Article published Sep 28, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.
NBIS Price Structure
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Nebius Group N.V. is recovering: up 10.8% since August 28, though still down 11.2% since June 29, and 40.7% above its 200-day average. At the 2026-09-28 settled close, NBIS $231.88 was +3.9% versus its 20-day average and +10.8% over 30 days. Nebius's August 12 SEC-filed Q2 exhibit reports $582.3M revenue (+454% YoY) versus $105.1M a year earlier. This is the current issuer-reported quarter in a filed 6-K exhibit; the generic SEC company-facts wrapper still stops at the annual 20-F. Deeply negative free cash flow (about -$3.4B in Q2), three customers at 59% of Q2 revenue, and NVIDIA — the key supplier — as a 9.3% holder. The standing call is 🟢 Buy while the September 4 high holds. Entry $222–$232 on closes above $226.58 · stop $205 · first target $259 · medium conviction.
Quick Snapshot (as of 2026-09-28)
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| The call | 🟢 Buy while the September 4 high holds. Entry $222–$232 on closes above $226.58 · stop $205 · first target $259 · medium conviction |
| What is Nebius? | A full-stack AI cloud: it builds data centers and GPU clusters, then sells training, inference, storage and orchestration. Avride and TripleTen are smaller side businesses. |
| Why look now? | Prior case (2026-09-23): Q2 revenue of $582.3M, up 454% YoY, with 40.6% adjusted EBITDA margin and prepaid multi-year contracts (SEC-filed Q2 release); an X post relayed on September 16 lists on-demand GPU price increases effective October 1 (H100 $3.85 to $4.50 an hour; B300 $7.85 to $9.50). |
| What is the proof? | Filed revenue, margin and contract economics are real. Pricing power is attributed, not filed: the rate card came via an X account (@ParadisLabs), not a company release in the desk's pull. |
| What is the objection? | Deeply negative free cash flow (about -$3.4B in Q2), three customers at 59% of Q2 revenue, and NVIDIA — the key supplier — as a 9.3% holder. |
| Stock setup | The long trend remains intact; +3.9% versus the 20-day, +40.7% versus the 200-day, RSI 53.2. |
Action Matrix (reviewed 2026-09-28; levels are standing conditions)
| Signal | Condition | Level | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢 Buy | Closes holding above the September 4 high | $222–$232 | The flag has resolved upward; the trigger is a structural high, not a moving average |
| 🟡 Wait | A close back below the September 4 high | $226.58 | The breakout would be unconfirmed |
| 🟠 Target | First target | $259 | The August 12 earnings-gap close ($259.20) |
| 🔴 Out | A close below the August 28 close | $209.18 | The last pullback low; losing it fails the retest |
| 🔴 Thesis breaks | Contracted power slipping, concentration rising, or pricing reversing | — | The case is delivered capacity at contracted yield |
The Story Right Now (as of 2026-09-28)
Nebius Group N.V. is recovering: up 10.8% since August 28, though still down 11.2% since June 29, and 40.7% above its 200-day average.
Data as of 2026-09-28 close: NBIS $231.88, RSI 53.2, strong-up, +3.9% vs SMA20, +40.7% vs SMA200, 7D -0.4%, 30D +10.8%, 1Y +110.4%, -22.7% from the 52-week high.
Condition check. The $231.88 close is inside the prior $222–$232 range and above the $226.58 pivot; the matrix requires closes that hold the pivot, so one price row alone is not confirmation.
Business and mechanism. A full-stack AI cloud: it builds data centers and GPU clusters, then sells training, inference, storage and orchestration. Avride and TripleTen are smaller side businesses.
Prior case (2026-09-23). Q2 revenue of $582.3M, up 454% YoY, with 40.6% adjusted EBITDA margin and prepaid multi-year contracts (SEC-filed Q2 release); an X post relayed on September 16 lists on-demand GPU price increases effective October 1 (H100 $3.85 to $4.50 an hour; B300 $7.85 to $9.50).
Prior proof (2026-09-23). Filed revenue, margin and contract economics are real. Pricing power is attributed, not filed: the rate card came via an X account (@ParadisLabs), not a company release in the desk's pull.
The countercase. Deeply negative free cash flow (about -$3.4B in Q2), three customers at 59% of Q2 revenue, and NVIDIA — the key supplier — as a 9.3% holder.
Newest statement check. Nebius's August 12 SEC-filed Q2 exhibit reports $582.3M revenue (+454% YoY) versus $105.1M a year earlier. This is the current issuer-reported quarter in a filed 6-K exhibit; the generic SEC company-facts wrapper still stops at the annual 20-F.
News and attention check. The fresh September 28 hosted receipt lists five quote pages, none a dated issuer event for the session. Its new-contract and buildout thesis still rests on the filed Q2 exhibit; the day's price cause is unassigned. No company event for NBIS was recorded between September 24 and 28. 19 social posts from tracked accounts mentioned it between September 24 and 28; that is attention, not company news.
The call: 🟢 Buy while the September 4 high holds. Entry $222–$232 on closes above $226.58 · stop $205 · first target $259 · medium conviction.
Extended analysis
Price Data (live — latest settled close)
A live table: every cell shows the latest settled close, named in the first row. Dated readings live in the Research Log.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| As of (settled close) | 2026-10-16 |
| Price ($) | 165.47 |
| RSI (14) | 30.6 |
| 20-day average ($) | 223.69 |
| vs 20-day (%) | -26 |
| 50-day average ($) | 222.8 |
| vs 50-day (%) | -25.7 |
| 200-day average ($) | 174.04 |
| vs 200-day (%) | -4.9 |
| 1D (%) | -12.18 |
| 7D (%) | -25.15 |
| 30D (%) | -20.97 |
| 3M (%) | -6.89 |
| 1Y (%) | 34.48 |
| 1Y vs benchmark (points) | 18.95 |
| From 52-week high (%) | -44.82 |
Prior Research (prepared by 2026-09-23; current call and filed-period check above)
Summary
Nebius has crossed the first line separating an AI infrastructure story from an operating business. Q2 revenue reached $582.3M, up 454% YoY and 45.9% sequentially. The core AI cloud contributed $575M. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA reached $236.2M, a 40.6% margin, while the cloud segment reached 50%.
The contract detail was stronger than the headline:
Nebius signed four landmark AI-cloud deals in Q2.
Average total contract value exceeded $1B per deal.
Contract yield was $20M–$25M per megawatt.
Seventy percent of the deals included customer prepayments.
Those prepayments covered 50%–60% of the associated capex.
Management estimated a one-year-ten-month payback on the Q2 contracts.
Then NVIDIA entered the capital structure. Nebius issued NVIDIA a pre-funded warrant covering 21.1M shares for about $2B; together with shares NVIDIA already held, its disclosed beneficial ownership reached 9.3%. Nebius said the proceeds would fund AI cloud and data-center expansion.
This is simultaneously strategic validation, cheaper growth capital and a demand-quality complication. NVIDIA is Nebius's critical hardware and platform supplier. Capital from that supplier helps Nebius build clusters that purchase the supplier's ecosystem. The loop can produce excellent returns if unrelated customers fill the clusters. The loop becomes fragile if hardware purchases outrun independent workload demand. Q2 proved customers and contract economics; utilization and cash after deployment are the next proof.
Why This Moment Matters
Nebius's August 12 earnings gap initially priced the Q2 evidence in one session. The stock closed at $259.20, up 34.1%, then fell back to $219.13 by August 21. The business figures did not disappear during that round trip. The market is repricing how much execution was already embedded in them.
Three measures need to remain separate:
| Measure | Current value | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 GAAP revenue | $582.3M | Compute and services recognized during the quarter. |
| Current annualized run-rate revenue | $3.0B | The latest operating pace annualized; higher than trailing revenue, without a full year of delivery. |
| Year-end ARR guidance | $7–$9B | A forward target requiring contracted capacity, deployment and service commencement. |
The same separation applies to cash. Customer prepayments improve liquidity before sites are built, and they appear in operating cash flow. They also create contract liabilities and performance obligations. At June 30, contract liabilities were $5.98B and remaining performance obligations were $37.49B. That is funded demand with a large delivery promise attached.
How the Business Makes Money
| Engine | What it sells | Economic role |
|---|---|---|
| AI cloud infrastructure | GPU clusters, networking, storage and bare-metal capacity for training and inference | The overwhelming growth engine; economics depend on utilization, contract yield per MW, power and hardware cost. |
| Cloud platform software | Orchestration, managed services, inference tools and optimization | Raises utilization and makes Nebius more than a GPU landlord. Aether, Echo, Token Factory and acquired inference capabilities are meant to improve output per system. |
| Asset-light partnerships | Nebius designs, operates and sells capacity for partners that own power or capital | A potential route to scale without placing every construction dollar on Nebius's balance sheet. Still early and execution-dependent. |
| Avride and TripleTen | Autonomous-driving technology and technology education | Smaller optionality that consumes management attention and capital beside the core build. |
Nebius uses three contract shapes. Short-duration capacity serves urgent three-to-six-month demand at premium prices. One-to-three-year agreements form the core. Long-duration investment-grade contracts can help finance new sites. That mix lets the company trade some duration for price while matching large construction projects with longer commitments.
The strategy is to pair scarce power with an integrated software layer. A bare-metal owner competes on GPU access and price. A cloud that improves utilization, scheduling and inference throughput can defend economics as hardware ages. The risk is that those software advantages remain small beside the capital intensity of the physical fleet.
What the Filing Says the Company Is Becoming
Management targets 5GW of contracted power by year-end 2026.
It plans to deploy more than 1GW per year from 2027. Management also reaffirmed FY2026 revenue guidance of $3.0B–$3.4B and year-end ARR guidance of $7B–$9B.
Those goals are much larger than the current business. Nebius had $13.05B of net property and equipment at June 30, $8.04B of cash and $8.55B of current plus non-current debt. Three customers supplied 59% of Q2 revenue—24%, 21% and 14%—and capital spending was concentrated among three suppliers. A delayed cluster, disputed acceptance or supplier bottleneck can move the whole company.
The accounting deserves one explicit caveat. Nebius extended the estimated useful life of servers and networking equipment from four years to five at the start of 2026. That reduced Q2 depreciation by $43.0M and reduced the net loss by $34.1M. Adjusted EBITDA excludes depreciation, so the margin inflection survives. GAAP earnings and asset values look better than they would under the old estimate.
What the Street and Public Conversation Are Saying
The bull case focuses on the filed Q2 contract economics, cloud margin and customer prepayments. The bear case focuses on free cash flow, customer concentration, server depreciation and the capacity-execution gap. Both are grounded in the filing.
The NVIDIA stake has already attracted “circular financing” shorthand. The precise receipt is narrower: NVIDIA invested about $2B; Nebius will use proceeds for AI infrastructure; NVIDIA is a key supplier and platform partner. There is no evidence in the filing that NVIDIA guaranteed Nebius's customer demand or losses. The valid concern is whether vendor-supported capacity earns arm's-length usage from customers whose economics do not depend on the same financing loop.
Fresh social search after the drawdown returned no useful independent analysis. Earlier bullish posts mainly repeated the shareholder letter, while an attributed short thesis emphasized depreciation. Social positioning can explain volatility; primary statements carry the company thesis.
The Conviction Chain
| Link | Evidence today | What would strengthen it | What breaks it |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI customers need specialized compute | Q2 revenue grew 454% YoY and several large contracts carried disclosed pricing. | More independent customers sign at similar or better yield per MW. | Contract yield falls or customer concentration rises as supply expands. |
| Nebius can run the fleet profitably | Cloud adjusted EBITDA margin reached 50%; current run-rate revenue reached $3B. | Margin holds as capacity and customer mix broaden, with improving cash after capex. | Utilization or pricing falls faster than software and operating efficiency improve. |
| The build can be financed responsibly | Customer prepayments fund part of associated capex; NVIDIA added about $2B. | Capital partners fund growth without repeated dilution and liabilities convert cleanly into revenue. | Debt, warrants and equity compound while delivery dates slip. |
| Contracted power can become billable capacity | Management has published large power and deployment targets. | Energized MW, customer acceptance and revenue arrive on schedule quarter after quarter. | Power, permitting, construction or GPU supply makes the target aspirational. |
| The stock offers a tolerable entry | The earnings gap has nearly round-tripped to the prior retest zone. | Price forms a base above the 20-day and reclaims the 50-day on improving volume. | The $216 gap-low area fails and the market rejects the print. |
Conviction stays Medium. Demand and unit economics have receipts; the capital cycle and 5GW delivery plan do not yet have enough history.
Financial Proof
Operating series
| Quarter | Revenue | QoQ | Adjusted EBITDA | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $105.1M | — | -$21.0M | -20.0% |
| Q3 2025 | $146.1M | +39.0% | -$5.2M | -3.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $227.7M | +55.9% | $15.0M | 6.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $399.0M | +75.2% | $129.5M | 32.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $582.3M | +45.9% | $236.2M | 40.6% |
Massive/Polygon returned no current NBIS statement series, and the SEC facts endpoint still resolves legacy Yandex periods in rubles. This table uses exact SEC-filed Nebius releases. It does not fill the gap with provider estimates.
Q2 operating cash flow was $2.25B, helped by customer advances. Purchases of property, equipment and intangibles were $5.66B, leaving approximately -$3.41B of free cash flow on that basis. As of 2026-09-23 at $226.61 and the same 271.9M filed shares, equity value is about $61.6B—roughly 45.5x the last four quarters of revenue and 20.5x Q2's $3.0B annualized run rate, both up slightly from 44.9x/20.3x on September 18 on price alone; no newer quarter has filed. The higher multiple relies on the newest quarter persisting for a full year.
The Stock Setup (as of 2026-09-18 — history; the current setup is at the top of this page)
| Signal | September 18 reading | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $223.54 | Still inside the $220–$235 retest zone; flat on the week (-0.45%) with a +2.55% Friday. |
| RSI (14) | 52.0 | Neutral, roughly unchanged from 51.4. |
| 7D / 30D / 3M | -0.45% / -0.16% / -22.03% | Week and month both flat; the quarter deepened sharply on a window roll past the August earnings gap. |
| SMA20 / SMA50 / SMA200 | +2.8% / +5.5% / +39.1% | Reclaimed the 20-day (from -0.6% below); the 200-day cushion narrowed from +42.4%. |
| One-year return | +137.5% | Decelerated from +151.8% on the same base-effect roll; alpha1y is still strongly positive at +122.49. |
Nebius is up 137.51% over one year and sits 39.1% above its 200-day average — a deep pullback inside an intact trend, and on the desk's extension board it holds the 30-to-40-percent-above-the-200-day tier with the largest one-year alpha in that band. The 25.45% drawdown is the pullback; the trend underneath it is not in question. News pulled 2026-09-18 returned an overview page and a September 17 bullish note citing GPU and CPU price increases, auction pricing and pricing power over hyperscalers — commentary, not an event — so no dated cause is on file for this week's tape. No scheduled event is on file for the window.
What to Watch Next
- Independent customer growth: revenue concentration should fall as the NVIDIA-financed capacity expands.
- Energized versus contracted power: report delivered, billable MW separately from 5GW ambition.
- Cash conversion: customer advances, capex and contract liabilities need to mature into service revenue and free cash flow.
- NVIDIA relationship: track additional capital, hardware purchases and commercial terms without treating strategic ownership as customer proof.
- Depreciation and refresh capex: five-year server lives must remain credible across the next GPU generations.
Refresh History
| Date | Price | What changed |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | — | Industry report established Nebius as a full-stack AI-compute landlord and set a $217 reclaim condition. |
| 2026-08-12 | $259.20 | Q2 revenue, margins and contract economics drove a 34.1% earnings gap. |
| 2026-08-13 | — | Deep dive separated signed economics from the unbuilt 5GW target and set a $220–$235 retest zone. |
| 2026-08-23 | $219.13 | Retest arrived through a 21.1% week; NVIDIA's $2B investment and 9.3% stake added to the funding-quality analysis. |
| 2026-08-28 | $209.18 | Tape update: no new filing this cycle. The $220–$235 retest zone gave way; price now below both the 20- and 50-day. 1Y +190.4%, vs SMA200 +37.8% — still a deep pullback with a large SMA200 cushion, not a broken trend. This week's tape sat alongside NVIDIA's Q2 beat and IREN's FY2026 loss (both in the same neocloud/AI-power cohort), but NBIS's own news cache was last fetched 2026-08-23 — news not pulled for this move. |
| 2026-09-04 | $226.39 | Tape update: no new filing this cycle. The $220–$235 zone has been reclaimed (+8.2% 7D); back above the 20- and 50-day, 200-day cushion widened to +46.3%. 1Y re-accelerated to +248.8%. Multiples restated at the new price (45.4x TTM revenue, 20.5x run-rate, both up from 42.0x/19.0x on price alone). No NBIS-specific news receipt covers this move (cache last fetched 2026-08-23); consistent with a strong week across the neocloud cohort (NVDA, IREN) but not confirmed by an NBIS-specific receipt. |
| 2026-09-11 | $224.55 | Tape update: no new filing this cycle. Essentially flat on the week (-0.81%); 30D deepened to -13.37% (from +3.4%), 3M to -3.36% (from -0.6%); slipped fractionally below the 20-day, 200-day cushion narrowed to +42.4% (from +46.3%). 1Y dropped to +151.8% (from +248.8%) on a base-effect window roll, not a chart change; alpha1y still strongly positive (+135.6). Multiples restated at the new price (45.1x TTM revenue, 20.4x run-rate, both down slightly on price alone). News pulled 2026-09-11: nothing found newer than September 5, no company-specific catalyst. Read alongside Oracle's September 10 print and its neocloud cohort read-through, which names NBIS specifically as the cohort's most comfortable long-trend read (151.77% 1Y, 42.4% above SMA200 — a deep pullback in an intact trend). |
| 2026-09-18 | $223.54 | Tape update: no newly filed period on disk. Flat week (-0.45%) with a +2.55% Friday; 30D -0.16%, 3M deepened to -22.03% on a window roll past the August earnings gap; -25.45% from the high. Reclaimed the 20-day (+2.8%), 50-day +5.5%, 200-day cushion +39.1% (from +42.4%). 1Y +137.51% with alpha1y +122.49 — still the clearest intact long trend in the neocloud lane, and on this week's extension board it carries the largest one-year alpha in the 30-to-40-percent-above-the-200-day tier. Multiples restated at the new price (44.9x TTM revenue, 20.3x run-rate, both down slightly on price alone). News pulled 2026-09-18: an overview page and a September 17 bullish note on GPU/CPU price increases and auction-based pricing — commentary, not an event; nothing dated names this week's tape. Stock-events checked: no NBIS row dated 2026-09-12 to 2026-09-18. |
| 2026-09-23 | $226.61 | Tape update: no newly filed period on disk (newest filed period is the FY2025 20-F; Q2 2026 is folded from SEC-filed 6-K exhibits). 7D +8.23% out of the $220–$235 band, then -4.03% on 09-23 with the lane; 30D +7.44%, 3M -12.73%, -24.43% from the high; +3.2%/+6.2%/+39.3% vs the 20-/50-/200-day. 1Y +110.21% with a one-year excess return of +94.44 points — still the clearest intact long trend in the neocloud lane. Close sits a few cents above the desk trigger ($226.58, September 4 high). Lane on 09-23: nine of ten neoclouds down 3–6%, CoreWeave +0.16%; every member up on the week. Multiples restated at the new price (45.5x TTM revenue, 20.5x run-rate). News pulled 2026-09-22 (quote pages) — the session's cause on file is lane-wide rates news (Bloomberg, CNBC, 2026-09-23); a 2026-09-16 X post relays an October 1 GPU rate increase (attributed). Stock-events checked: no NBIS row dated 2026-09-19 to 2026-09-23. |
| 2026-09-28 | $231.88 | RSI 53.2; +3.9% vs SMA20; 30D +10.8%. The long trend remains intact; Nebius's August 12 SEC-filed Q2 exhibit reports $582.3M revenue (+454% YoY) versus $105.1M a year earlier. This is the current issuer-reported quarter in a filed 6-K exhibit; the generic SEC company-facts wrapper still stops at the annual 20-F. The fresh September 28 hosted receipt lists five quote pages, none a dated issuer event for the session. Its new-contract and buildout thesis still rests on the filed Q2 exhibit; the day's price cause is unassigned. No company event for NBIS was recorded between September 24 and 28. |
Sources
- Nebius Q2 2026 earnings release and shareholder letter.
- Nebius Q2 operating and financial review and unaudited financial statements.
- Nebius 2025 Form 20-F — business and filed risks.
- Nebius SEC filing for NVIDIA's approximately $2B investment and NVIDIA Schedule 13G.
- 2026-08-13-nbis-deep-dive and 2026-08-12-nbis-print-and-the-beat-slam — prior financial reconstruction and earnings-tape analysis.
- NBIS{deep-dive/2026-08-23.json,edgar/6k-financials-2026-08-12.json,news/latest.json}
(news fetched 2026-09-22) and ai-infrastructure — September 23, 2026 tape; 2026-09-18-monster-scan — extension-tier placement (September 18);research/stock-events/` — no NBIS row dated 2026-09-12 to 2026-09-23. - 2026-08-23-social-search-nbis-nebius-ai-cloud-contracts — public-discussion quality check (August).
- GPU rate card (attributed): @ParadisLabs, 2026-09-16 — 2026-09-16-ParadisLabs-nbis-just-raised-on-demand-pricing-for-four-year-68320680; Yahoo Finance, 2026-09-20 (headline only).
- Lane and rates, 2026-09-23: neoclouds; Bloomberg, CoreWeave-tied junk bond, 2026-09-21; Bloomberg, five-year Treasury above 5%; CNBC, October hike priced.
- Desk trigger (September 4 high, $226.58): 2026-09-22-market-brief.
- 2026-09-11-ORCL — Oracle's September 10 print and neocloud-cohort read-through naming NBIS.
2026-09-28 refresh receipts
2026-09-28 settled-close receipt: *, NBIS row dated 2026-09-28; tape values above are bound to the current summary fields.
2026-09-28 financial-source gap: current Massive/SEC direct-quarter cache does not establish an issuer quarter; retained prior dated issuer/report citations and marked the gap above.
2026-09-28 issuer-report check: Nebius's August 12 SEC-filed Q2 exhibit reports $582.3M revenue (+454% YoY) versus $105.1M a year earlier. This is the current issuer-reported quarter in a filed 6-K exhibit; the generic SEC company-facts wrapper still stops at the annual 20-F. This source supplies the 2026-06-30 report period where the machine-readable direct-quarter cache has a gap.
2026-09-28 news receipt check: latest, fetched 2026-09-28; fresh successful receipt; event-quality review summarized above.
2026-09-28 stock-event scan:
research/stock-events/, no NBIS row dated 2026-09-24 through 2026-09-28.2026-09-28 captured-follows scan: tweets has 19 September 24–28 document(s) tagging NBIS.
Retrospective social-search receipt (captured 2026-09-29): 2026-09-29-social-search-nbis-nebius-group-n-v; quality/attention check only, not a September 28 event or price source.