EOW Phase 0a refresh: the collapse pocket reopens on a book-wide cooldown, but most of it reads as pullback not reversal; InP-capacity read still attributed only
Update
EOW Phase 0a refresh: the collapse pocket reopens on a book-wide cooldown, but most of it reads as pullback not reversal; InP-capacity read still attributed only
- Type: refresh (subtype: regime-tag reopen + long-horizon corroboration)
- event_id:
2026-08-22-optical-supercycle-eow-phase-0a-refresh - Source: 2026-08-22-optical-supply-chain (collapse pocket reopened to several names after two clean cycles; long-horizon split within that group).
- Shift: A broad, book-wide cooldown across the wider optical/photonics complex reopened the collapse-regime pocket for the first time in two clean cycles. The great majority of the newly collapse-tagged names remain up sharply on the trailing year — violent pullbacks inside trends that haven't actually broken — while one name in the wider complex is the exception where the annual number agrees with the short-term tag (negative trailing year, thesis rated no-view). No fresh primary-source event landed this cycle to resolve the standing InP-capacity-constraint question at COHR; the attributed commentary already on file from the 08-14/08-13 entries stands uncorroborated by a filed receipt.
- Effect on thesis: HOLD, unchanged. The complex-wide cooldown reads as shared AI-infra rotation, not evidence against the demand case. AXTI's derate event-verify remains the most overdue open item.
- Per-ticker: No individual key_ticker singled out this cycle beyond the collapse-pocket split already described; AXTI — still unresolved. No numeric tape reads restated in this Phase 0a entry.
Related
2 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.