is dead-center of that pack. Against the falling price stands a rising business: this morning's Q2 was another all-time record with margins expanding, and the HBM4/HBM4E roadmap is running ahead of the schedule our July 6 report assumed.

2026-07-31 tape note: The series is long enough now for an honest RSI read — SKHY is at $143.73, RSI 44 (first computable RSI in this file; regime still tags "too-young" pending a full SMA series). Price has recovered +10.4% off the 07-28 settled close ($130.17) and sits −26.22% from the $194.80 life high (narrowed from −33.2%), though still −13.4% below the $166 offer. 7D −7.01% and 30D −14.45% (same window as since-debut, series still short) show the bounce hasn't fully repaired the post-Q2 air-pocket. Cohort-wide, the memory complex has also stabilized off its lows: MU −34.42% from high (RSI 43.8), STX −25.23% (RSI 50), WDC −31.88% (RSI 51), SNDK −48.4% (RSI 40.8, still worst of the group), Samsung (005930.KS) −33.38% (RSI 46.1), and EWY −28.88% (RSI 42.1) — SKHY remains mid-pack. No fresh company-specific news identified in this data beyond the 07-29 Q2 print already logged; per the July 31 full scan (2026-07-31 close).

2026-08-08 tape note: The bounce has partly reversed. SKHY $137.91 (-4.05% vs $143.73), RSI 42.8 (cooled slightly from 44) — the series now carries a computable SMA20 for the first time ($153.19), and price sits -10% below it. 1D -3.92%, 7D -4.05% (deepened from -7.01% in the sense that the whole window is now negative-and-widening rather than recovering), 30D -17.92% (deepened from -14.45%). From the life high, the gap is -22.47% (narrowed from -26.22% — the life-high reference itself may be shifting as the series lengthens; treat with the same single-source caution as prior reads). Regime still tags "too-young." No fresh company-specific news identified in this data; no new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-08-07 close). 2026-08-14 tape note: The reversal is sharp — SKHY $166.33 (+20.61% vs $137.91), RSI 53.5 (warmed from 42.8), and price has reclaimed SMA20 ($149.90, +11.0% above — from -10% below on 08-08). 7D +20.61% (turned positive from -4.05%), 30D -5.74% (moderated from -17.92%). From the life high, the gap is -14.95% (narrowed sharply from -22.47%). SMA50/200 remain unavailable — the series is still too young for a full moving-average read; regime still tags "too-young." News not pulled for this move; no new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-08-14 close).

Quick Snapshot

Indicator Value Signal
Last settled close $143.73 (2026-07-31) +10.4% off the 07-28 settled close ($130.17)
RSI (14) 44 First computable read in this file — neutral-weak
SMAs n/a Series still too young for an honest SMA20/50/200 read
From life high −26.22% (vs $194.80, 07-14) Narrowed from −33.2% on 07-29
From offer price ~−13.4% (vs $166) Still underwater vs the debut offer
VWAP since debut $158.56 Price ~9.4% below — average debut buyer still under water
Anchored VWAP from low $140.09 Price is sitting just above it
Value area $145.22–$177.30 (POC $167.09) Mostly overhead still
Liquidity ~45.7M ADRs/day (07-31) Deeply liquid from day one
Regime too-young Series still too short for an honest regime read

Action Matrix

Scenario Level Notes
Desk call (standing, 07-06 report) Watch "First clean post-debut base — not the open." Condition still unmet: 14 sessions, zero base
First reference for a base Hold above ~$125 (life low) for multiple weeks A base needs time; four straight red closes is the opposite
Overhead on any reclaim $151–167 Value-area low then POC — where two weeks of volume traded
Invalidation (price leg) Triggered "Debut air-pocket breaks down without basing" — it broke below the offer without ever basing
Invalidation (fundamental legs) Not triggered DRAM ASP momentum is positive (record Q2, margins expanding); HBM4E is ahead of schedule, not slipping
Review by 2026-08-01 Per the standing desk-call target

The tension is the whole setup: the price leg of the invalidation fired while both fundamental legs strengthened. Per the trend-hold book that still resolves to watch — a falling knife with great fundamentals is not a base. What would change the call: the first multi-week hold above the life low with contracting volume, or a reclaim of the value-area low ($151) that sticks.

Price Data

Metric Value
Close (2026-08-14) $166.33
Change 1d / 7d / 30d +0.40% / +20.61% / -5.74%
Life high / low $194.80 (07-14) / $124.80 (07-29 intraday)
Offer price / debut open / debut close ~$166 / $170.00 / $168.01 (107.7M ADRs)
RSI (14) 53.5 (warmed from 42.8)
SMA20 $149.90 (+11.0%) — price has reclaimed SMA20, from -10.0% below on 08-08
SMA50/200, golden cross n/a — series still too young

The tape so far (14 sessions, all of them)

Debut 07-10: opened $170 (+2.4% over offer), closed $168.01 on 107.7M ADRs. 07-13: dumped to $152.35 — the same day Seoul fell ~15% post-debut (captured 07-13). 07-14: ripped +28.8% off that low to the $194.80 life high, closing $193.92 — the speculative crescendo. Then a five-session fade to ~$151, a three-day bounce to $169.50 (07-23), and the four-day, −23.2% collapse into the Q2 print. There has been no base at any point — the tape has been air-pocket, spike, and unwind.

The money — Q2 2026, reported this morning (2026-07-29)

Verified against the company release (SK hynix Newsroom):

Q2 2026 (K-IFRS) Value vs Q1 2026
Revenue ₩79.32T ₩52.58T (+51% QoQ; +257% YoY)
Operating profit ₩60.54T (76% margin) ₩37.61T (~72% margin) — margin expanded
Net profit ₩93.92T (118% net margin) Net exceeds revenue; the release gives no breakdown — non-operating items dominate, unexplained. Treat the net line with caution
H1 cumulative revenue crossed ₩100T First time in company history

Roadmap: HBM4 mass shipments began in Q2 with the ramp planned for H2; HBM4E completed sample shipments in H1 — ahead of the "samples H2 2026" timeline in our July 6 report. Capex language emphasized "CapEx Discipline" with phased build-out (P&T7 packaging, M17 NAND, new cluster) — directly addressed at the lane's standing #1 risk, the capex glut.

The bear reads, same morning: one outlet framed the record as a miss vs estimates (Quartz); Investing.com flagged the ADR trading at a steep premium to the Seoul line as an AI-bubble tell — an SKHY-specific risk, since a premium can compress even if Seoul holds. Against that: Citi reiterated Buy calling the pullback unjustified "peak-out" fear, and Bernstein stayed bullish on memory after the Samsung–NVIDIA deals (all 2026-07-29 news pull).

Cohort check (2026-07-31 closes)

Name From 52wk high 7D 30D RSI Note
SKHY −26.22% −7.01% −14.45% 44 Recovering off the post-Q2 low; series still short
MU −34.42% −10.63% −20.26% 43.8 The US-listed comp — deeper drawdown than SKHY now
STX −25.23% +0.52% −6.45% 50 Best-recovered of the group
WDC −31.88% +4.82% −8.95% 51
SNDK −48.4% −15.43% −40.22% 40.8 Worst in the complex
005930.KS (Samsung) −33.38% 0% −20.67% 46.1
EWY −28.88% −3.6% −15.31% 42.1 The Korea/KOSPI beta

SKHY is now mid-to-better-than-pack — its 7D/30D drawdown has narrowed faster than MU and SNDK, though STX and WDC have recovered further. This still reads as the memory-cohort unwind plus Korea beta stabilizing together, not a broken or a uniquely-repaired SKHY story. The instrument-specific overhangs (ADR premium, day-old supply digestion) are easing but not resolved.

Research Log

  • 2026-07-06 — Pre-debut company report published (digest.company-report) with the standing watch call; investigation on the four US-listing levers.
  • 2026-07-10 — Listed on Nasdaq. IPO event confirmed; the desk did not take the ticker into coverage (the gap this profile closes).
  • 2026-07-13 — One-off fetch during the Seoul −15% day; capture filed. No watchlist add — data went stale.
  • 2026-07-29 — Intake: promoted to the family's scanner/trade symbol, added to memory + ai-scan, first summary row (regime honestly "too-young"). Q2 record print verified against the company release. This profile.
  • 2026-07-31 — Tape refresh only: RSI now computable (44, first read), price $143.73, −26.22% from life high (narrowed from −33.2%). Cohort (MU/STX/WDC/SNDK/Samsung/EWY) also stabilizing off lows. No new fundamentals re-researched.
  • 2026-08-08 — Tape refresh only: price $137.91 (-4.05% vs 07-31), RSI 42.8, first computable SMA20 ($153.19, -10% below). 30D deepened to -17.92%. No new fundamentals re-researched.
  • 2026-08-14 — Tape refresh only: price $166.33 (+20.61% vs 08-08), RSI 53.5, reclaimed SMA20 ($149.90, +11.0% above). 7D +20.61% (turned positive), 30D -5.74% (moderated). -14.95% from life high (narrowed sharply from -22.47%). News not pulled for this move; no new fundamentals re-researched.

Sources