Article published Sep 28, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.
MPWR Price Structure
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Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. is doing well: up 2.9% since June 29 and up 7.6% since August 28, 6.0% above its 200-day average, and up 52.4% over the past year. At the 2026-09-28 settled close, MPWR $1351.20 was +8.6% versus its 20-day average and +7.6% over 30 days. The newest verified quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-08-05); revenue was $980.6M. Against 2025-06-30 revenue of $664.6M, that is +47.6% year over year. About 20x trailing sales and 83x trailing GAAP earnings (as of 2026-09-23 at $1,355.47); a tax-accounting material weakness was unremediated at June 30. The standing call is 🟡 Wait for the flag after the pop. Entry $1,270–$1,320 on a pullback that holds the 200-day · stop $1,200 · first target $1,560 · medium conviction.
Quick Snapshot (as of 2026-09-28)
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| The call | 🟡 Wait for the flag after the pop. Entry $1,270–$1,320 on a pullback that holds the 200-day · stop $1,200 · first target $1,560 · medium conviction |
| What is MPWR? | A fabless power-semiconductor company that sells complete power-management solutions — processor, memory, networking and storage rails — rather than single chips. |
| Why look now? | Prior case (2026-09-23): Q2 revenue grew 47.6% YoY to $980.6M, Enterprise Data grew 164% to $380.6M, and the Q3 guide of $1.14–$1.16B implies another roughly 17% sequential step (Q2 10-Q and release). |
| What is the proof? | Latest verified period ended 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-05: revenue $980.6M. Prior case: Filed: operating margin rose to 31.0% and every end market grew sequentially in Q2. Q3 is reported in late October. |
| What is the objection? | About 20x trailing sales and 83x trailing GAAP earnings (as of 2026-09-23 at $1,355.47); a tax-accounting material weakness was unremediated at June 30. |
| Stock setup | The long trend remains intact; +8.6% versus the 20-day, +6.0% versus the 200-day, RSI 58.3. |
Action Matrix (reviewed 2026-09-28; levels are standing conditions)
| Signal | Condition | Level | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟡 Wait | Three sessions after an 18% seven-day run to September 23; RSI 58.3 at the September 28 close | — | Buying the pop is the pattern the desk's record says has not paid; buy the flag |
| 🟢 Buy | A pullback that holds the 200-day | $1,270–$1,320 | Confirms the reclaim as a floor |
| 🟠 Target | First target | $1,560 | The June 18 close area ($1,563.70), the last high on this file's log |
| 🔴 Out | A close back below the September 18 close | $1,217.80 | The reclaim failed |
| 🔴 Thesis breaks | Q3 revenue below $1.14B, or inventory and opex outrunning gross profit | — | The multiple needs the guide delivered |
The Story Right Now (as of 2026-09-28)
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. is doing well: up 2.9% since June 29 and up 7.6% since August 28, 6.0% above its 200-day average, and up 52.4% over the past year.
Data as of 2026-09-28 close: MPWR $1351.2, RSI 58.3, strong-up, +8.6% vs SMA20, +6.0% vs SMA200, 7D +5.8%, 30D +7.6%, 1Y +52.4%, -21.2% from the 52-week high.
Business and mechanism. A fabless power-semiconductor company that sells complete power-management solutions — processor, memory, networking and storage rails — rather than single chips.
Prior case (2026-09-23). Q2 revenue grew 47.6% YoY to $980.6M, Enterprise Data grew 164% to $380.6M, and the Q3 guide of $1.14–$1.16B implies another roughly 17% sequential step (Q2 10-Q and release).
Prior proof (2026-09-23). Filed: operating margin rose to 31.0% and every end market grew sequentially in Q2. Q3 is reported in late October.
The countercase. About 20x trailing sales and 83x trailing GAAP earnings (as of 2026-09-23 at $1,355.47); a tax-accounting material weakness was unremediated at June 30.
Newest statement check. The newest verified quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-08-05); revenue was $980.6M. Against 2025-06-30 revenue of $664.6M, that is +47.6% year over year.
News and attention check. The news search for the latest move failed; the last completed search was on 2026-09-25. No company event for MPWR was recorded between September 24 and 28.
The call: 🟡 Wait for the flag after the pop. Entry $1,270–$1,320 on a pullback that holds the 200-day · stop $1,200 · first target $1,560 · medium conviction.
Extended analysis
Price Data (live — latest settled close)
A live table: every cell shows the latest settled close, named in the first row. Dated readings live in the Research Log.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| As of (settled close) | 2026-10-16 |
| Price ($) | 1210.86 |
| RSI (14) | 37.7 |
| 20-day average ($) | 1352.47 |
| vs 20-day (%) | -10.5 |
| 50-day average ($) | 1307.49 |
| vs 50-day (%) | -7.4 |
| 200-day average ($) | 1303.84 |
| vs 200-day (%) | -7.1 |
| 1D (%) | -3.07 |
| 7D (%) | -12.65 |
| 30D (%) | 5.51 |
| 3M (%) | -7.71 |
| 1Y (%) | 17.92 |
| 1Y vs benchmark (points) | 2.39 |
| From 52-week high (%) | -29.36 |
Prior Research (prepared by 2026-09-23; current call and filed-period check above)
Summary
MPWR has spent years moving from individual voltage-regulator chips toward complete power solutions. AI accelerates that strategy because customers need coordinated products around processors, memory, switches and optical modules. A supplier that can solve the whole rail can win more content and remain embedded as platforms evolve.
The latest quarter is unusually clean evidence. Every end market grew sequentially. Enterprise Data rose 45% QoQ and 164% YoY, Communications rose 78% YoY, and operating margin expanded even as the company invested in capacity. Management is sampling high-voltage AC-DC products for future 800V data-center architectures, pushing the addressable system farther upstream.
The operating thesis is working faster than the cautious version required. The investment thesis is harder. At about 20.3x trailing sales (as of 2026-09-28 at $1351.20, price-only repricing of the September 23 share and revenue basis), the stock needs enterprise-data growth, market-share gains and margin discipline to continue together.
Why This Moment Is Different
| Period | Revenue | Enterprise Data | GAAP operating margin | What changed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $751.2M | — | 26.6% | The broader solution strategy was already scaling. |
| Q1 2026 | $804.2M | $262.8M | 30.0% | Enterprise Data reached 32.7% of revenue. |
| Q2 2026 | $980.6M | $380.6M | 31.0% | Enterprise Data became 38.8% of revenue and all end markets grew sequentially. |
| Q3 2026 guide | $1.14–1.16B | — | — | The midpoint implies about 17.3% sequential growth. |
The quality of the Q2 mix matters. Enterprise Data supplied the largest growth, while Communications benefited from optical modules and switches. Storage and Computing, Automotive, Industrial and Consumer all grew sequentially too. AI is creating the acceleration without masking a collapse elsewhere.
Management also extended its capacity goal significantly beyond $6B of annual revenue. That ambition is supported by a $1.414B cash-and-short-term-investment position and strong operating cash flow. It creates a new obligation: inventory, supply agreements and manufacturing partners must scale without degrading returns.
How the Business Makes Money
MPWR is a fabless supplier built around proprietary process technologies, circuit designs, packaging and control algorithms. A diversified network of foundries and assembly partners produces the devices.
| End market | Q2 2026 revenue | What MPWR supplies |
|---|---|---|
| Enterprise Data | $380.6M | Power solutions for AI accelerators, servers and data-center infrastructure. |
| Storage & Computing | $199.8M | Power for memory, storage, notebooks and conventional computing. |
| Automotive | $157.1M | ADAS, infotainment and vehicle power-management products. |
| Communications | $131.5M | Power for optical modules, networking equipment and switches. |
| Consumer & Industrial | $111.6M combined | A broad tail of appliances, controls and industrial systems. |
The moat is system-level integration. Higher switching frequency and compact packaging can reduce board area, heat and component count. Design engineers work with customers early, which creates switching costs after qualification. The catalogue then lets MPWR reuse technology across many end markets.
The model depends on external manufacturing. Diversifying foundries and assembly partners improves resilience, but supply constraints, export controls and geopolitical disruption can still impair delivery. Inventory reached $675.8M in Q2, up 38% YoY, although days of inventory fell to 140 from 150 as revenue grew faster.
What the Filing Says the Company Is Becoming
Management's phrase is a shift from chip-only supplier to full-service solutions provider. Q2 gave that strategy several concrete markers:
- Initial orders arrived for high-speed DDR5 memory components.
- High-voltage AC-DC products began sampling for 800V data-center architectures.
- Automotive products shipped into more than 1,500 new sockets during the first half.
- The long-run capacity goal moved significantly above $6B.
This expands both content and responsibility. Full solutions can deepen customer relationships and increase revenue per platform. They also require more R&D, field support, inventory and product breadth. GAAP operating expenses rose 16.3% sequentially in Q2, and stock-based compensation reached $53.5M for the quarter. Revenue is currently outrunning those costs; that spread is central to the thesis.
Founder and CEO Michael Hsing remains the strategic anchor. Founder leadership supports long investment cycles and process discipline. It also concentrates succession risk and makes the heavy insider-selling record more relevant as governance context.
The accounting record belongs in the foreground. In February 2026, MPWR restated its 2024 annual statements and all three 2025 interim periods after finding an error in deferred-tax accounting tied to a foreign incentive. The correction was non-cash and did not change revenue or the operating growth described here, but it reduced the previously reported 2024 tax benefit and deferred taxes by $194.6M. The related material weakness remained unremediated on June 30; management expects to complete remediation by fiscal year-end. Current quarterly figures in this profile use the restated series where applicable.
What the Street and Public Conversation Are Saying
The market sees MPWR as a broad AI socket-share winner rather than a one-product supplier. Q2 supports the broad framing: AI compute, memory, optical networking and future 800V conversion all contributed to the roadmap. Exact customer-share estimates remain outside the primary filing evidence and should not be promoted into facts.
Fresh social search found four nominally relevant posts from eight raw results, but only one discussed MPWR's actual earnings. The others were broad AI-power threads or false positives. Public discussion confirms strong enthusiasm and adds little independent customer evidence.
The aggregate insider feed reports no purchases and 90 sales, with roughly $848M of net selling over its captured period. Grants, taxes and prearranged plans can make the gross total look more dramatic than the signal. The useful conclusion is limited: insider behavior provides no valuation reassurance. It does not contradict the reported revenue.
The Conviction Chain
| Link | Evidence today | What would strengthen it | What breaks it |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI systems require more power content | Enterprise Data grew 164% YoY; Communications grew 78% on optical and switch demand. | Content expands across processors, memory, networking and 800V systems. | Customers integrate functions internally or reduce MPWR content. |
| MPWR wins as a full-solution supplier | All end markets grew sequentially; new DDR5 orders and 800V samples broaden the portfolio. | Multiple large customers adopt the new products in production. | Growth proves concentrated in one platform or customer. |
| Scale produces reliable operating leverage | GAAP operating margin rose to 31.0% from 24.8% a year earlier; the tax restatement did not change revenue. | Revenue outruns opex, inventory days fall and the material weakness is remediated. | Capacity, stock compensation and inventory rise faster than gross profit, or controls fail again. |
| The stock can absorb a normal cycle | One-year return is 48.26% and valuation is about 20.4x TTM sales (as of 2026-09-23). | Estimates compound faster than price for several quarters. | Even a modest growth pause compresses a premium multiple. |
The business earns Medium-High conviction. The stock stays Medium because valuation is the weakest link and a primary underwriting variable.
Financial Proof
| Quarter | Revenue | Gross margin | Operating income | Net income | Diluted EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $737.2M | 55.1% | $195.2M | $179.8M | $3.74 |
| Q4 2025 | $751.2M | 55.2% | $199.9M | $171.7M | $3.49 |
| Q1 2026 | $804.2M | 55.3% | $241.2M | $193.2M | $3.92 |
| Q2 2026 | $980.6M | 55.2% | $303.9M | $257.3M | $5.22 |
Trailing-four-quarter revenue is $3.273B and GAAP net income is $801.9M (unchanged — no newer quarter has filed since Q2 2026). As of 2026-09-23 at $1,355.47, equity value is about $66.6B on the desk's repriced market-capitalization field, which is about 20.4x sales and 83.1x earnings. Earlier rows used a quote-service capitalization, so part of the step from 19.1x/78.1x on September 18 is a share-basis change rather than price alone. Q3 2025 is the restated value published in the 2025 Form 10-K. Q4 2025 is the 2025 full year less the first nine months, both as filed in that 10-K; its diluted EPS ($3.49) is derived the same way, as the filed full-year $12.86 less the filed nine-month $9.37. The other EPS cells are the filed quarterly diluted EPS.
Q2 operating cash flow was $227.9M. Cash, equivalents and short-term investments totaled $1.414B. The balance sheet can support the capacity plan; the valuation requires that investment to create substantial incremental revenue.
The Stock Setup (as of 2026-09-18 — history; the current setup is at the top of this page)
| Signal | September 18 reading | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $1,217.80 | Down 1.35% on the week despite a 4.12% Friday on 2.3x normal volume. |
| RSI (14) | 46.2 | Warmed from 43.1, still under the midline. |
| 7D / 30D / 3M | -1.4% / -6.3% / -22.1% | The week turned negative again; the month improved, the quarter deepened. |
| 52-week drawdown | -29.0% | Widened from -28.0%. |
| SMA20 / SMA50 / SMA200 | -1.0% / -6.5% / -3.6% | The 20-day gap nearly closed while the 200-day gap widened from -1.8% — a third week below the long average. |
| One-year return | +32.7% | Decelerated from +46.9%; relative performance is still positive at +17.68 points. |
Price has now been below the 200-day for three straight cycles and the gap widened this week from -1.8% to -3.6%. Q3 guidance ($1.14–1.16B) is still the deciding fundamental test: a hold of that guide with $1,263.60 reclaimed would say this is a normal pullback inside an intact trend; a miss or a continued failure to reclaim would say the long trend itself is breaking. Friday's 4.12% gain came on 2.3 times average volume into quarterly options expiry, and the news pull dated the same day returned only quote and aggregator pages — no dated cause is on file. No scheduled event is on file for this window.
What to Watch Next
- Q3 revenue: $1.14–1.16B is a demanding guide and the next proof of capacity conversion.
- Enterprise Data mix: growth should remain broad across compute, memory and networking.
- 800V samples: production orders would extend MPWR's reach beyond board-level power.
- Inventory and opex: scale is healthy only while revenue and gross profit grow faster.
- Customer concentration: broader ordering patterns need to survive a platform transition.
Financial Proof
Filed-period check (as of 2026-09-28): The newest verified quarter ended 2026-06-30 and was filed 2026-08-05. Revenue was $980.6M; GAAP net income was $257.3M; diluted EPS was 5.22. Source: Massive income statements and the filing. Dated historical tables below retain their own period basis.
The recent filed revenue series shows the direction of the business; missing cells are left unavailable.
| Period end | Revenue | YoY | Operating income | GAAP net income | Filing date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-30 | $507.4M | — | $116.5M | $100.4M | 2024-08-02 |
| 2024-09-30 | $620.1M | — | $164.0M | $144.4M | 2024-11-06 |
| 2025-03-31 | $637.6M | — | $168.8M | $135.1M | 2025-05-05 |
| 2025-06-30 | $664.6M | +31.0% | $164.8M | $135.0M | 2025-08-04 |
| 2025-09-30 | $737.2M | +18.9% | $195.2M | $179.8M | 2025-11-05 |
| 2026-03-31 | $804.2M | +26.1% | $241.2M | $193.2M | 2026-05-04 |
| 2026-06-30 | $980.6M | +47.6% | $303.9M | $257.3M | 2026-08-05 |
Refresh History
| Date | Price | What changed |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | — | Initial AI-power profile. |
| 2026-05-29 | $1,566.21 | Momentum reset after a large rerating; no new fundamentals incorporated. |
| 2026-06-16 | $1,498.77 | Price reached the lower end of the old technical entry range. |
| 2026-06-22 | $1,563.70 | Broad semiconductor rally; no company-specific catalyst. |
| 2026-07-11 | $1,352.74 | Rally reversed and price fell below short-term averages. |
| 2026-07-17 | $1,312.00 | Drawdown deepened near the old technical stop. |
| 2026-07-25 | $1,333.81 | Modest stabilization. |
| 2026-07-28 | $1,282.01 | Fresh low approached the 200-day trend. |
| 2026-07-31 | $1,316.18 | Small bounce. |
| 2026-08-08 | $1,401.54 | Recovery after Q2. |
| 2026-08-14 | $1,402.01 | Price stalled. |
| 2026-08-22 | $1,316.28 | Q2 filing incorporated: enterprise-data growth and guidance strengthened; valuation remains the binding risk. |
| 2026-08-28 | $1,256.26 | Tape update: no new filing this cycle. RSI 40.1, a new file-low price, 200-day cushion thinned to +1.1%, -26.7% from high. Stock-events checked: none new. News not pulled for this move — the MPWR cache was last fetched 2026-08-23, stale relative to this week's decline. |
| 2026-09-04 | $1,223.86 | Tape update: no new filing this cycle (newest cached quarter is still Q2 2026). RSI 38.4, another new file-low price, and the stock has now broken below its 200-day (-2.1%, from +1.1% above) for the first time in this file — the long trend is genuinely under test, not merely a pullback. Multiples restated at the new price (19.3x TTM sales, 78.6x TTM GAAP net income, both down slightly on price alone). Stock-events checked: none new. News not pulled for this move — cache last fetched 2026-08-23, now nearly two weeks stale. |
| 2026-09-11 | $1,234.46 | Tape update: no new filing this cycle (newest cached quarter is still Q2 2026). RSI warmed to 43.1, price up slightly (+0.9% 7D) but 30D/3M both deepened further (-13.4%/-21.7%); still below the 200-day (-1.8%, essentially unchanged from -2.1%) — the break has neither reversed nor deepened. Multiples restated at the new price (19.4x TTM sales, 79.2x TTM GAAP net income, both up slightly on price alone). Stock-events checked: none new. News not pulled for this move — cache still last fetched 2026-08-23, now nearly three weeks stale. |
| 2026-09-18 | $1,217.80 | Tape update: no newly filed period on disk (newest filed quarter still ends 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-05). RSI 46.2, 1D +4.12% on 2.3x average volume, 7D -1.35%, 30D -6.33%, 3M -22.12%, -28.95% from the high. Third straight cycle below the 200-day and the gap widened to -3.6% (from -1.8%); 1Y decelerated to +32.69% with alpha1y +17.68 — the long trend is under test, not broken. Multiples restated at the new price (19.1x TTM sales, 78.1x TTM GAAP net income, both down on price alone). Stock-events checked: no MPWR row dated 2026-09-12 to 2026-09-18. News pulled 2026-09-18: quote and aggregator pages only, including one headlined on Friday's rise with no event behind it — no dated cause for the move. Friday was quarterly options expiry across the tape. |
| 2026-09-23 | $1,355.47 | Tape update: no newly filed period on disk (newest filed quarter still ends 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-05). RSI 60.1, 1D -1.82%, 7D +18.11%, 30D +5.48%, 3M -5.54%, -20.92% from the high. The 200-day was reclaimed (+6.8%) after three cycles below; 1Y +48.26% with a one-year excess return of +32.49 points — the long trend is intact again. The 2026-09-22 brief logged an 8.1% day on 2.1x volume the same session Vicor's guidance raise lifted the power-supply group; no MPWR-specific cause on file (news pulled 2026-09-22, quote pages only). Multiples restated at the new price on the repriced market-cap field (20.4x TTM sales, 83.1x TTM GAAP net income — partly a share-basis change). Stock-events checked: no MPWR row dated 2026-09-19 to 2026-09-23. |
| 2026-09-28 | $1351.20 | RSI 58.3; +8.6% vs SMA20; 30D +7.6%. The long trend remains intact; The newest verified quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-08-05); revenue was $980.6M. Against 2025-06-30 revenue of $664.6M, that is +47.6% year over year. The news search for the latest move failed; the last completed search was on 2026-09-25. No company event for MPWR was recorded between September 24 and 28. |
Sources
- MPWR Q2 2026 earnings commentary — end-market revenue, margins, outlook, capacity, balance sheet and product milestones.
- MPWR Q2 2026 Form 8-K — filing receipt.
- MPWR Q2 2026 Form 10-Q — current financial statements, legal proceedings and unremediated material weakness.
- MPWR 2025 Form 10-K — business model, supply chain, competition and filed risks.
- MPWR{massive,edgar,news}/` — financial series and freshness receipts.
- ai-power — September 23, 2026 price truth and repriced market-capitalization field.
- 2026-09-22-market-brief — the 8.1% volume day and the power-supply group's move on Vicor's guidance raise.
- latest — news receipt, fetched 2026-09-22 (quote pages and an AI-generated summary page).
research/stock-events/— no MPWR row dated 2026-09-12 to 2026-09-23.- 2026-09-17-market-brief — quarterly options expiry on Friday 2026-09-18.
- 2026-08-23-social-search-mpwr-monolithic-power-systems — public-discussion quality check.
- filings — primary Form 4 links supporting the insider-activity context.
2026-09-28 refresh receipts
2026-09-28 settled-close receipt: *, MPWR row dated 2026-09-28; tape values above are bound to the current summary fields.
2026-09-28 financial-period check: income-statements and key-financials; newest verified 2026-06-30 period, filed 2026-08-05 (Massive statement / SEC period cross-check).
2026-09-28 news receipt check: latest, fetched 2026-09-25; receipt is not current; latest-session cause remains unassigned.
2026-09-28 stock-event scan:
research/stock-events/, no MPWR row dated 2026-09-24 through 2026-09-28.2026-09-28 captured-follows scan: tweets has 0 September 24–28 document(s) tagging MPWR.
Retrospective social-search receipt (captured 2026-09-29): 2026-09-29-social-search-mpwr-monolithic-power-systems-inc; quality/attention check only, not a September 28 event or price source.
2026-09-29 browser discovery check for MPWR: news-discovery-google-sep29 (key
MPWR); search links only, not evidence of an event or of absence of news.
Correction (2026-10-09): Six readings in this profile were wrong and are corrected in place. In the Financial Proof table, Q3 2025 diluted EPS read $3.65 and Q4 2025 read $3.48. Those were quarterly net income divided by the Q2 2026 share count, not filed figures. The filed values are $3.74 (Q3 2025, restated in the 2025 Form 10-K) and $3.49 (Q4 2025, full year less nine months). Gross margin read 55.0% for Q3 2025 and 55.1% for Q4 2025. On filed gross profit and revenue they are 55.1% and 55.2%. In the Action Matrix, the first target cited "the June 22 close ($1,563.70)". $1,563.70 is the June 18 close; June 22 closed at $1,537.88. The Wait row, dated September 28, carried the September 23 reading (RSI 60.1, an 18% seven-day gain) as if it were current. RSI was 58.3 at the September 28 close. No call, level or conviction changes.