Reason: GOOGL's thin cushion above its 200-day flagged last cycle has thinned further to just +0.7% (was +3.6%), even as 1-year change and alpha stay strongly positive though compressing (+45.7%/+27.05%, down from +63.76%/+43.89%) - the level to watch is $335.94. MSFT's squeeze read from last cycle has now fully resolved: RSI cooled from a near-overbought 73.1 to 59.4, the 30D bounce collapsed from +31.49% to +2.51%, and 1-year change flipped back negative at -1.63% (was +0.76%) with alpha still deeply negative at -20.28. NVDA's regime was upgraded from basing to uptrend, 1-year alpha turning solidly positive at +15.54 (was a flat +1.04). AAPL cooled modestly but remains intact.

Tape Read

$GOOGL: price $338.46, RSI 44.8, golden-cross, trend weak-down, regime pullback, thesis intact, 1D -1.17%, 7D -2.32% (down from +0.46%), 30D -6.61% (down from +2.93%), -17.17% off its 52-week high (worse than -15.18%) — 0.7% above its 200-day average (vs 200-day, thinned further from +3.6%), 1-year change +45.7% (down sharply from +63.76%) and 1-year alpha +27.05 (down from +43.89): still a deep pullback in a genuinely positive trend, but the cushion flagged as thin last cycle has thinned further, with $335.94 (its 200-day) now the level to watch. $MSFT is this cycle's resolved trap case: price $499.7, RSI 59.4 (cooled sharply from a near-overbought 73.1), death-crossed, trend strong-up, regime uptrend, thesis intact, 1D -2.04%, 7D -2.72%, 30D +2.51% (collapsed from +31.49%), 15.9% above its 200-day (down from +19.1%) — 1-year change has flipped back to -1.63% (was +0.76%) and 1-year alpha remains deeply negative at -20.28 (roughly unchanged from -19.11), -9.76% off its high (worse than -7.26%): the squeeze flagged last cycle has fully unwound. $NVDA: price $230.36, RSI 60.4, golden-cross, trend strong-up, regime uptrend (upgraded from basing), thesis intact, 1D +0.84%, -2.61% off its high, 1-year change +34.2% (up from +20.91%), vs 200-day +17.1% (up from +11.1%), 1-year alpha +15.54 (up from a flat +1.04): now confirmed leadership, not just market-matching. $AAPL: price $319.97, RSI 53.9, golden-cross, trend strong-up, regime uptrend, thesis intact, 1D -2.51%, 7D +0.11% (down from +3.3%), 30D +2.88% (up from -5.47%), -7.14% off its high, 1-year change +33.44% (down slightly from +37.47%), 1-year alpha +14.79 (down slightly from +17.6) — modestly cooled but remains intact. Today's declines across GOOGL/MSFT/AAPL/NVDA's smaller gain sit inside the day's broader rates-driven pressure on long-duration names (per the day's cohort read); no single-name news receipt was pulled for these moves this cycle. Source: full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-04 close — mag7.

• $GOOGL — PROMOTE (watch the level): 1-year change +45.7%, 1-year alpha +27.05 — still the group's long-horizon-confirmed leader, but its cushion above the 200-day has thinned to just +0.7%; watch $335.94.
• $MSFT — PASS (resolved): RSI cooled from 73.1 to 59.4, 30D bounce collapsed to +2.51%, 1-year change flipped back to -1.63%, alpha still -20.28 — last cycle's squeeze call has fully played out.
• $NVDA — PROMOTE-adjacent WATCH: regime upgraded to uptrend, 1-year alpha turned solidly positive at +15.54 (was flat).
• $AAPL — WATCH: thesis intact, 1-year change +33.44%, 1-year alpha +14.79 — modestly cooled, still a clean second.

Lead pick: $GOOGL remains the group's long-horizon-confirmed leader, but the thin cushion above its 200-day flagged last cycle has thinned further still — $335.94 is now the level to watch. $MSFT is this cycle's resolved case: the near-overbought RSI and outsized 30-day bounce from last cycle have both fully faded, and 1-year change has flipped back negative, confirming it as a squeeze rather than leadership.

Sources

• Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns/1-year change/1-year alpha): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-04 close — mag7.