Why now: campaign-01: capital deployment window 2026-09-08

What was noticed?

The shipping advisory keeps the disruption scenario relevant, but the Qatar supply premise and helium transmission remain unverified.

Why might it matter?

The campaign verdict is INTACT, conditional. The unresolved branch cannot be promoted from a price move or a historical model alone.

What evidence is real, and what is still only a pointer?

Receipt selector: marad-2026-004 in the campaign thesis review and its accompanying receipts.

Still required: Current official outage/restart evidence and transmission into helium allocation, pricing or fabrication.

Which existing research does it update or duplicate?

The registered gulf-infrastructure-strike perspective. This question tracks the unresolved branch of the campaign review, not a duplicate completed finding.

What should be written if the evidence clears?

A sourced perspective update adjudicating this exact test: QatarEnergy or official outage evidence followed by actual helium allocation, pricing or fabrication effects.

Reviewed September 6 using September 4 settled prices. September 7 is the U.S. Labor Day holiday; the decision window is September 8.