Article published Sep 28, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.
LOW Price Structure
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$LOW is sliding: down 9.8% since August 28 and down 14.6% since June 29, 19.4% below its 200-day average and 36.0% below its 52-week high. At the 2026-09-28 settled close, LOW $187.66 was -4.3% versus its 20-day average and -9.8% over 30 days. The newest verified quarter ends 2026-07-31 (filed 2026-08-27); revenue was $25.96B. Against 2025-08-01 revenue of $23.96B, that is +8.3% year over year. The Fed raised its target range 25bp to 3.75%–4.00% on 2026-09-16 and markets now price another hike in October; housing-linked spending is the transmission channel working against this name. The standing call is 🔴 Out — no entry while below the 200-day. Entry $234–$240 only after a reclaim of the 200-day · stop $214 · first target $245 · low conviction.
Quick Snapshot (as of 2026-09-28)
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| The call | 🔴 Out — no entry while below the 200-day. Entry $234–$240 only after a reclaim of the 200-day · stop $214 · first target $245 · low conviction |
| What is Lowe's? | The second-largest US home-improvement chain; revenue leans on do-it-yourself customers more than on contractors. |
| Why look now? | Prior case (2026-09-23): The drawdown is the deepest in this file and RSI is near oversold — but the macro premise that underwrote the name (rate cuts reviving housing turnover) has inverted. |
| What is the proof? | Latest verified period ended 2026-07-31, filed 2026-08-27: revenue $25.96B. Prior case: The Q2 report on 2026-08-19 beat on earnings but trimmed 2026 sales guidance to $92B on soft DIY demand, with comparable sales up only 0.2% (company release, per the August news pull). |
| What is the objection? | The Fed raised its target range 25bp to 3.75%–4.00% on 2026-09-16 and markets now price another hike in October; housing-linked spending is the transmission channel working against this name. |
| Stock setup | The long trend is broken and the stock remains under its 200-day average; -4.3% versus the 20-day, -19.4% versus the 200-day, RSI 31.9. |
Action Matrix (reviewed 2026-09-28; levels are standing conditions)
| Signal | Condition | Level | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Out | Price below the 200-day | 200-day, $233.74 on 2026-09-23 | A washout buy here is the pattern the desk's call record says loses; wait for the trend to turn |
| 🟡 Wait | Two closes back above the August 28 close | $208.05 | The last level before the September leg down; reclaiming it would be the first higher high |
| 🟢 Buy | A reclaim and hold of the 200-day with housing data turning | $234–$240 | Only a repaired trend is a trend-hold entry |
| 🟠 Target | First target after a reclaim | $245 | The level where this profile opened on April 10 ($245.78) |
| 🔴 Thesis breaks | A second guidance cut, or comparable sales turning negative | — | Would say demand, not rates, is the problem |
The Story Right Now (as of 2026-09-28)
$LOW is sliding: down 9.8% since August 28 and down 14.6% since June 29, 19.4% below its 200-day average and 36.0% below its 52-week high.
Data as of 2026-09-28 close: LOW $187.66, RSI 31.9, strong-down, -4.3% vs SMA20, -19.4% vs SMA200, 7D -1.7%, 30D -9.8%, 1Y -25.9%, -36.0% from the 52-week high.
Business and mechanism. The second-largest US home-improvement chain; revenue leans on do-it-yourself customers more than on contractors.
Prior case (2026-09-23). The drawdown is the deepest in this file and RSI is near oversold — but the macro premise that underwrote the name (rate cuts reviving housing turnover) has inverted.
Prior proof (2026-09-23). The Q2 report on 2026-08-19 beat on earnings but trimmed 2026 sales guidance to $92B on soft DIY demand, with comparable sales up only 0.2% (company release, per the August news pull).
The countercase. The Fed raised its target range 25bp to 3.75%–4.00% on 2026-09-16 and markets now price another hike in October; housing-linked spending is the transmission channel working against this name.
Newest statement check. The newest verified quarter ends 2026-07-31 (filed 2026-08-27); revenue was $25.96B. Against 2025-08-01 revenue of $23.96B, that is +8.3% year over year.
News and attention check. The news search for the latest move failed; the last completed search was on 2026-08-25. No company event for LOW was recorded between September 24 and 28.
The call: 🔴 Out — no entry while below the 200-day. Entry $234–$240 only after a reclaim of the 200-day · stop $214 · first target $245 · low conviction.
Extended analysis
Price Data (live — latest settled close)
A live table: every cell shows the latest settled close, named in the first row. Dated readings live in the Research Log.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| As of (settled close) | 2026-10-16 |
| Price ($) | 197.38 |
| RSI (14) | 58.4 |
| 20-day average ($) | 187.69 |
| vs 20-day (%) | 5.2 |
| 50-day average ($) | 199.78 |
| vs 50-day (%) | -1.2 |
| 200-day average ($) | 228.78 |
| vs 200-day (%) | -13.7 |
| 1D (%) | 0.85 |
| 7D (%) | 6.12 |
| 30D (%) | 1.69 |
| 3M (%) | -5.44 |
| 1Y (%) | -18.81 |
| 1Y vs benchmark (points) | -34.34 |
| From 52-week high (%) | -32.65 |
Financial Proof
Filed-period check (as of 2026-09-28): The newest verified quarter ended 2026-07-31 and was filed 2026-08-27. Revenue was $25.96B; GAAP net income was $2.40B; diluted EPS was 4.27. Source: Massive income statements and the filing. Dated historical tables below retain their own period basis.
The recent filed revenue series shows the direction of the business; missing cells are left unavailable.
| Period end | Revenue | YoY | Operating income | GAAP net income | Filing date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-02 | $23.59B | — | $3.45B | $2.38B | 2024-08-29 |
| 2025-05-02 | $20.93B | — | $2.49B | $1.64B | 2025-05-29 |
| 2025-08-01 | $23.96B | +1.6% | $3.47B | $2.40B | 2025-08-28 |
| 2025-10-31 | $20.81B | — | $2.48B | $1.62B | 2025-11-26 |
| 2026-05-01 | $23.08B | +10.3% | $2.55B | $1.63B | 2026-05-28 |
| 2026-07-31 | $25.96B | +8.3% | $3.55B | $2.40B | 2026-08-27 |
Research Log
| Date | Update |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | Created deep dive — housing recovery play; RSI 53, price $245.78, golden cross intact |
| 2026-05-29 | LOW $214.36, RSI 37.1, strong-down; 30D -10.23%, 3M -16.25%, -26.85% from 52wkHi. Price blown through all prior entry levels ($235 SMA20, $255 SMA50). Rate-cut thesis has not materialized. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-06-16 | LOW $224.02, RSI 56, recovering; 7D +2.14%, 30D +2.75%, 3M -6.09%; -23.56% from 52wkHi; +4.2% above SMA20 ($215.04). RSI recovery from 37 → 56 significant; price has reclaimed SMA20. Housing ETFs (ITB/XHB) also breaking out — macro backdrop improving. Rate-cut catalyst still not confirmed but thesis stabilizing. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-11 | LOW $211.63, RSI 41.1, strong-down; 7D -3.7%, 30D -4.26%, 3M -13.94%; -27.79% from 52wkHi (new low for the drawdown); back -3.6% below SMA20 ($219.55). June's SMA20 reclaim fully reversed. Tape-vs-thesis note added under editorial. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-17 | LOW $208.73, RSI 41.4, strong-down; 7D -1.37%, 30D -6.06%, 3M -17.2%; -28.78% from 52wkHi (new drawdown low); -3.8% below SMA20. Essentially unchanged from 07/11 — still no reclaim signal. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-25 | LOW $207.64, RSI 44, strong-down; 7D -0.52%, 30D -6.24%, 3M -15.06%; -30.27% from 52wkHi (new drawdown low); -2.7% below SMA20. RSI warmed slightly but no reclaim signal. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-28 | LOW $218.24, RSI 55.9, weak-up; 7D +7.9%, 30D -0.03%, 3M -5.96%; -25.53% from 52wkHi (narrowed); +2.8% above SMA20, +2% above SMA50. First SMA20 reclaim since the June bounce reversed. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-31 | LOW $207.81, RSI 45.7, strong-down; 7D +0.08%; 30D -5.78%; 3M -10.39%; -29.09% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-08 | LOW $223.35, RSI 59.9, weak-up; 7D +7.48%; 30D +5.58%; 3M -1.95%; -24.95% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-14 | LOW $218.47, RSI 53.6, weak-up; 7D -2.18%; 30D +4.85%; 3M +0.64%; -25.54% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-22 | LOW $216.09, RSI 50.0, weak-up; 7D -1.08%; 30D +5.75%; 3M +0.49%; -26.26% from 52wk high. 1Y -15.47%, vs SMA200 -9.00%. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-28 | LOW $208.05, RSI 41.3, strong-down; 7D -3.73%; 30D -3.54%; 3M -2.94%; -29.01% from 52wk high. 1Y -19.22%, vs SMA200 -12.2%. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-09-04 | LOW $204.45, RSI 41.2, strong-down; 7D -1.74%; 30D -7.04%; 3M -2.98%; -30.24% from 52wk high. 1Y -22.72%, vs SMA200 -13.50%. News not pulled for this move (last fetched 2026-08-25, predates this window). |
| 2026-09-11 | LOW $196.82, RSI 33.8, strong-down; 7D -3.73%; 30D -8.87%; 3M -10.85%; -32.84% from 52wk high, a new file low. 1Y -27.75%, vs SMA200 -16.50%. Regime downgraded to "collapse" (from "downtrend"). Stock-events checked, none on file. News not pulled for this move (last fetched 2026-08-25, over two weeks stale). No new fundamentals filed since 09-04. |
| 2026-09-18 | LOW $192.49, RSI 30.7 (first oversold reading in this series), strong-down; 1D -0.88%; 7D -2.20%; 30D -12.50%; 3M -13.37%; -34.32% from 52wk high, a new file low. 1Y -28.06% with alpha1y -43.07 and price -17.9% below the 200-day — a broken long trend, not a pullback inside a good one. The Federal Reserve raised rates 25 basis points on 2026-09-16, the first increase since 2023, which inverts the rate-cut premise this thesis rested on. Stock-events checked: no LOW row dated 2026-09-12 to 2026-09-18. News not pulled for this move — receipt last written 2026-08-25. No newly filed period on disk: the newest filed quarter still ends 2026-05-01, so the Q2 results released 2026-08-19 are not yet in the filing cache. |
| 2026-09-23 | LOW $191.36, RSI 34.7, strong-down; 1D -2.41%; 7D -1.41%; 30D -11.81%; 3M -13.59%; -34.70% from 52wk high, a new file low. 1Y -26.35% with a one-year excess return of -42.12 points and price -18.1% below the 200-day — still a broken long trend. Top rewritten with a call (Out below the 200-day; structural reclaim level the August 28 close, $208.05) replacing the old undated watch framing. Macro: the five-year Treasury crossed 5% (Bloomberg, 2026-09-23) and markets price an October hike (CNBC, 2026-09-23). Stock-events checked: no LOW row dated 2026-09-19 to 2026-09-23. News not pulled for this move — receipt still last written 2026-08-25. No newly filed period on disk: newest filed quarter still ends 2026-05-01 (10-Q filed 2026-05-28); the Q2 quarter reported 2026-08-19 is not in the filing cache. |
| 2026-09-28 | LOW $187.66, RSI 31.9, -4.3% vs SMA20, 30D -9.8%. The long trend is broken and the stock remains under its 200-day average; The newest verified quarter ends 2026-07-31 (filed 2026-08-27); revenue was $25.96B. Against 2025-08-01 revenue of $23.96B, that is +8.3% year over year. The news search for the latest move failed; the last completed search was on 2026-08-25. No company event for LOW was recorded between September 24 and 28. |
Sources
- Federal Reserve decision: 2026-09-18-market-brief (25bp increase to a 3.75%–4.00% target range, 2026-09-16).
- Rates, 2026-09-23: Bloomberg, five-year Treasury above 5%; Bloomberg, largest long-bond ETF at a record low; CNBC, market sees next Fed hike in October — captured under 2026-09-23-*.
- News receipt: latest (fetched 2026-08-25, before this move; Q2 release and coverage dated 2026-08-18 to 2026-08-20).
- Scheduled-event check:
research/stock-events/— no LOW row dated 2026-09-12 to 2026-09-23. - Prior-cycle history: this file's dated update log.
2026-09-28 refresh receipts
2026-09-28 settled-close receipt: *, LOW row dated 2026-09-28; tape values above are bound to the current summary fields.
2026-09-28 financial-period check: income-statements and key-financials; newest verified 2026-07-31 period, filed 2026-08-27 (Massive statement / SEC period cross-check).
2026-09-28 news receipt check: latest, fetched 2026-08-25; receipt is not current; latest-session cause remains unassigned.
2026-09-28 stock-event scan:
research/stock-events/, no LOW row dated 2026-09-24 through 2026-09-28.2026-09-28 captured-follows scan: tweets has 0 September 24–28 document(s) tagging LOW.
Retrospective social-search receipt (captured 2026-09-29): 2026-09-29-social-search-low; quality/attention check only, not a September 28 event or price source.
2026-09-29 browser discovery check for LOW: news-discovery-google-sep29 (key
LOW); search links only, not evidence of an event or of absence of news.