Article published Sep 28, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.
CRM Price Structure
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$CRM is pulling back inside a long uptrend: down 11.2% since August 28, though still up 43.9% since June 29 and 13.0% above its 200-day average. At the 2026-09-28 settled close, CRM $227.27 was -7.9% versus its 20-day average and -11.2% over 30 days. The newest verified quarter ends 2026-07-31 (filed 2026-08-27); revenue was $11.35B. Against 2025-07-31 revenue of $10.24B, that is +10.8% year over year. GAAP operating income was flat at $2.331B against $2.332B a year earlier, so the earnings jump came below the operating line; revenue growth is about 11%. The application layer is still fighting the "AI eats software" discount. The standing call is 🟡 Buy the flag if it holds. Entry $220–$232 · stop $205 · first target $259 · medium conviction.
Quick Snapshot (as of 2026-09-28)
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| The call | 🟡 Buy the flag if it holds. Entry $220–$232 · stop $205 · first target $259 · medium conviction. |
| What it is | The largest customer-relationship-management software company: sales, service, marketing, data and the Agentforce AI-agent products, sold as subscriptions. |
| Why now | Prior case (2026-09-23): The fiscal second quarter (ended July 31) beat heavily and the stock re-rated from its June low. |
| Proof | Latest verified period ended 2026-07-31, filed 2026-08-27: revenue $11.35B. Prior case: The 10-Q filed August 27: revenue $11.345B against $10.236B a year earlier, GAAP net income $3.526B against $1.887B, GAAP diluted EPS $4.29 against $1.96. |
| Objection | GAAP operating income was flat at $2.331B against $2.332B a year earlier, so the earnings jump came below the operating line; revenue growth is about 11%. The application layer is still fighting the "AI eats software" discount. |
| Stock setup | The shorter trend has repaired, but the trailing year still trails; -7.9% versus the 20-day, +13.0% versus the 200-day, RSI 45.3. |
Action Matrix (reviewed 2026-09-28; levels are standing conditions)
| Signal | If | Then |
|---|---|---|
| 🟢 Buy | The pullback holds $220–$232 and turns back up | Entry; a flag after the August pop. |
| 🟡 Wait | Price stays between $232 and the 20-day (about $247) | No edge in the middle of the pullback. |
| 🔴 Out | After an entry, a close below $205, near the 200-day and the volume-weighted average from the low | The re-rating failed. |
| 🟠 Target | $259, the September 4 close near the high | First target; a new high above it would confirm the flag. |
| 🔴 Thesis breaks | The December print shows revenue growth slipping below 10% or agent products failing to lift bookings | The recovery was multiple repair, not growth. |
The Story Right Now (as of 2026-09-28)
$CRM is pulling back inside a long uptrend: down 11.2% since August 28, though still up 43.9% since June 29 and 13.0% above its 200-day average.
Data as of 2026-09-28 close: CRM $227.27, RSI 45.3, strong-up, -7.9% vs SMA20, +13.0% vs SMA200, 7D -3.9%, 30D -11.2%, 1Y -7.3%, -15.6% from the 52-week high.
Condition check. The $227.27 close sits inside the prior $220–$232 flag zone. The matrix requires the flag to hold; one close in the zone alone does not establish that condition.
Business and mechanism. The largest customer-relationship-management software company: sales, service, marketing, data and the Agentforce AI-agent products, sold as subscriptions.
Prior case (2026-09-23). The fiscal second quarter (ended July 31) beat heavily and the stock re-rated from its June low.
Prior proof (2026-09-23). The 10-Q filed August 27: revenue $11.345B against $10.236B a year earlier, GAAP net income $3.526B against $1.887B, GAAP diluted EPS $4.29 against $1.96.
The countercase. GAAP operating income was flat at $2.331B against $2.332B a year earlier, so the earnings jump came below the operating line; revenue growth is about 11%. The application layer is still fighting the "AI eats software" discount.
Newest statement check. The newest verified quarter ends 2026-07-31 (filed 2026-08-27); revenue was $11.35B. Against 2025-07-31 revenue of $10.24B, that is +10.8% year over year.
News and attention check. The news search for the latest move failed; the last completed search was on 2026-09-08. No company event for CRM was recorded between September 24 and 28.
The call: 🟡 Buy the flag if it holds. Entry $220–$232 · stop $205 · first target $259 · medium conviction.
Extended analysis
Price Data (live)
Live values from the desk's settled-close summaries. They update with each close; the dated sections above keep the numbers of their own date.
| Metric | CRM |
|---|---|
| As of (close) | 2026-10-16 |
| Price ($) | 240.7 |
| RSI (14) | 55.8 |
| vs SMA20 (%) | 3.2 |
| vs SMA50 (%) | 4.6 |
| vs SMA200 (%) | 20.9 |
| SMA20 ($) | 233.23 |
| SMA50 ($) | 230.12 |
| SMA200 ($) | 199.05 |
| 1D (%) | -2.45 |
| 7D (%) | 5.05 |
| 30D (%) | -3.93 |
| 3M (%) | 40.95 |
| 1Y (%) | -2.15 |
| 2Y (%) | -17.25 |
| 1Y vs S&P 500 (pts) | -17.69 |
| From 52-week high (%) | -10.56 |
The Oversold-vs-Broken Tension (2026-06-22 rotation refresh)
This is the operative question for CRM this week. The rotation de-rated the application/SaaS layer as the source of funds for a move into silicon, equipment, and power. CRM was a lead casualty: -8.17% on the week into an RSI 30.5 print.
The oversold read (buyable dislocation):
- RSI 30.5 is at the oversold threshold; CRM bottomed and bounced from RSI 27.3 in April 2026 ($164.53). Sub-35 has historically marked the panic zone for this name.
- -14.5% below SMA20 is a stretched deviation that tends to mean-revert at least toward the 20-day.
- The Discord "Dumb Money" value crowd is beginning to frame SaaS-de-rate-as-value (INTU/FVRR style); CRM is the mega-cap version of that trade. A profitable, cash-generative, dividend-paying name 46% off its high screens "cheap" to that cohort.
- summary thesis flag = "intact" — no fundamental break flagged by the engine.
The broken read (durable application-layer de-rating):
- The trend is strong-down with a confirmed death cross (SMA20 < SMA50 < SMA200) and regime "collapse." Oversold in a collapse regime is not the same setup as oversold in an uptrend pullback — it can stay oversold and keep grinding (the SNOW/MDB pattern).
- This is a lower low below the June 16 reading; the April bounce off RSI 27 has now been fully erased and exceeded to the downside.
- The de-rate is thematic, not idiosyncratic: the market is questioning whether the application layer captures AI's economics or merely pays the silicon/power layer for it. That is a multiple story, and multiple stories don't bottom on a single RSI tick.
What resolves it: A higher low that holds above ~$150 plus an RSI turn back through ~40 would argue dislocation. Continued lower-lows with RSI pinned in the 25-35 band — especially if it breaks the April $164.53/current $151 shelf decisively — argues the de-rating is structural. Do not call the bottom on the RSI 30 print alone. Watch for basing behavior first.
2026-07-11 tape update: Both conditions above have now printed — price held above $150 and made a higher low at $151.78, then RSI turned back through 40 (now 47.5) with price back above SMA20 ($163.32 vs $160.09). This satisfies the "dislocation" resolution as stated, though the death cross and strong-down trend are still intact (SMA50/SMA200 not yet reclaimed), so treat it as the acute panic phase ending rather than the application-layer de-rating question being settled.
2026-07-17 tape update: The stabilization has firmed further — RSI 53.9 (up from 47.5), price now +5.5% above SMA20 and nearly at SMA50 (-0.3%). Still -17.7% below SMA200 with a death cross intact, so this remains a within-downtrend recovery rather than a resolved reversal. No new fundamentals re-researched.
2026-07-25 tape update (Friday July 24 close): The stabilization has partly given way — RSI 47.5 (down from 53.9), price back below SMA20 (-1.0%) and further below SMA50/SMA200. -42.73% from 52wk high is a new deeper drawdown than the prior lows in this file. Death cross and strong-down trend still intact. No new fundamentals re-researched.
2026-07-28 tape update: The giveback reversed sharply — RSI 60.8 (up from 47.5), price has reclaimed both SMA20 (+8.5%) and SMA50 (+6.5%) for the first time since 07/17, though still -11.5% below SMA200. -33.76% from 52wk high, narrowed sharply from -42.73%. Death cross still flagged structurally. This is the strongest single-cycle move in the file's history but does not by itself resolve the oversold-vs-broken tension named above — the application-layer de-rate question stays open pending fundamentals. No new fundamentals re-researched.
Financial Proof
Filed-period check (as of 2026-09-28): The newest verified quarter ended 2026-07-31 and was filed 2026-08-27. Revenue was $11.35B. Source: SEC key financials and the filing. Dated historical tables below retain their own period basis.
The recent filed revenue series shows the direction of the business; missing cells are left unavailable.
| Period end | Revenue | YoY | Operating income | GAAP net income | Filing date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-31 | $9.32B | — | $1.78B | $1.43B | 2024-08-29 |
| 2024-10-31 | $9.44B | — | $1.89B | $1.53B | 2024-12-04 |
| 2025-04-30 | $9.83B | — | $1.94B | $1.54B | 2025-05-29 |
| 2025-07-31 | $10.24B | +9.8% | $2.33B | $1.89B | 2025-09-04 |
| 2026-04-30 | $11.13B | +13.3% | $2.35B | $2.11B | 2026-05-28 |
Research Log
| Date | Update |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | Created deep dive — $164.53, RSI 27.3, strong-down death cross, SaaS capitulation |
| 2026-05-29 | CRM $191.10, RSI 60.7, weak-up; +8.47% 1D earnings/guidance catalyst. Structural recovery underway, not complete. |
| 2026-06-16 | CRM $161.71, RSI 36.1, weak-down; the May earnings bounce fully reversed. Approaching April lows. |
| 2026-06-22 | Data as of 06-18 EOW: CRM $151.78, RSI 30.5, strong-down, regime "collapse"; -8.17% 7D, -15.24% 30D, -22.24% 3M, -45.77% from 52wkHi, -14.5% vs SMA20 ($177.50), death cross intact. CRM a lead funding source for the down-stack rotation (SaaS sold to buy silicon/equipment/power). Now a lower low below the June 16 reading — April's RSI-27 bounce shelf ($164.53) has been broken to the downside. RSI 30.5 at the oversold line: framed as the oversold-dislocation-vs-broken-application-layer tension. Resolution = higher-low + RSI turn through 40 (buyable) vs continued lower-lows with RSI pinned 25-35 (durable de-rate). No bottom called. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-11 | CRM $163.32, RSI 47.5, strong-down (death cross intact) but regime downgraded to "downtrend" from "collapse"; +7.6% since June 22 ($151.78), -0.32% 7D, -1.88% 30D, -5.26% 3M, -40.39% from 52wkHi. The higher-low + RSI-through-40 condition set on June 22 has now printed — reads as the oversold dislocation resolving, not confirmation the application-layer de-rate thesis is over. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-17 | CRM $170.77, RSI 53.9, strong-down (death cross intact), regime "downtrend"; +4.6% since 07/11, +4.56% 7D, +12.51% 30D, -37.68% from 52wkHi. Stabilization has firmed further; still below SMA50/SMA200. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-25 | CRM $163.66, RSI 47.5, strong-down (death cross intact), regime "downtrend"; -4.2% since 07/17, -4.16% 7D, +7.14% 30D, -42.73% from 52wkHi (new deeper low). Gave back part of the bounce; still below SMA20/SMA50/SMA200. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-28 | CRM $181.50, RSI 60.8, weak-up (death cross flagged), regime "downtrend"; +10.9% since 07/25, +6.73% 7D, +14.92% 30D, -33.76% from 52wkHi (narrowed sharply). Reclaimed both SMA20 (+8.5%) and SMA50 (+6.5%) — strongest single-cycle move in this file's history. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-31 | CRM $184.02, RSI 59.7, weak-up; 7D +12.44%; 30D +12.74%; 3M +0.37%; -31.62% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-08 | CRM $192.74, RSI 62.5, weak-up; 7D +4.74%; 30D +15.70%; 3M +6.28%; -28.29% from 52wk high. Now +12.0% above SMA50 and only -5.0% below SMA200 — closest full-stack reclaim yet. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-14 | CRM $196.21, RSI 60.7, weak-up; 7D +1.80%; 30D +17.49%; 3M +13.38%; -25.17% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-22 | CRM $209.17, RSI 66.1, up; 7D +6.61%; 30D +28.33%; 3M +16.16%; -22.27% from 52wk high. 1Y -14.91%, vs SMA200 +4.20%. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-28 | CRM $256.00, RSI 80.8, up; 7D +22.51%; 30D +35.90%; 3M +33.96%; -4.87% from 52wk high. 1Y +0.58%, vs SMA200 +27.8%. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-09-04 | CRM $259.23, RSI 76.6, up; 7D +1.19%; 30D +34.33%; 3M +39.63%; -3.67% from 52wk high. 1Y +6.24%, vs SMA200 +29.10%. The 80%-EPS-beat fiscal Q2 print (reported 2026-08-26, EPS $5.90 vs $3.27 consensus per the captured record) already drove the rally through the 08-28 checkpoint (RSI 80.8, parabolic); no new print or item found this week. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-09-11 | CRM $247.72, RSI 64.9, up; 7D -4.44%; 30D +28.14%; 3M +49.33%; -7.95% from 52wk high. 1Y +0.58%, vs SMA200 +23.20%. Regime cooled from "parabolic" to "uptrend." News pulled 2026-09-08 was positive (reiterated Buy, $400 PT) with no cause on record for the pullback. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-09-18 | CRM $237.92, RSI 53.2, strong-up; 7D -3.96%; 30D +15.44%; 3M +56.75%; -11.59% from 52wk high. 1Y -2.60% with alpha1y -17.62, but price +18.0% above the 200-day — a recovered quarter inside a flat year. Golden cross now confirmed (was absent last cycle). News not pulled for this move (last fetched 2026-09-08). Stock-events checked: the 2026-09-02 print is the newest on file, nothing in this window. No newly filed period on disk this cycle; the newest quarter in the caches remains fiscal 2027 Q1. |
| 2026-09-23 | CRM $237.58, RSI 52.9, -4.0% vs SMA20, 30D +13.64%. Pulling back under the 20-day after the August pop; 1Y -2.85% with 1Y vs S&P 500 -18.63 pts but +17.9% above the 200-day. Filed-period fold: the fiscal Q2 FY2027 10-Q (period ended 2026-07-31, filed 2026-08-27) is now on disk and newer than the fiscal Q1 cited last cycle — revenue $11.345B (vs $10.236B), GAAP net income $3.526B, GAAP EPS $4.29, operating income flat YoY; folded into the top. News not pulled for this move (last fetched 2026-09-08). Form 4 filed 2026-09-21 per the desk brief. Stock-events checked: none in the window. |
| 2026-09-28 | CRM $227.27, RSI 45.3, -7.9% vs SMA20, 30D -11.2%. The shorter trend has repaired, but the trailing year still trails; The newest verified quarter ends 2026-07-31 (filed 2026-08-27); revenue was $11.35B. Against 2025-07-31 revenue of $10.24B, that is +10.8% year over year. The news search for the latest move failed; the last completed search was on 2026-09-08. No company event for CRM was recorded between September 24 and 28. |
Sources
- Filed fundamentals: key-financials — fiscal Q2 FY2027 10-Q, period ended 2026-07-31, filed 2026-08-27.
- News receipt: latest (fetched 2026-09-08) — Salesforce quarterly results.
- Filings list: 2026-09-21-market-brief — CRM Form 4 filed 2026-09-21.
- Scheduled-event check: 2026-09-02-crm-earnings — the most recent event on file; no CRM row dated 2026-09-19 to 2026-09-23.
- Macro: CNBC, Fed delivers its first hike in three years (2026-09-16); Bloomberg, US bond-market slide deepens (2026-09-23); Bloomberg, biggest long-bond ETF hits record low (2026-09-23); CNBC, market sees next Fed hike in October (2026-09-23).
- market-pulse — sector-fund and S&P 500 30-day returns, September 23, 2026.
2026-09-28 refresh receipts
2026-09-28 settled-close receipt: *, CRM row dated 2026-09-28; tape values above are bound to the current summary fields.
2026-09-28 financial-period check: income-statements and key-financials; newest verified 2026-07-31 period, filed 2026-08-27 (SEC XBRL direct quarter).
2026-09-28 news receipt check: latest, fetched 2026-09-08; receipt is not current; latest-session cause remains unassigned.
2026-09-28 stock-event scan:
research/stock-events/, no CRM row dated 2026-09-24 through 2026-09-28.2026-09-28 captured-follows scan: tweets has 0 September 24–28 document(s) tagging CRM.
Retrospective social-search receipt (captured 2026-09-29): 2026-09-29-social-search-crm; quality/attention check only, not a September 28 event or price source.
2026-09-29 browser discovery check for CRM: news-discovery-google-sep29 (key
CRM); search links only, not evidence of an event or of absence of news.