Why now: campaign-01: capital deployment window 2026-09-08

What was noticed?

Producer pricing, shipments and customer agreements sustain the memory thesis; inventory, capacity additions and order durability remain the decisive falsifiers.

Why might it matter?

The campaign verdict is INTACT. The unresolved branch cannot be promoted from a price move or a historical model alone.

What evidence is real, and what is still only a pointer?

Receipt selector: SKH-Q2-2026 in the campaign thesis review and its accompanying receipts.

Still required: Verify capacity acceleration, negative pricing, inventory build and major HBM order reductions separately.

Which existing research does it update or duplicate?

The registered memory-supercycle perspective. This question tracks the unresolved branch of the campaign review, not a duplicate completed finding.

What should be written if the evidence clears?

A sourced perspective update adjudicating this exact test: Primary retained; review inventory, supply additions and order durability against the registered break test.

Reviewed September 6 using September 4 settled prices. September 7 is the U.S. Labor Day holiday; the decision window is September 8.