The collapse pocket in this book nearly doubled this cycle — from six names to eleven — as AVAV, KTOS, ESLT, ONDS, and RCAT all flipped fresh into collapse. But that headline count overstates the damage: only AVAV, KTOS, and RCAT have the trailing-year data to back it up (negative one-year returns, negative alpha, well below their 200-day). ESLT and ONDS are still up 46.1% and 38.6% over the trailing year with positive alpha — violent pullbacks landing on top of intact trends, not fresh breakdowns. MSI still leads the book on RSI at 67.5, but its own alpha1y is negative — a reminder that a strong week doesn't automatically mean a strong year.

Data as-of the 2026-08-28 close for the full 22-name book — no staleness this cycle. The comparison baseline below is the August 22 scan.

This cycle's headline is how fast the collapse pocket grew. AVAV and KTOS both downgraded straight from downtrend to collapse — RSI fell to 39.7 and 42.5 — and the trailing-year data agrees with the downgrade rather than arguing against it: AVAV is down 40.57% over 12 months with an alpha1y of -60.44 and sits 31.6% below its 200-day; KTOS is down 24.1% with an alpha1y of -43.97 and sits 28% below its 200-day. RCAT joined them, its regime flipping from downtrend to collapse as RSI fell to 42.9 — its trailing year remains essentially flat-to-negative at -6.08% with a negative alpha1y of -25.96, continuing the mismatch flagged last cycle between its recent 30-day bounce and its weak annual performance.

ESLT and ONDS also flipped fresh into collapse this cycle, but the trailing-year check tells a different story for both. ESLT's RSI fell to 32.0 and it now trades 9.4% below its 20-day average, but it's still up 46.1% over the trailing year with a positive alpha1y of 26.22. ONDS's RSI fell to 43.6 with a 30-day return that's still positive at +16.18%, and it remains up 38.6% over the trailing year with a positive alpha1y of 18.72. Both look like violent pullbacks landing on top of trends that haven't actually broken — the fresh collapse tag is a chart-structure call, not a verdict on the underlying trend.

MSI remains the strongest name in the book on RSI (67.5, still the highest reading, still tagged uptrend), but its own trailing year is barely positive at +3.38% with a negative alpha1y of -16.49 — strong near-term structure sitting on top of an unremarkable annual performance, the same mismatch flagged last cycle. AXON shows a mirror-image pattern: its trailing year is negative (-23.17%) with a negative alpha1y (-43.04), but it now trades 18.6% above its 200-day with a still-positive 30-day return — a real recovery in progress even though the annual lens still reads red. PL's thesis remains explicitly rated broken in the underlying data; its technicals agree, with the collapse regime holding and RSI now down to 32.1, even as its startling +177.12% trailing-year print likely reflects an early-year base effect rather than a durable trend.

DRSHF remains the one name in this book with no long-horizon counter-argument in any direction: down 42.27% over the trailing year, 39.5% below its 200-day, RSI at 38.8, still tagged collapse. Every window agrees this name is weak.

• AVAV: regime downgraded downtrend → collapse; RSI 44.3 → 39.7; the trailing year (-40.57%) and alpha1y (-60.44) both confirm rather than argue against the new tag.
• KTOS: regime downgraded downtrend → collapse; RSI 51.6 → 42.5; trailing year -24.1%, alpha1y -43.97, both confirming.
• RCAT: regime downgraded downtrend → collapse; RSI 51.7 → 42.9; trailing year still flat-to-negative at -6.08%.
• ESLT: regime downgraded pullback → collapse; RSI 38.0 → 32.0; but trailing year is still +46.1% with positive alpha — a pullback tag, not a confirmed breakdown.
• ONDS: regime downgraded downtrend → collapse; RSI 51.2 → 43.6; trailing year still +38.6% with positive alpha.
• UMAC: RSI 54.7 → 47.8, continuing to cool after its prior giveback; still +135.79% over the trailing year.
• MSI: RSI 66.1 → 67.5, still the highest in the book; trailing year barely positive at +3.38% with a negative alpha1y.
• AXON: RSI 58.3 → 52.6; still negative on the trailing year (-23.17%) but 18.6% above its 200-day.
• PL: RSI 41.7 → 32.1, one of the sharper drops in the book; thesis remains rated broken.
• ITA: regime held uptrend despite RSI falling further to 37.4 (was 40.4) — the tag hasn't caught down to the cooling yet.
• TDY: regime downgraded uptrend → pullback; RSI 39.3 → 36.2.

Regime labels describe chart structure, not a buy/sell call, and this cycle is a clear case for running the trailing-year check on every fresh collapse tag rather than treating the pocket's size alone as the signal. AVAV, KTOS, and RCAT all have genuine longer-horizon backing for their new collapse tags — negative trailing year, negative alpha, well below the 200-day. ESLT and ONDS do not: both remain solidly positive over 12 months with positive alpha, which argues their fresh tags describe a sharp pullback rather than a broken trend. MSI's disconnect between a strong week and a flat-to-negative annual alpha is worth remembering before chasing its RSI lead, and AXON's mirror-image pattern — negative annual return but genuine recent recovery — cuts the other way. DRSHF and PL remain the two names in this book with no counter-argument in any direction.

Tier A — RSI 50+, confirmed structure (3): MSI (negative alpha1y despite the RSI lead), EOPSF, AXON (negative 1-year, positive recovery signs).

Tier B — Mid-book, RSI 45-50 (6): DPRO, RTX, UMAC, LMT, AVEX, NOC.

Tier C — Cooling, RSI 40-45 (5): ONDS (fresh collapse, still positive alpha), RCAT (fresh collapse, negative alpha), KTOS (fresh collapse, negative alpha), AMPX, AVAV (fresh collapse, negative alpha).

Tier D — Weakest, RSI <40 (8): DRSHF, ITA, DFEN, TDY, KRKNF, LASR (thesis intact), PL (thesis broken), ESLT (fresh collapse, still positive alpha).

• Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns/1-year, SMA200): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-08-28 close — drone-defense.