Natera Breaks to a Record at RSI 80 While Its Chairman Sells $51 Million

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Article published Sep 23, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.

NTRA Price Structure

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Verdict: doing well, and extended. Natera is in a multi-year uptrend, up 126% in a year and 753% over three, and it broke above its September 10 high on September 22. Revenue grew 37.7% in the June quarter, the fifth straight quarter above 34%. At RSI 80 and 61% above its 200-day average, though, a new buyer here is chasing. The entry is the flag: a pullback that holds the $343–$360 breakout area. Anyone already long has a hold, not a sell. Medium conviction.

Quick Snapshot (as of 2026-09-23)

Question Answer
The call 🟡 Don't chase the record; buy the flag. Entry $343–$360 · stop $320 · first target $420 · medium conviction.
What it is A cell-free-DNA diagnostics lab. Signatera (a personalized blood test that detects leftover cancer after surgery), Panorama (prenatal screening), Horizon (carrier screening) and Prospera (transplant rejection). It runs its own CLIA labs in Austin, San Carlos and Boulder.
Why now The Q2 print on August 6 beat on EPS and moved the stock 17.3% from the close before to the first close after. On September 23 Zacks reported Japan's regulator had approved Signatera as a companion diagnostic in bladder cancer. On September 22 the stock closed above the $343.20 high set by September 10.
Proof Q2 2026 GAAP revenue $752.8 million, up 37.7% YoY and 8.1% QoQ. Operating margin improved to -10.1% from -20.2% a year earlier. Trailing four-quarter operating cash flow was $228 million.
Objection The stock trades at about 21x trailing revenue and is still GAAP-unprofitable. Four insiders sold about $60.9 million between September 1 and September 15, $51.2 million of it by Executive Chairman Matthew Rabinowitz. Nobody bought.
Stock setup RSI 80, 61% above the 200-day average, 1% below the 52-week high, on 1.23x average volume. Parabolic tier of the Momentum Board.

Action Matrix (as of 2026-09-23)

Signal If Then
🟢 Buy A pullback of 2–5 weeks on volume below average holds $343–$360 (the September 10 high of $343.20 up to the 10-day average near $358), with RSI cooling to 50–60 Start a trend-hold position.
🟡 Wait It keeps running without a pullback, or pulls back on heavy volume Wait. Heavy-volume selling is distribution, not a flag.
🔴 Out A close below $320 (below the breakout and the early-September range where insiders sold at $321–$328) The breakout failed; stand aside until a new base forms.
🟠 Target $420 (the height of the run from the 30-day low of $316.00 to the $394.86 high, added to the $343 breakout) First target; trail rather than sell the whole position.
🔴 Thesis breaks The Q3 report (scheduled November 5) shows revenue growth below 30%, a cut to the $2.85–$2.91 billion 2026 guide, or loss of Medicare coverage for Signatera The growth premium has no support.

The Story Right Now (as of 2026-09-23)

Natera is doing well: its long uptrend is intact, revenue growth has held above 34% for five quarters, and the stock broke to a record on September 22. It is also more extended than it was at the June 29 dive.

Data as of 2026-09-23 close: NTRA $390.79, RSI 79.6, +13.9% vs SMA20, +25.6% vs SMA50, +60.9% vs SMA200, 7D +13.16%, 30D +19.25%, 3M +50.32%, 1Y +126.11%, 1Y alpha vs SPY +110.34 points, -1.03% from the 52-week high, relative volume 1.23x.

The long trend is not in question. The stock is up 126% on the year, 110 points ahead of the S&P 500, and trades above all three moving averages with a golden cross in place. The desk's thesis-state label is "intact but priced": the business case holds and the price already reflects much of it. The question is entry, not direction.

What drove the run. The step up started with the August 6 second-quarter report. Revenue grew 37.7% to $752.8 million, GAAP EPS of -$0.47 beat the -$0.53 consensus, and the stock rose 17.3% across the print. Summaries of the release and the call say management raised 2026 revenue guidance to $2.85–$2.91 billion and credited Signatera adoption. The September leg has one dated event on file. Zacks reported on September 23 that Japan's PMDA approved Signatera as a companion diagnostic for muscle-invasive bladder cancer, based on the IMvigor011 Phase III trial. That is Natera's second PMDA authorization in three months, with a Japan launch planned for the first half of 2027. Zacks says the stock rose 5.5% on the news but does not give the date. The Momentum Board recorded closes of $369.39 on September 18 and $390.90 on September 22. For the other September sessions the cause is unknown. The news pull on September 23 returned quote pages for that window, the stock-events record holds only the August and November earnings dates, and no other company news was captured. Genomics as a group was also moving: tonight's Momentum Board lists Moderna, 10x Genomics, Twist Bioscience, CareDx and Illumina among its parabolic names.

Insiders sold into the run, and nobody bought. Seven Form 4s were filed between August 28 and September 18:

  • Executive Chairman Matthew Rabinowitz sold 152,000 shares for about $51.2 million on September 11 and 14.
  • Clinical Diagnostics President Solomon Moshkevich sold about $5.9 million on September 1, then filed a small gift on September 16.
  • Director Jonathan Sheena sold about $3.2 million on September 15.
  • CEO Steven Chapman sold about $0.5 million on September 1.
  • Chief Business Officer John Fesko reported an award and a sale dated August 6, filed August 28.

Average sale prices rose from about $321 to $351 across the filings, so the sellers followed the stock up rather than getting ahead of a drop. The captured filings do not say whether the sales ran under 10b5-1 plans. A July 17–29 cluster of eight insiders selling about $5.3 million came before this one.

Peer context, not a cause. On September 23 an FDA advisory panel questioned the effectiveness of GRAIL's multi-cancer early-detection test. Natera's early-detection program, focused on colorectal cancer, is still in development according to its 10-K. Its revenue comes from post-diagnosis monitoring, prenatal and transplant testing, which that panel did not address. NTRA closed flat on the day.

Chase or hold. For a trend-hold style that enters on bottom → pop → flag → breakout, the breakout already happened on September 22. Buying at RSI 80, 61% above the 200-day, is the pattern the desk's graded calls flag as its worst: entries on strength with distant stops. The flag should look like 2–5 weeks of sideways or drifting price on shrinking volume, RSI back to 50–60, and closes holding above $343. The 20-day average, now $343.13, is rising toward that level. The next entry is a close above the flag's high on above-average volume. A deeper pullback that loses $343 but holds the 50-day (about $311) leaves the long trend intact and resets the setup. For anyone already holding, nothing in the tape says sell: the trend is strong-up, and trend-hold exits key off a trend break, not a high RSI.

The call: 🟡 wait for the flag. Buy $343–$360 with a stop at $320, first target $420, medium conviction. The weakest link is price, not the business: the stock trades at about 21x trailing revenue. Supply is the second worry. The founder and executive chairman sold $51.2 million of stock in two sessions, and one holder's 13F portfolio has NTRA as its largest position. What would change the view: a volume-confirmed flag breakout (upgrade to buy on the breakout), a close below $320 (out), or a Q3 revenue print below 30% growth on November 5 (thesis breaks).

Extended analysis