Article published Sep 28, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.
MSFT Price Structure
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Microsoft is holding up: roughly flat since August 28 (down 0.8%), up 38.2% since June 29 and 17.8% above its 200-day average, down 1.1% over the past year. At the 2026-09-28 settled close, MSFT $509.22 was +1.9% versus its 20-day average and -0.8% over 30 days. The newest verified derived fourth quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-07-29); revenue was $90.01B. Against 2025-06-30 revenue of $76.44B, that is +17.7% year over year. The trailing-year return is -1.1%, 16.4 points behind the benchmark; the recovery remains 8.0% below its high. The standing call is 🟡 Wait for the August high to break. Entry $505–$515 on a close above $513.52 · stop $470 · first target $550 · medium conviction.
Quick Snapshot (as of 2026-09-28)
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| The call | 🟡 Wait for the August high to break. Entry $505–$515 on a close above $513.52 · stop $470 · first target $550 · medium conviction |
| What is Microsoft? | Software, cloud (Azure) and AI infrastructure at the scale of a hyperscaler, with Office/365 and Windows as the cash base. |
| Why look now? | Prior case (2026-09-23): A 37% three-month recovery has consolidated for a month above the 20-day; a sell-side holdout turned positive on September 23 (CNBC). |
| What is the proof? | Latest verified period ended 2026-06-30, filed 2026-07-29: revenue $90.01B. Prior case: The July fiscal Q4 release (revenue $90.0B, +18%, as carried in the September 18 news pull) — since matched to the filed statement below. |
| What is the objection? | The trailing-year return is -1.1%, 16.4 points behind the benchmark; the recovery remains 8.0% below its high. |
| Stock setup | The shorter trend has repaired, but the trailing year still trails; +1.9% versus the 20-day, +17.8% versus the 200-day, RSI 58.6. |
Action Matrix (reviewed 2026-09-28; levels are standing conditions)
| Signal | Condition | Level | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟡 Wait | Inside the four-week range | — | The flag has not resolved |
| 🟢 Buy | A close above the August 28 close | $513.52 | The high close of the recovery on this file's log; a breakout from the flag |
| 🟠 Target | First target | $550 | A planning level just under the 52-week high |
| 🔴 Out | A close below the call's stop | $470 | Ends the setup; a close under the September 18 close ($493.78) and the 20-day is an earlier warning that the flag's floor broke, not the stop |
| 🔴 Thesis breaks | Azure growth decelerating in the October print | — | The recovery was paid for cloud and AI demand |
The Story Right Now (as of 2026-09-28)
Microsoft is holding up: roughly flat since August 28 (down 0.8%), up 38.2% since June 29 and 17.8% above its 200-day average, down 1.1% over the past year.
Data as of 2026-09-28 close: MSFT $509.22, RSI 58.6, strong-up, +1.9% vs SMA20, +17.8% vs SMA200, 7D +1.5%, 30D -0.8%, 1Y -1.1%, -8.0% from the 52-week high.
Condition check. The $509.22 close is inside the proposed entry range but below the $513.52 breakout trigger. The trigger has not fired.
Business and mechanism. Software, cloud (Azure) and AI infrastructure at the scale of a hyperscaler, with Office/365 and Windows as the cash base.
Prior case (2026-09-23). A 37% three-month recovery has consolidated for a month above the 20-day; a sell-side holdout turned positive on September 23 (CNBC).
Prior proof (2026-09-23). The July fiscal Q4 release (revenue $90.0B, +18%, as carried in the September 18 news pull) — since matched to the filed statement below.
The countercase. The trailing-year return is -1.1%, 16.4 points behind the benchmark; the recovery remains 8.0% below its high.
Newest statement check. The newest verified derived fourth quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-07-29); revenue was $90.01B. Against 2025-06-30 revenue of $76.44B, that is +17.7% year over year.
Cash conversion and spending. For the April–June quarter, SEC XBRL fiscal-year cash flow less the matching nine-month cash flow gives operating cash of $55.44B and cash capital spending of $35.80B, or 64.6% of operating cash. In the FY26 Q4 call, management said FY27 capex should grow year over year. Its roughly $175B calendar-2026 guide includes a lease-accounting reclassification, so that figure is not a like-for-like increase in underlying investment.
News and attention check. The September 28 hosted pull returned five quote pages, not a new issuer event. The capex and cash-conversion checks below come from filed and issuer-call sources; no cause is assigned to this session's move. No company event for MSFT was recorded between September 24 and 28. 2 social posts from tracked accounts mentioned it between September 24 and 28; that is attention, not company news.
The call: 🟡 Wait for the August high to break. Entry $505–$515 on a close above $513.52 · stop $470 · first target $550 · medium conviction.
Extended analysis
Price Data (live — latest settled close)
A live table: every cell shows the latest settled close, named in the first row. Dated readings live in the Research Log.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| As of (settled close) | 2026-10-16 |
| Price ($) | 529.05 |
| RSI (14) | 57.3 |
| 20-day average ($) | 520.22 |
| vs 20-day (%) | 1.7 |
| 50-day average ($) | 505.53 |
| vs 50-day (%) | 4.7 |
| 200-day average ($) | 435.25 |
| vs 200-day (%) | 21.6 |
| 1D (%) | -1.93 |
| 7D (%) | -1.13 |
| 30D (%) | 7.9 |
| 3M (%) | 34.34 |
| 1Y (%) | 3.41 |
| 1Y vs benchmark (points) | -12.12 |
| From 52-week high (%) | -4.46 |
Financial Proof
Filed-period check (as of 2026-09-28): The newest verified derived fourth quarter ended 2026-06-30 and was filed 2026-07-29. Revenue was $90.01B (FY $331.84B less nine months to 2026-03-31 $241.83B). Source: SEC key financials and the filing. Dated historical tables below retain their own period basis.
The recent filed revenue series shows the direction of the business; missing cells are left unavailable.
| Period end | Revenue | YoY | Operating income | GAAP net income | Filing date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-31 | $61.86B | — | $27.58B | $21.94B | 2024-04-25 |
| 2024-09-30 | $65.58B | — | $30.55B | $24.67B | 2024-10-30 |
| 2025-03-31 | $70.07B | +13.3% | $32.00B | $25.82B | 2025-04-30 |
| 2025-09-30 | $77.67B | +18.4% | $37.96B | $27.75B | 2025-10-29 |
| 2025-12-31 | $81.27B | — | $38.27B | $38.46B | 2026-01-28 |
| 2026-03-31 | $82.89B | +18.3% | $38.40B | $31.78B | 2026-04-29 |
| 2026-06-30 (FY less nine months) | $90.01B | — | unavailable | unavailable | 2026-07-29 |
Research Log
| Date | Note |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | MSFT $450.24, RSI 70.3, weak-up; +10.65% 30D. RSI extended — borderline overbought. |
| 2026-06-16 | MSFT $393.83, RSI 40.1, weak-down; -6.81% 30D. May recovery unwound. Death cross risk re-entering frame. -29.1% from 52wkHi. |
| 2026-06-26 | MSFT $372.97, RSI 40.8, strong-down; -5.6% 7D, -9.62% 30D, +4.77% 3M (window artifact). Death cross confirmed, regime downtrend. SMA200 at $446.27 is -16.5% overhead — structural downtrend territory. VWAP $443.94 also far overhead. Broken-cohort read: no entry until death-cross resolves + RSI reclaims 45 + SMA20 reclaim. -32.85% from 52wkHi and grinding. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-11 | MSFT $385.10, RSI 47.9, strong-down/downtrend; 7D +0.26%, 30D -1.34%, 3M +0.41%; -30.67% from 52wkHi; SMA20 reclaimed (+1.2% above, $380.51), still -4.5% below SMA50 and -12.6% below SMA200. Both stated 06-26 triggers (RSI>45, SMA20 reclaim) have fired — first bullish signal per the profile's own criteria. Death cross remains confirmed. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-17 | MSFT $393.82, RSI 51.7, strong-down/downtrend; 7D +2.26%, 30D +3.8%, 3M -5.6%; -29.1% from 52wkHi; SMA20 reclaim extending (+3.3% above), still -1.9% below SMA50 and -10.1% below SMA200. Death cross remains confirmed. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-25 | MSFT $381.70, RSI 44.5, strong-down/downtrend; 7D -3.08%, 30D +4.44%, 3M -9.91%; -31.3% from 52wkHi; SMA20 reclaim lost (-1.3% below), now -4.4% below SMA50 and -12.2% below SMA200. Both stated triggers (RSI>45, SMA20 reclaim) have un-fired. Death cross remains confirmed. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-28 | MSFT $393.35, RSI 51.5, strong-down/downtrend; 7D -1.11%, 30D +6.72%, 3M -7.13%; -29.18% from 52wkHi; SMA20 reclaimed (+1.1% above), now -1.3% below SMA50 and -9.2% below SMA200. Both stated triggers (RSI>45, SMA20 reclaim) have re-fired — second time since 07/11. Death cross remains confirmed. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-31 | MSFT $464.72, RSI 74.6, up; 7D +21.75%; 30D +20.93%; 3M +12.38%; -16.07% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-08 | MSFT $499.99, RSI 78.2, up; 7D +7.59%; 30D +30.43%; 3M +20.71%; -11.97% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-14 | MSFT $495.40, RSI 70.9, up; 7D -0.92%; 30D +25.22%; 3M +17.67%; -10.27% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-22 | MSFT $483.24, RSI 62.4, up; 7D -2.39%; 30D +23.80%; 3M +15.45%; -12.73% from 52wk high. 1Y -4.16%, vs SMA200 +12.00%. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-28 | MSFT $513.52, RSI 73.1, up; 7D +6.28%; 30D +31.49%; 3M +14.05%; -7.26% from 52wk high. 1Y +0.76%, vs SMA200 +19.1%. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-09-04 | MSFT $499.70, RSI 59.4, strong-up; 7D -2.72%; 30D +2.51%; 3M +19.93%; -9.76% from 52wk high. 1Y -1.63%, vs SMA200 +15.90%. News pulled 2026-09-04 flags a detailed Azure revenue disclosure on 2026-09-03 that coverage says boosted the stock mid-week; the 1-day reading below is a pullback into Friday's broader software/cloud rotation, not a reversal of that disclosure. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-09-11 | MSFT $495.63, RSI 56.7, strong-up; 7D -0.81%; 30D +0.65%; 3M +26.84%; -10.49% from 52wk high. 1Y -1.07% (essentially flat), vs SMA200 +14.90% — alpha1y still negative (-17.3%), so this is a flat trailing year on a real SMA200 cushion, not a clean deep-pullback read. Stock-events checked, none new. News pulled 2026-09-11: no fresh catalyst beyond the already-known Azure disclosure. No new fundamentals filed since 09-04. |
| 2026-09-18 | MSFT $493.78, RSI 53.1, strong-up; 1D -0.80%; 7D -0.37%; 30D +1.96%; 3M +30.15%; -10.82% from 52wk high. 1Y -2.89% with alpha1y -17.9 against price +14.4% above the 200-day — a strong one-quarter recovery on a flat-to-negative trailing year, not an established multi-year uptrend. Third consecutive flat-to-down week; price slipped just under the 20-day. News pulled 2026-09-18: a Nokia cloud and AI partnership, a Causaly integration into Microsoft 365, a reporting-reorganisation note, and the July fiscal Q4 results (revenue $90.0B, +18%; GAAP EPS $4.81, +32%) — none dated inside this week, so nothing names this week's move. Stock-events checked: no MSFT row dated 2026-09-12 to 2026-09-18. No newly filed period on disk: the newest filed quarter ends 2026-03-31, so the fiscal Q4 results released 2026-07-29 are not yet in the filing cache. |
| 2026-09-23 | MSFT $500.59, RSI 56.2, strong-up; 1D +0.52%; 7D +2.10%; 30D +2.73%; 3M +36.98%; -9.60% from 52wk high. 1Y -1.70% with a one-year excess return of -17.47 points; price +15.9% above the 200-day — a strong one-quarter recovery on a flat year. Top rewritten with a breakout call keyed to the 2026-08-28 close ($513.52); the historical $360–$375 entry and $400/$473 targets were retired. CNBC reported a Stifel upgrade to buy on 2026-09-23. Stock-events checked: no MSFT row dated 2026-09-19 to 2026-09-23. News pulled 2026-09-22 (quote/data-hub pages). No newly filed period on disk: newest filed quarter still ends 2026-03-31 (10-Q filed 2026-04-29); the fiscal Q4 results released in July are not in the filing cache. |
| 2026-09-28 | MSFT $509.22, RSI 58.6, +1.9% vs SMA20, 30D -0.8%. The shorter trend has repaired, but the trailing year still trails; The newest verified derived fourth quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-07-29); revenue was $90.01B. Against 2025-06-30 revenue of $76.44B, that is +17.7% year over year. The September 28 hosted pull returned five quote pages, not a new issuer event. The capex and cash-conversion checks below come from filed and issuer-call sources; no cause is assigned to this session's move. No company event for MSFT was recorded between September 24 and 28. Stop reconciled: the call's $470 stop now also sits in the Action Matrix Out row, which had carried the $493.78 September 18 close since 2026-09-23 without a stated source for the difference. |
Sources
- News receipt: latest (fetched 2026-09-22; quote and data-hub pages, several with inferred dates).
- Stifel upgrade: CNBC, "A rare Microsoft bear warms up to the stock," 2026-09-23 — captured under 2026-09-23-cnbc-a-rare-microsoft-bear-*.
- Nadella remarks (attributed, X post with enrichment gloss): @TheTranscript_ — 2026-09-19-thebuildout-microsoft-ceo-satya-nadella-*.
- Scheduled-event check:
research/stock-events/— no MSFT row dated 2026-09-12 to 2026-09-23. - Prior-cycle history: this file's dated update log.
2026-09-28 refresh receipts
2026-09-28 settled-close receipt: *, MSFT row dated 2026-09-28; tape values above are bound to the current summary fields.
2026-09-28 financial-period check: income-statements and key-financials; newest verified 2026-06-30 period, filed 2026-07-29 (SEC XBRL FY less nine months).
2026-09-28 news receipt check: latest, fetched 2026-09-28; fresh successful receipt; event-quality review summarized above.
2026-09-28 stock-event scan:
research/stock-events/, no MSFT row dated 2026-09-24 through 2026-09-28.2026-09-28 captured-follows scan: tweets has 2 September 24–28 document(s) tagging MSFT.
Retrospective social-search receipt (captured 2026-09-29): 2026-09-29-social-search-msft; quality/attention check only, not a September 28 event or price source.