Why now: campaign-01: capital deployment window 2026-09-08

What was noticed?

CPU and substrate constraints remain a working hypothesis; allocation, pricing and utilization must establish which layer captures the economics.

Why might it matter?

The campaign verdict is INTACT, provisional. The unresolved branch cannot be promoted from a price move or a historical model alone.

What evidence is real, and what is still only a pointer?

Receipt selector: C:cpu-shortage-supply-chain in the campaign thesis review and its accompanying receipts.

Still required: Merchant CPU allocation/pricing and ABF/OSAT utilization after captive substitution and capacity additions.

Which existing research does it update or duplicate?

The registered cpu-shortage-supply-chain perspective. This question tracks the unresolved branch of the campaign review, not a duplicate completed finding.

What should be written if the evidence clears?

A sourced perspective update adjudicating this exact test: AMD/Intel allocation or pricing evidence with documented ABF/OSAT utilization and persistent constraints.

Reviewed September 6 using September 4 settled prices. September 7 is the U.S. Labor Day holiday; the decision window is September 8.