Article published Aug 14, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.
UMAC Price Structure
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The Story Right Now
Unusual Machines closed Friday at $34.06 after a +25.04% single session — the largest one-day move in the 22-name drone-defense book — on 15,895,000 shares, a relative volume of 4.31x and $541.4M of dollar volume (2026-08-14 close; series re-based same session after a missing Aug-10 bar was restored, which also corrects the week to +23.33%). The intraday high, $34.93, is a fresh 52-week high set the same session; the close sits 2.5% below it. The month is +83.91%, the three-month +110.25%, RSI 72.3, price 109.1% above its 200-day average. That is a distribution-scale tape event on a company that booked $16,722,467 of revenue in its most recent quarter. No source in the desk's corpus explains Friday's move. The four cached news items are all May–June merger coverage; a targeted social sweep returned two raw items and zero relevant ones; the only same-day artifact is a r/wallstreetbets gain screenshot titled "UMAC trump trade is unstoppable." Cause unknown — and that matters more than any narrative that could be retrofitted onto it.
What did happen, and is filed: the June-quarter 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-06) shows revenue of $16,722,467 against $2,123,970 in the year-ago June quarter, with gross profit of $5,802,134 against $794,679. Six-month revenue (2026-01-01 to 2026-06-30) was $24,818,304, more than double all of fiscal 2025's $11,199,217. This is not a rounding artifact or a reclassification; the components business found demand, which is exactly what the reshoring case predicted.
And here is the part the +25% day is not pricing. Operating income for the June quarter was −$7,834,143, worse than the year-ago quarter's −$7,190,473 despite roughly eight times the revenue. Operating cash flow for the six months was −$38,891,945. The company's two profitable quarters were not operational: in the March 2026 quarter, operating income of −$7,258,987 became net income of +$10,282,994 on $17,541,981 of non-operating income — $7,264,743 realized and $9,492,076 unrealized gains on investments. In the June quarter that engine reversed (unrealized: −$3,883,535), non-operating income collapsed to $50,590, and net income printed −$7,783,553. Unusual Machines runs a $39,273,449 equity-securities book at fair value (2026-06-30) alongside a drone-components business, and its bottom line has been swinging on the former.
The balance sheet is the genuine asset. Cash went from $5,000,661 (2025-03-31) to $222,939,674 (2026-03-31), with cash, equivalents and restricted cash at $229,598,776 at 2026-06-30. That war chest was bought with paper: shares outstanding went 16,830,170 (2025-03-31) → 49,956,505 (2026-06-30), and financing activities supplied $200,981,341 in the first half of 2026 alone. A fortress balance sheet and a dilution treadmill are the same fact viewed from two sides.
Extended analysis
What the Company Is Doing, and Says It Will Do
Unusual Machines is a Nevada corporation headquartered in Orlando, Florida, successor to a 2019 Puerto Rican entity, operating in the commercial drone industry — small drones and components sold B2B, through e-commerce and through retail, per the FY2025 annual report (filed 2026-03-12). It acquired Rotor Lab Pty. Ltd., an Australian company, in September 2025 (goodwill added during 2025: $8,193,199). It has a stated collaboration with Lantronix on autonomous drone components integrating edge AI compute with flight control.
The declared next move is vertical integration into power: on 2026-05-07 the company entered a merger agreement to acquire DroneNX LLC, operating as Upgrade Energy, a U.S. battery and power-systems manufacturer for unmanned aircraft — disclosed by current report filed 2026-05-11. Consideration is roughly $52 million: 1,792,012 shares struck at $13.9508, $1,000,000 cash, and an earn-out of up to $26,000,000 tied to revenue targets, with a second battery-pack facility planned in Orlando (deal terms per merger coverage; the underlying exhibit is not on disk). The deal is signed, not closed. No completion-of-acquisition report appears in the filing index through 2026-08-12, and goodwill sat unchanged at $15,596,105 from 2025-12-31 through the 2026-06-30 balance sheet — Upgrade Energy was not consolidated as of the last filed period.
Two governance items landed the week of the move and their contents are not established here: a Regulation FD current report filed 2026-08-11 (event dated 2026-08-10), and a current report filed 2026-08-12 covering a change in certifying accountant and an amendment to the articles or bylaws, alongside a preliminary proxy statement the same day for a meeting dated 2026-10-05. An auditor change and a charter amendment in the same filing, two days before a 25% day, are worth reading before acting on this name.
What the Street and Socials Say
Thin and stale. The cached coverage is four items, all describing the same May battery acquisition, from StockTitan, TipRanks, The Globe and Mail and Yahoo Finance; TipRanks' own model rates the name Neutral, "citing strong growth momentum tempered by ongoing losses and cash burn," which is a fair summary of the filings. A targeted social sweep on 2026-08-15 across the drone cohort produced zero clustered results. The one live retail artifact is a 60-point r/wallstreetbets gain post framing the name as a "trump trade." That is positioning temperature, not analysis, and it is a froth signature, not a thesis.
Setup
| Stock | Price | 1D | 7D | 30D | 3M | 52wkHi | RSI | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMAC | $34.06 | +25.04% | +23.33% | +83.91% | +110.25% | -2.5% | 72↑ | 🟠 Near Overbought | ⚠️ Avoid / Don't Chase |
Note: the 52-week high is $34.93, set intraday on 2026-08-14 itself (code-verified from the bar series); the summary feed briefly carried a stale −20.7% for this field on scan day, corrected same session.
Price sits 46.8% above its 20-day, 51.6% above its 50-day and 109.1% above its 200-day, with a golden cross in place and an uptrend regime. This is the single most extended name in the drone-defense book, it closed pennies under a fresh 52-week high, and it sits in the parabolic tier of the August 14 momentum screen and on that screen's overbought list. For a trend-hold horizon, the entry is not here.
- Entry zone $21–24 — where the value-area high ($21.09), the 50-day ($22.47) and the 20-day ($23.21) converge. Entry is a condition, not a price: a pullback that bases in that band rather than slicing through it.
- Stop $18.50 — below the anchored VWAP from the low ($19.28); next real shelf beneath is $15.89.
- Target $45 — trend extension only, contingent on the revenue ramp continuing and the battery deal closing. No valuation anchor supports it: nothing on disk (no estimates, no comparable multiples) provides a fundamental price anchor.
- Size as a speculative sleeve, never core — the drone-defense watchlist's own standing note treats the small-cap tier as scan candidates, not auto-buys.
Bull Case
Revenue is compounding off a real demand curve: $2,042,300 → $2,123,970 → $2,134,588 → $4,898,360 → $8,095,836 → $16,722,467 across the last six reported quarters. Gross profit scaled with it ($496,807 → $5,802,134 across the same span), so the ramp is not being bought with negative-margin volume. Inventories at $21,914,332 and receivables at $9,333,235 (both 2026-06-30, up from $1,214,290 and $50,950 at 2025-03-31) are the balance-sheet shadow of orders being built and shipped, not a story. The company has $229,598,776 of cash and restricted cash plus $47,500,000 of other short-term investments to fund a multi-year reshoring build without a financing gun to its head. Upgrade Energy takes the highest-value component in a drone — the pack — in-house and domestic, which is precisely the leverage point when procurement mandates push away from Chinese supply. And the demand tailwind is a budget line item, not a fad.
Bear Case
Eight times the revenue produced a wider operating loss. Operating expenses of $13,636,276 in the June quarter swamped $5,802,134 of gross profit, and research and development for that quarter was $430,759 — against $9,585,542 of share-based compensation for the six months. The two profitable quarters were investment marks, and the June quarter proved it by reversing. The share count roughly tripled in fifteen months and the equity raises have not stopped. The company has impaired goodwill before — accumulated goodwill impairment stood at $10,073,326 at 2025-12-31 — and is about to add more of it. The stock trades at a market value the operating business does not remotely support on any filed figure, the retail temperature is at "unstoppable," and the largest single-day move in the sector has no explanation on record.
Catalysts
| Catalyst | Status | What it changes |
|---|---|---|
| Upgrade Energy / DroneNX close | Signed 2026-05-07, not closed as of the 2026-06-30 balance sheet | First consolidated battery revenue plus 1,792,012 new shares; goodwill and the up-to-$26,000,000 earn-out land on the balance sheet |
| Q3 2026 print (period ending 2026-09-30) | Normal November reporting window | The only clean test: does operating income improve at all on the next revenue step, or does the loss widen a third straight quarter |
| Shareholder meeting, 2026-10-05 | Preliminary proxy filed 2026-08-12 | Contents unread; a share-authorization increase would confirm the treadmill continues |
| August 11–12 disclosures | Filed; exhibit text unread | A Regulation FD item and an auditor change plus a charter amendment, two days ahead of the +25% session |
| FY2027 NDAA drone and counter-UAS line items | Budget cycle ahead | The sector-level thesis falsifier; a cut breaks the whole layer |
Risks
The dilution treadmill is the headline risk and it is quantifiable. Shares outstanding at period end: 16,830,170 (2025-03-31), 25,287,786 (2025-06-30), 31,568,949 (2025-09-30), 37,759,911 (2025-12-31), 47,793,923 (2026-03-31), 49,956,505 (2026-06-30) — the last figure also being the cover-page count as of 2026-08-06. Weighted-average basic shares went 21,771,954 in the June 2025 quarter to 48,611,102 in the June 2026 quarter. The cash did not appear from operations; it was issued. Fiscal 2025 brought $72,145,636 of common-stock proceeds plus $5,744,927 from warrant exercises; the first half of 2026 added $200,981,341 of net financing inflow, with $138,799,993 of stock issued in the March quarter and $58,198,764 in the June quarter, funded through prospectus supplements filed 2026-03-19 and 2026-03-20. Every share of revenue growth so far has been matched by more shares.
The marked-to-market book is a second risk wearing a bull costume. A $39,273,449 equity-securities position at fair value means reported earnings will keep swinging on something other than drones — in both directions.
Operating leverage has not appeared. Three consecutive quarters of operating losses between −$7.2M and −$9.7M while revenue went from $4.9M to $16.7M is the opposite of a scaling business, and six-month operating cash burn of $38,891,945 means the war chest has a clock on it even at $229.6M.
Governance and coverage gaps. A change in certifying accountant filed 2026-08-12 is unexplained on the desk's evidence. The filing index shows Form 4s on 2026-07-28 (three), 2026-06-09, 2026-06-05, 2026-06-02, 2026-05-29 and 2026-05-22, plus proposed-sale notices clustered in late May and early June, but the transaction amounts are not on hand. Absence of insider data is a gap, not a clean bill.
Financials
All figures as filed; quarterly columns are three-month periods unless labeled. Cash figures follow the SEC XBRL filings where they disagree with the vendor cache (see basis note).
Quarterly series (US GAAP, as reported)
| Period end | Revenue | Gross profit | Operating income | Net income | Operating cash flow | Wtd-avg basic shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-31 (Q1) | $2,042,300 | $496,807 | −$3,267,811 | −$3,266,279 | −$1,193,628 | 15,902,473 |
| 2025-06-30 (Q2) | $2,123,970 | $794,679 | −$7,190,473 | −$6,964,739 | −$2,668,721 | 21,771,954 |
| 2025-09-30 (Q3) | $2,134,588 | $840,388 | −$4,961,737 | +$1,603,465 | −$7,531,945 | 30,002,179 |
| 2025-12-31 (Q4) | $4,898,360 | $1,774,974 | −$9,732,039 | −$10,566,064 | −$9,783,326 | not reliable in cache |
| 2026-03-31 (Q1) | $8,095,836 | $2,654,107 | −$7,258,987 | +$10,282,994 | −$17,412,987 | 46,708,842 |
| 2026-06-30 (Q2) | $16,722,467 | $5,802,134 | −$7,834,143 | −$7,783,553 | −$21,478,958 | 48,611,102 |
Full-year 2025 (10-K filed 2026-03-12): revenue $11,199,217, gross profit $3,906,847, operating income −$25,152,060, net income −$19,193,617, diluted EPS −$0.74, operating cash flow −$21,177,620, capital expenditures $2,062,181. Six months 2026 (10-Q filed 2026-08-06): revenue $24,818,304, gross profit $8,456,241, operating income −$15,093,130, net income +$2,499,441 (the six-month cumulative — the June quarter itself was −$7,783,553), operating cash flow −$38,891,945, investing −$35,786,762, financing +$200,981,341.
Where the profit came from (non-operating detail, as filed in the 10-Qs)
| Period | Operating income | Realized investment gains | Unrealized investment gains | Interest and other income | Total non-operating | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-01 → 2026-03-31 | −$7,258,987 | +$7,264,743 | +$9,492,076 | $792,078 | +$17,541,981 | +$10,282,994 |
| 2026-04-01 → 2026-06-30 | −$7,834,143 | +$2,267,931 | −$3,883,535 | $1,820,162 | +$50,590 | −$7,783,553 |
Balance sheet (period end, US GAAP)
| Period end | Cash and equivalents | Equity securities at fair value | Other short-term investments | Inventories | Receivables | Total equity | Shares outstanding |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-31 | $5,000,661 | — | — | $1,214,290 | $50,950 | $15,895,002 | 16,830,170 |
| 2025-06-30 | $38,933,059 | — | — | $1,609,117 | $173,388 | $51,307,461 | 25,287,786 |
| 2025-09-30 | $64,285,750 | — | $16,849,713 | $3,118,491 | $309,544 | $106,015,915 | 31,568,949 |
| 2025-12-31 | $103,261,397 | $39,214,909 | — | $5,316,648 | $1,564,739 | $174,939,669 | 37,759,911 |
| 2026-03-31 | $222,939,674 | $48,156,983 | $12,500,000 | $13,827,189 | $3,128,885 | $331,637,400 | 47,793,923 |
| 2026-06-30 | $229,598,776 (incl. restricted) | $39,273,449 | $47,500,000 | $21,914,332 | $9,333,235 | $388,040,737 | 49,956,505 |
Goodwill $15,596,105 and intangibles $2,452,610 at 2026-06-30, both unchanged from 2025-12-31; accumulated goodwill impairment $10,073,326 at 2025-12-31. Contingent-consideration liability $3,000,000 at 2026-06-30. Share-based compensation $9,585,542 for the six months to 2026-06-30 ($15,619,929 for full-year 2025). Research and development $430,759 in the June 2026 quarter. Warrants outstanding: zero at both 2026-03-31 and 2026-06-30. Public float $197,646,688 as measured at 2025-06-30 per the FY2025 annual report. No short-interest data is on hand for this name, so positioning context is absent from this dive.
Basis note: the June 2026 cash figure is the cash, cash-equivalents and restricted-cash total — the plain cash-and-equivalents tag was not filed for that date in the cached facts. The vendor statement cache carries $75,285,752 of cash at 2025-09-30 against the filing's $64,285,750; the filed figure is used. The vendor's 3,405,025 share-count field for the 2025-12-31 quarter is internally inconsistent with its own EPS and is excluded.
Cross-references
- Drone Defense — The Budget Line Item That Reshores (perspective opened 2026-08-14): this dive tests that perspective's stated UMAC watch condition — the Upgrade Energy close and share count versus revenue growth. The revenue side passes; the share-count side does not. The perspective's line that UMAC's profit quarters are mark-driven, not operational, is now confirmed against the filings, with the March 2026 quarter's $17,541,981 of non-operating income as the receipt.
- Drone-defense read, August 14, 2026: UMAC led the 22-name book on the session, week and month, with RCAT (+8.80% on the day) and ONDS (+3.70%) also ahead of the primes AVAV (+1.78%) and KTOS (+2.85%). The scan names the live test — small-caps leading while the primes lag reads as froth; the 30-day window, where AVAV's +36.53% beats RCAT and ONDS, argues the primes are not actually lagging. UMAC is the most extended member of the cohort by a wide margin.
- Military drone supply-chain blind trace verdict, May 25, 2026: places UMAC at layer 3 (propulsion/energy) and layer 4 (guidance/autonomy) of the six-layer chain, explicitly as a small-cap components name — the layer the Upgrade Energy deal doubles down on.
- Momentum screen, August 14, 2026: UMAC sits in the parabolic tier (109.1% above its 200-day) and on the overbought list (RSI 72). It does not appear in the deep-drawdown turn screen. This is the opposite of the steady-climber shape a trend-hold book wants at entry, which is why the Setup is a condition and not a price.
- Earnings event record for August 2026: the calendar stub was dated 2026-08-10, but the results release (Item 2.02 current report) and the 10-Q were both filed 2026-08-06. This dive supplies the missing coverage; the event record's date was a provider estimate.
- Sibling dive — AVAV, same August 14 cycle; opposite risk shapes in the same theme.
Sources
- SEC 10-Q, period ended 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-06
- SEC 10-K, fiscal year 2025, filed 2026-03-12
- SEC 10-Q, period ended 2026-03-31, filed 2026-05-14
- SEC 8-K, entry into material definitive agreement (Upgrade Energy), event 2026-05-07, filed 2026-05-11
- SEC 8-K, results of operations (Item 2.02), filed 2026-08-06
- SEC 8-K, Items 4.01 / 5.03, filed 2026-08-12
- SEC preliminary proxy statement, filed 2026-08-12, meeting dated 2026-10-05
- StockTitan — Unusual Machines signs merger agreement to acquire Upgrade Energy
- TipRanks — Unusual Machines Announces Merger to Expand Battery Manufacturing
- r/wallstreetbets, "UMAC trump trade is unstoppable," 2026-08-14
- Tape: drone-defense (2026-08-14 close); 52-week high code-verified from 12m
- Financials: edgar{key-financials,company-facts,submissions}.json
, massive{income-statements,balance-sheets,cash-flow-statements}.json - News/social: latest, 2026-08-14-wallstreetbets-umac-trump-trade-is-unstoppable-1vo9uqi, 2026-08-15-social-search-umac-avav-rcat-mvis-rddt-mu-sndk-nbis-cbrs-aaoi-lp
- Context: README, 2026-08-14-drone-defense, 2026-08-14-monster-scan, 2026-05-25-military-drone-supply-chain-blind-test-verdict
