Why now: campaign-01: capital deployment window 2026-09-08

What was noticed?

The optical constraint remains a working hypothesis, but current supplier allocation and margin evidence is required before promotion.

Why might it matter?

The campaign verdict is INTACT, provisional. The unresolved branch cannot be promoted from a price move or a historical model alone.

What evidence is real, and what is still only a pointer?

Receipt selector: U:LITE in the campaign thesis review and its accompanying receipts.

Still required: COHR/LITE allocation, lead times, capacity and margins; verify CIEN/CRDO developments separately.

Which existing research does it update or duplicate?

The registered optical-supercycle perspective. This question tracks the unresolved branch of the campaign review, not a duplicate completed finding.

What should be written if the evidence clears?

A sourced perspective update adjudicating this exact test: COHR/LITE allocation, capacity and margin evidence demonstrates conversion into supplier economics.

Reviewed September 6 using September 4 settled prices. September 7 is the U.S. Labor Day holiday; the decision window is September 8.