Article published Sep 28, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.
FCX Price Structure
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Freeport-McMoRan Inc. is pulling back inside a long uptrend: down 5.9% since August 28, though still up 16.8% since June 29 and 14.0% above its 200-day average. At the 2026-09-28 settled close, FCX $71.96 was -0.6% versus its 20-day average and -5.9% over 30 days. The newest verified quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-08-06); revenue was $7.03B. Against 2025-06-30 revenue of $7.58B, that is -7.3% year over year. Copper prices include tariff and inventory distortions, higher U.S. rates weigh on metals, and Indonesia's post-2041 operating rights are unresolved. The standing call is 🟡 Buy the base floor or the breakout. Entry $67–$71 · stop $62.30 · first target $80 · medium conviction.
Quick Snapshot (as of 2026-09-28)
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| The call | 🟡 Buy the base floor or the breakout. Entry $67–$71 · stop $62.30 · first target $80 · medium conviction. |
| What it is | One of the largest public copper producers, with Grasberg in Indonesia, Cerro Verde in Peru and Morenci and other U.S. mines; gold and molybdenum credits cut its net copper cost. |
| Why now | Prior case (2026-09-23): Physical copper has been tight — Bloomberg on September 23 described the metal retreating from close to a record — and Q2 showed the Grasberg ramp ahead of plan. |
| Proof | Latest verified period ended 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-06: revenue $7.03B. Prior case: Q2 2026: attributable net income $984M, operating cash flow $2.0B, realized copper $6.17/lb against a $1.97/lb unit net cash cost. |
| Objection | Copper prices include tariff and inventory distortions, higher U.S. rates weigh on metals, and Indonesia's post-2041 operating rights are unresolved. |
| Stock setup | The long trend remains intact; -0.6% versus the 20-day, +14.0% versus the 200-day, RSI 50.5. |
Action Matrix (reviewed 2026-09-28; levels are standing conditions)
| Signal | If | Then |
|---|---|---|
| 🟢 Buy | Price pulls into $67–$71, the base floor near the 50-day, and holds | Entry at the bottom of the base. |
| 🟢 Buy | A close above $80.24, the base pivot | Breakout entry; smaller size given the distance to the stop. |
| 🟡 Wait | Price stays in the middle of the base, $71–$80 | No edge. |
| 🔴 Out | After an entry, a close below $62.30, under the $62.39 support shelf and near the 200-day | The base failed; the long trend is under test. |
| 🟠 Target | $80, the base pivot | First target for a floor entry; trail above it. |
| 🔴 Thesis breaks | The October 22 print shows another Grasberg disruption or unit costs jumping | The operating recovery was temporary. |
The Story Right Now (as of 2026-09-28)
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. is pulling back inside a long uptrend: down 5.9% since August 28, though still up 16.8% since June 29 and 14.0% above its 200-day average.
Data as of 2026-09-28 close: FCX $71.96, RSI 50.5, strong-up, -0.6% vs SMA20, +14.0% vs SMA200, 7D -0.3%, 30D -5.9%, 1Y +93.9%, -10.3% from the 52-week high.
Condition check. The $71.96 close is above the prior $67–$71 base-floor zone and below the separate $80.24 breakout pivot. Neither original entry condition is confirmed by this close.
Business and mechanism. One of the largest public copper producers, with Grasberg in Indonesia, Cerro Verde in Peru and Morenci and other U.S. mines; gold and molybdenum credits cut its net copper cost.
Prior case (2026-09-23). Physical copper has been tight — Bloomberg on September 23 described the metal retreating from close to a record — and Q2 showed the Grasberg ramp ahead of plan.
Prior proof (2026-09-23). Q2 2026: attributable net income $984M, operating cash flow $2.0B, realized copper $6.17/lb against a $1.97/lb unit net cash cost.
The countercase. Copper prices include tariff and inventory distortions, higher U.S. rates weigh on metals, and Indonesia's post-2041 operating rights are unresolved.
Newest statement check. The newest verified quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-08-06); revenue was $7.03B. Against 2025-06-30 revenue of $7.58B, that is -7.3% year over year.
News and attention check. The news search for the latest move failed; the last completed search was on 2026-09-22. No company event for FCX was recorded between September 24 and 28.
The call: 🟡 Buy the base floor or the breakout. Entry $67–$71 · stop $62.30 · first target $80 · medium conviction.
Extended analysis
Price Data (live)
Live values from the desk's settled-close summaries. They update with each close; the dated sections above keep the numbers of their own date.
| Metric | FCX |
|---|---|
| As of (close) | 2026-10-16 |
| Price ($) | 69.54 |
| RSI (14) | 43.5 |
| vs SMA20 (%) | -3 |
| vs SMA50 (%) | -3.5 |
| vs SMA200 (%) | 7.5 |
| SMA20 ($) | 71.72 |
| SMA50 ($) | 72.04 |
| SMA200 ($) | 64.68 |
| 1D (%) | -0.74 |
| 7D (%) | -5.63 |
| 30D (%) | 0.43 |
| 3M (%) | 19.12 |
| 1Y (%) | 66.76 |
| 2Y (%) | 44.97 |
| 1Y vs S&P 500 (pts) | 51.23 |
| From 52-week high (%) | -13.33 |
Prior Research (prepared by 2026-09-23; current call and filed-period check above)
Summary
Freeport converts copper scarcity into cash through a portfolio of large, long-lived mines. Morenci in Arizona, Cerro Verde in Peru and Grasberg in Indonesia anchor the system. Copper supplies the main revenue exposure. Gold from Grasberg and molybdenum from the Americas provide valuable by-product credits that reduce the net cash cost assigned to each pound of copper.
The current copper market is tight enough to reward that structure. The London Metal Exchange's August 21 official cash price was about $14,167 per tonne, roughly $112 above the three-month price. That backwardation is a direct sign that prompt metal commands a premium. Recent market coverage has connected the squeeze to limited physical availability, tariff-driven stockpiling and potential restrictions on concentrate exports from Congo.
Freeport's Q2 results captured the price. It realized $6.17 per pound of copper against a unit net cash cost of $1.97. Attributable net income was $984M, adjusted attributable net income was about $1.1B, operating cash flow was $2.0B and capex was $1.1B.
The company also repaired the most important operating uncertainty. After the September 2025 mud-rush incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine, the market needed evidence that the phased restart would restore saleable production. Q2 copper sales reached 710M pounds and exceeded Freeport's April estimate. Management said the ramp was progressing and kept full-year copper-sales guidance at about 3.1B pounds.
The thesis is now being proven by both commodity price and mine execution. When this was written on August 23 the stock was within 1% of its high; the remaining argument was, and is, about duration and entry.
Why This Moment Matters
In July, FCX fell back into the desk's old $56–$63 research zone with weak momentum and Q2 unresolved. That was a company-versus-cycle question: would Grasberg recover while copper demand held?
The answer improved on both sides:
| July question | Current receipt | What remains |
|---|---|---|
| Can Grasberg ramp after the 2025 incident? | Q2 sales exceeded the April estimate; phased ramp continued. | Sustained underground rates, recoveries and a clean transition through the rest of 2026. |
| Will high copper prices reach the P&L? | $6.17/lb realized copper and $1.97/lb unit net cash cost generated strong cash flow. | Copper must remain tight after tariff stockpiling and warehouse shifts normalize. |
| Can Freeport fund growth and returns? | Q2 operating cash flow exceeded capex by about $0.9B; cash was $4.1B. | Annual capex remains guided to $4.3B and large projects can absorb commodity-cycle cash quickly. |
| Was the zone a durable entry? | Price rallied from the upper-$50s to $76.66. | Current momentum has removed the old entry asymmetry. |
The copper story extends beyond AI. Grid expansion, electrification, renewable generation, vehicles, defense and ordinary construction all consume copper. AI data centers add an unusually power-dense demand leg through generation, transmission, substations and internal electrical systems. AI strengthens an existing physical-demand thesis; it is not the entire copper market.
How the Business Makes Money
| Region / engine | Main assets | Economic role |
|---|---|---|
| Indonesia | Freeport's 49% economic interest in the Grasberg minerals district and associated downstream operations | The portfolio's copper-and-gold engine. High grades and gold credits can produce exceptional margins, with underground complexity and sovereign risk. |
| South America | 55% interest in Cerro Verde in Peru and El Abra in Chile | Large-scale copper production with established infrastructure and expansion optionality. |
| North America | Morenci, Bagdad, Safford/Lone Star and other US operations | Long-lived copper base in a strategically favored jurisdiction, generally with higher unit costs than Grasberg. |
| Molybdenum | Henderson, Climax and by-product output | Diversifies revenue and supplies an important alloying metal. |
The income statement is highly sensitive to three variables: pounds sold, realized prices and unit costs after by-product credits. Gold can make Grasberg's copper appear unusually cheap on a net-cost basis. That is economically real, though it means gold production and price belong in any copper-cost comparison.
Integration also matters. Freeport owns concentrate and participates in downstream processing, which gives it different exposure to treatment and refining charges than a standalone smelter. Tight concentrate markets tend to squeeze smelter fees and preserve more value for mine owners. The desk still lacks a current primary TC/RC series, so this profile does not convert that directional logic into a claimed earnings number.
What the Filing Says the Company Is Becoming
Freeport is pursuing brownfield growth around assets it already understands rather than building an entirely new portfolio. The 2026 filing focuses on Grasberg remediation and ramp-up, mine sequencing, incremental US leach projects and the long-run Indonesian operating framework.
The financial policy tries to balance a base dividend, variable returns and investment while keeping debt manageable through the cycle. At Q2, cash was $4.1B and total debt was $9.4B. Freeport reported net debt of about $2.1B after excluding debt tied to PT Freeport Indonesia's downstream processing facilities.
Indonesia is the strategic hinge. Freeport's current special mining license runs through 2041, and any extension involves government negotiation, ownership, fiscal terms and downstream commitments. Twenty-five years of reserve life can be worth less if the legal right to produce it is uncertain. The current quarter does not resolve that duration risk.
What the Street and Public Conversation Are Saying
Current copper commentary is crowded around scarcity: warehouse stocks, Congo concentrate policy, long project lead times, tariffs and electrification. The physical evidence is stronger than a slogan because the LME cash price sits above the three-month price. The caveat is that tariff-driven US stockpiling can shift metal between warehouses and pull demand forward without changing final consumption.
Fresh social search returned no useful independent FCX or copper analysis. The company filing and official LME curve therefore carry the view. The aggregate insider feed shows net selling and no fresh open-market buy signal; that is secondary beside copper duration, Grasberg and capital allocation.
The Conviction Chain
| Link | Evidence today | What would strengthen it | What breaks it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Copper is physically tight | LME cash copper is above three-month metal near record prices. | Backwardation and premiums persist after tariff deadlines and warehouse relocations pass. | Inventories rebuild and the curve loosens as stockpiled metal returns. |
| Freeport can supply into that market | Q2 Grasberg sales exceeded April estimates; full-year guidance remains about 3.1B lb. | Production, recoveries and sales rise through the next two quarters without another incident. | Underground disruption or delayed remediation cuts high-margin volumes. |
| Price converts into cash | Realized copper of $6.17/lb against $1.97/lb unit net cash cost supported $2.0B Q2 OCF. | Costs remain controlled and by-product credits continue while copper holds. | Energy, labor, treatment or project costs absorb the commodity price. |
| Long-lived assets retain their economics | Major mines have scale, infrastructure and reserve life. | Indonesia secures a credible post-2041 framework and US growth projects meet returns. | Fiscal or ownership terms transfer more value away from shareholders. |
| The stock offers a sensible entry | Strong trend and estimate support are visible. | A pullback holds the prior breakout area and resets RSI. | Chasing a near-high commodity stock into a transient inventory squeeze. |
Conviction is Medium-High on the operating thesis because the first three links now have receipts. The entry and Indonesia duration keep the stock view at Medium.
Financial Proof
| Quarter | Revenue | Operating income | Attributable net income | Diluted EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $7.0B | $2.0B | $663M | $0.46 |
| Q4 2025 | $5.6B | $0.8B | — | — |
| Q1 2026 | $6.2B | $2.1B | $884M | $0.61 |
| Q2 2026 | $6.9B | $2.0B | $984M | $0.68 |
Attributable income is the shareholder measure. Provider data also report consolidated net income including noncontrolling interests; those values should not be substituted for Freeport shareholders' earnings. Q2's adjusted attributable EPS was $0.74 after special items.
As of 2026-09-23 at $72.58 and the latest filed diluted share count of about 1.443B, equity value is about $104.7B. That is roughly 4.0x the last four quarters of revenue — unchanged from September 18; TTM revenue is the same $25.9B and no new quarter has filed. A commodity producer's sales multiple is a weak standalone valuation tool because a small change in copper price can cause a much larger change in earnings and cash flow. Freeport's own 2026 operating-cash-flow sensitivity is the more useful lens.
What to Watch Next
- Grasberg ramp: quarterly production, sales and recovery rates versus the updated plan.
- Copper curve: cash-versus-three-month pricing after tariff and warehouse distortions settle.
- Unit net cash cost: separate operating efficiency from gold and molybdenum credits.
- 2026 cash allocation: $8.3B operating-cash-flow guidance at $6 copper versus $4.3B capex guidance.
- Indonesia after 2041: license, ownership, fiscal and downstream terms.
Financial Proof
Filed-period check (as of 2026-09-28): The newest verified quarter ended 2026-06-30 and was filed 2026-08-06. Revenue was $7.03B; GAAP net income was $1.39B; diluted EPS was 0.68. Source: Massive income statements and the filing. Dated historical tables below retain their own period basis.
The recent filed revenue series shows the direction of the business; missing cells are left unavailable.
| Period end | Revenue | YoY | Operating income | GAAP net income | Filing date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-30 | $6.62B | — | $2.05B | $1.28B | 2024-08-07 |
| 2024-09-30 | $6.79B | — | $1.94B | $1.24B | 2024-11-08 |
| 2025-03-31 | $5.73B | — | $1.30B | $793.0M | 2025-05-08 |
| 2025-06-30 | $7.58B | +14.5% | $2.43B | $1.55B | 2025-08-08 |
| 2025-09-30 | $6.97B | +2.7% | $1.97B | $1.25B | 2025-11-06 |
| 2026-03-31 | $6.23B | +8.8% | $2.14B | $1.39B | 2026-05-08 |
| 2026-06-30 | $7.03B | -7.3% | $2.00B | $1.39B | 2026-08-06 |
Refresh History
| Date | Price | What changed |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | — | Initial research zone set at $56–$63 around the copper-electrification thesis. |
| 2026-06-16 | $70.15 | Strong-up move confirmed the thesis but reduced entry asymmetry. |
| 2026-07-17 | $58.38 | Price re-entered the old zone with weak momentum ahead of Q2. |
| 2026-07-23 | — | Q2 proved strong realized pricing and a better-than-feared Grasberg ramp. |
| 2026-08-23 | $76.66 | Living profile created with copper near record and the stock nearly at its high. |
| 2026-08-28 | $76.45 | Tape update: no new filing this cycle. RSI cooled to 63.2 from near-overbought 69.2, price essentially flat, 1Y +72.3% and 27.2% above the 200-day — deep pullback framing does not apply here, this is digestion inside an intact breakout. Stock-events checked: none new. News cache last fetched 2026-08-27, one session before this close — not fully current for today's move. |
| 2026-09-04 | $72.73 | Tape update: no new filing this cycle (newest cached quarter is still Q2 2026, already the newest cited). RSI cooled further to 53.2, price pulled back to essentially the 20-day (from +7.4% above), -9.4% from high (widened from -4.7%). 1Y moderated to +57.9%, still 19.4% above the 200-day — an intact long trend digesting, not breaking. Multiples restated at the new price (4.1x TTM revenue, down from 4.3x on price alone). Stock-events checked: none new. News not pulled for this move — cache last fetched 2026-08-27, predating this week's pullback. |
| 2026-09-11 | $71.07 | Tape update: no new filing this cycle (newest filed quarter is still Q2 2026, unchanged). RSI cooled further to 48.2, price slipped below the 20-day (from essentially flat), -11.4% from high (widened from -9.4%). 1Y moderated to +54.8%, still 15.4% above the 200-day — an intact long trend continuing to digest, not breaking. Multiples restated at the new price (~4.0x TTM revenue, down from 4.1x on price alone). Stock-events checked: none new. News not pulled for this move — cache last fetched 2026-08-27, now over two weeks stale. |
| 2026-09-18 | $71.54 | Tape update: no new filing this cycle (newest filed quarter is still Q2 2026). RSI warmed to 50.4, all three return windows turned up (+0.7% / +3.6% / +4.2%), -10.8% from high (narrowed from -11.4%). 1Y improved to +59.23%, still 14.8% above the 200-day — intact long trend, the digestion stopped deepening. Multiples restated at the new price (~4.0x TTM revenue, unchanged). Stock-events checked: none in this window. News not pulled for this move — receipt last written 2026-09-11. |
| 2026-09-23 | $72.58 | RSI 52.2, -1.0% vs SMA20, 30D -6.71%. The digestion became a measured base (6.8 weeks, pivot $80.24); 1Y +60.01%, 1Y vs S&P 500 +44.24 pts, +15.7% vs the 200-day — intact trend. -2.38% on 2026-09-23 as Bloomberg reported copper snapping a six-day rally on rate fears. Multiples restated at the new price (~4.0x TTM revenue, unchanged). News pulled 2026-09-22. Stock-events checked: none in the window; Q3 report 10-22. |
| 2026-09-28 | $71.96 | RSI 50.5; -0.6% vs SMA20; 30D -5.9%. The long trend remains intact; The newest verified quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-08-06); revenue was $7.03B. Against 2025-06-30 revenue of $7.58B, that is -7.3% year over year. The news search for the latest move failed; the last completed search was on 2026-09-22. No company event for FCX was recorded between September 24 and 28. |
Sources
- Freeport-McMoRan Q2 2026 SEC earnings exhibit — production, sales, realized price, unit cost, cash flow, capex and guidance.
- Freeport-McMoRan Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and 2025 Form 10-K.
- London Metal Exchange official prices — August 21 cash and three-month copper.
- Bloomberg Law, copper near record on reported Congo concentrate-export restrictions — current market context.
- 2026-07-01-copper-supply-chain-electrification-bottleneck — supply-chain and TC/RC framework.
- 2026-07-18-fcx-deep-dive-refresh-zone-reentry — pre-Q2 thesis state.
- 2026-08-23-social-search-fcx-copper-supply-demand — public-discussion quality check.
- FCX{deep-dive/2026-08-23.json,edgar/key-financials.json,massive/*.json,news/latest.json}` (news fetched 2026-09-22) and copper (September 23, 2026 tape, base pivot, support shelf).
- News receipt items: Freeport stock quote page and Investing.com.
- Bloomberg, copper snaps six-day rally as inflation concerns cool metals (2026-09-23).
- Scheduled-event check: 2026-10-22-fcx-earnings (scheduled); no FCX row dated 2026-09-19 to 2026-09-23.
- Macro: CNBC, Fed delivers its first hike in three years (2026-09-16); Bloomberg, US bond-market slide deepens (2026-09-23); Bloomberg, biggest long-bond ETF hits record low (2026-09-23); CNBC, market sees next Fed hike in October (2026-09-23).
- market-pulse — sector-fund and S&P 500 30-day returns, September 23, 2026.
2026-09-28 refresh receipts
2026-09-28 settled-close receipt: *, FCX row dated 2026-09-28; tape values above are bound to the current summary fields.
2026-09-28 financial-period check: income-statements and key-financials; newest verified 2026-06-30 period, filed 2026-08-06 (Massive statement / SEC period cross-check).
2026-09-28 news receipt check: latest, fetched 2026-09-22; receipt is not current; latest-session cause remains unassigned.
2026-09-28 stock-event scan:
research/stock-events/, no FCX row dated 2026-09-24 through 2026-09-28.2026-09-28 captured-follows scan: tweets has 0 September 24–28 document(s) tagging FCX.
Retrospective social-search receipt (captured 2026-09-29): 2026-09-29-social-search-fcx-freeport-mcmoran-inc; quality/attention check only, not a September 28 event or price source.
2026-09-29 browser discovery check for FCX: news-discovery-google-sep29 (key
FCX); search links only, not evidence of an event or of absence of news.