Article published Sep 28, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.
NET Price Structure
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Cloudflare, Inc. is doing well: up 45.2% since June 29 and up 18.1% since August 28, 52.4% above its 200-day average, and up 62.0% over the past year. At the 2026-09-28 settled close, NET $353.99 was +10.6% versus its 20-day average and +18.1% over 30 days. The newest verified quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-08-06); revenue was $696.1M. Against 2025-06-30 revenue of $512.3M, that is +35.9% year over year. GAAP gross margin fell from 75.9% to 71.8% over five quarters. A $150.7M restructuring charge pushed the quarter's GAAP operating loss to $205.7M. Founders and executives sold stock all summer, and the price sits half again above its 200-day. The standing call is 🟡 Wait for a flag; do not chase. Entry $325–$340 · stop $305 · first target $400 · medium conviction.
Quick Snapshot (as of 2026-09-28)
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| The call | 🟡 Wait for a flag; do not chase. Entry $325–$340 · stop $305 · first target $400 · medium conviction |
| What is Cloudflare? | A global edge network in more than 330 cities that sits in front of millions of websites and corporate networks. It sells security, performance and a developer platform (Workers), and increasingly the controls that decide how AI crawlers and agents reach a site. |
| Why look now? | Prior case (2026-09-25): The Q2 2026 10-Q (filed August 6) confirms $696.1M of revenue, the fastest growth of the last six quarters, and remaining performance obligations of $2.73B. Management raised full-year revenue guidance to $2.864–$2.870B. |
| What is the proof? | Latest verified period ended 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-06: revenue $696.1M. Prior case: Six quarters of accelerating growth, from 26.5% to 35.9%. Contracted backlog is growing faster than revenue, and call coverage puts dollar-based net retention at 120%. |
| What is the objection? | GAAP gross margin fell from 75.9% to 71.8% over five quarters. A $150.7M restructuring charge pushed the quarter's GAAP operating loss to $205.7M. Founders and executives sold stock all summer, and the price sits half again above its 200-day. |
| Where it sits in the agent story | Cloudflare works for the websites. It sells sites the tools to identify, block or charge bots and agents. The record holds no direct Muse–Cloudflare link: the captured tests route Muse's traffic through Fastly. Amazon's block on Muse is a demand signal for agent controls. That link is inference. |
| Stock setup | The long trend remains intact; +10.6% versus the 20-day, +52.4% versus the 200-day, RSI 63.6. |
| Sources | Business facts come from the SEC 10-K, the 10-Q, the May 8-K and the Q2 release. The Muse-routing and sentiment evidence comes from X posts by @citrini, @ScroogeCap and @TMTBreakout and a CEO clip shared by @KSimback. Those are attributed and not independently verified. |
Action Matrix (reviewed 2026-09-28; levels are standing conditions)
| Signal | Condition | Level | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟡 Wait | Above the zone, RSI 62.2, 50.7% over the 200-day | — | Right trend, late entry |
| 🟢 Buy | A flag that pulls into the zone and holds the September 18 close ($323.60) | $325–$340 | The base of the September leg, with the stop close by |
| 🟠 Target | First target, then trail | $400 | Round planning level above the high |
| 🔴 Out | A close below the September 11 close ($306.53) | $305 | Loses the September higher low |
| 🔴 Thesis breaks | Q3 print (scheduled October 29): revenue growth back under 30% while GAAP gross margin keeps falling | — | Agent volume arriving without the growth that pays for the margin |
The Story Right Now (as of 2026-09-28)
Cloudflare, Inc. is doing well: up 45.2% since June 29 and up 18.1% since August 28, 52.4% above its 200-day average, and up 62.0% over the past year.
Data as of 2026-09-28 close: NET $353.99, RSI 63.6, strong-up, +10.6% vs SMA20, +52.4% vs SMA200, 7D +0.7%, 30D +18.1%, 1Y +62.0%, -3.7% from the 52-week high.
Business and mechanism. A global edge network in more than 330 cities that sits in front of millions of websites and corporate networks. It sells security, performance and a developer platform (Workers), and increasingly the controls that decide how AI crawlers and agents reach a site.
Prior case (2026-09-25). The Q2 2026 10-Q (filed August 6) confirms $696.1M of revenue, the fastest growth of the last six quarters, and remaining performance obligations of $2.73B. Management raised full-year revenue guidance to $2.864–$2.870B.
Prior proof (2026-09-25). Six quarters of accelerating growth, from 26.5% to 35.9%. Contracted backlog is growing faster than revenue, and call coverage puts dollar-based net retention at 120%.
The countercase. GAAP gross margin fell from 75.9% to 71.8% over five quarters. A $150.7M restructuring charge pushed the quarter's GAAP operating loss to $205.7M. Founders and executives sold stock all summer, and the price sits half again above its 200-day.
Newest statement check. The newest verified quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-08-06); revenue was $696.1M. Against 2025-06-30 revenue of $512.3M, that is +35.9% year over year.
News and attention check. The September 28 hosted pull returned five quote or old-earnings pages, not a new issuer event. The recent filed operating evidence remains the support for the thesis; the session's price cause is unassigned. No company event for NET was recorded between September 24 and 28.
The call: 🟡 Wait for a flag; do not chase. Entry $325–$340 · stop $305 · first target $400 · medium conviction.
Extended analysis
Prior Research (prepared by 2026-09-25; current call and filed-period check above)
Summary
Cloudflare runs one software stack on commodity servers in more than 330 cities and over 125 countries, interconnected with more than 13,000 networks (FY2025 10-K). Customers point their websites, APIs and corporate traffic at that network. Cloudflare then filters attacks, caches and accelerates content, connects offices and remote staff, and runs customer code close to users on its Workers platform. The pitch is consolidation. One vendor's cloud network replaces the separate hardware boxes and point products that enterprises once strung together.
AI agents raise the value of the gate. The CEO said on the Q2 call that more than half of the network's traffic is now non-human (per Investing.com's and Zacks' summaries of the call). A website that once sorted humans from simple bots now has to decide what to do with agents that browse, fill forms and buy things. The 10-K positions Cloudflare as the tool for that decision and as a way for content owners to get paid for machine access.
The company has also reorganized itself around the same idea. In May it announced a cut of about 20% of its workforce to move to what it calls an agentic AI-first operating model. It booked $150.7M of restructuring cost in Q2. Management has said it will accept lower gross margins on agent compute to win the traffic.
The open question is economic, not directional. Growth is accelerating and backlog is growing faster than revenue. What the filings do not yet show is whether agent traffic earns enough on top, through security, controls and paid access, to justify a structurally lower gross margin.
Why This Moment Is Different
- Agent traffic has become the majority of the network's load. "Over half" non-human traffic in Q2 comes from call coverage, not a filed metric. It matches the FY2025 10-K, which added AI crawler and agent controls to Cloudflare's own product definition.
- A large retailer shut out a mainstream consumer agent this month. Amazon blocked Meta's Muse; coverage notes it had earlier sued Perplexity over its Comet agent. Shopify took the opposite side and partnered with Muse on payment technology (MarketWatch, September 21; Semafor, September 22). Websites now face a live decision on whether to admit, challenge or charge agents, which is the product category Cloudflare sells.
- The company repriced its own cost structure for agents. The May 8-K workforce plan, the Q2 restructuring charge and the CFO's September margin remarks describe a deliberate move to lower margin and higher volume.
- The market has traded Cloudflare on agent virality before. In late January and February 2026 the stock jumped on reports that a viral AI agent ("Moltbot") ran on Cloudflare's infrastructure (MarketWatch, February 13: "Cloudflare pops 10% as AI agent wave led by viral Moltbot boosts security demand"). That episode is history; it shows how quickly the stock reacts to an agent headline.
How the Business Makes Money
The FY2025 10-K (filed February 26, 2026) describes four product families on one network:
| Family | What it sells | Agent relevance |
|---|---|---|
| Application services | WAF, Bot Management (with Turnstile), DDoS mitigation, API Shield, CDN, DNS, load balancing | The 10-K names the ability to "identify, block and control access from AI crawlers and AI agents and operators," and calls these services "the foundation of our newly announced efforts to allow content creators to monetize their work by controlling how bots, crawlers, and agents access their work." |
| SASE platform | Zero Trust access, secure web gateway, Magic WAN and network services for corporate traffic | Governs employees' own AI use ("safeguarding the adoption of AI at scale") |
| Developer platform | Workers (serverless compute), Workers AI (models on GPUs across the network), AI Gateway, Vectorize, storage and databases | Where agents and AI apps run; the 10-K says Workers competes with public cloud vendors for storage and compute |
| Consumer | 1.1.1.1 resolver, WARP | Brand and marketing channel |
Go-to-market. Enterprise ("contracted") customers are sold directly by field and inside sales teams and through channel partners. Pro and Business ("pay-as-you-go") customers sign up by credit card. A free tier runs on idle capacity, and the 10-K credits that scale with making Cloudflare an attractive partner for ISPs, which lowers co-location and bandwidth costs. The land-and-expand path is explicit: large customers "often start with a portion of the customer's overall network, security and application needs and expand over time."
Customers. At December 31, 2025 Cloudflare had about 332,000 paying customers in more than 190 countries. Its large-customer count rose from 2,756 (end of 2023) to 3,497 (2024) to 4,298 (2025). No single customer exceeded 10% of revenue in 2023, 2024 or 2025. Full-time staff was 5,156 at the end of 2025, before the May workforce plan.
Top filed risks (FY2025 10-K, Item 1A):
- a history of net losses;
- intense competition from hardware vendors, point-solution vendors and public clouds;
- dependence on winning and expanding large customers;
- network interruptions;
- a dual-class structure that concentrates voting control;
- the ability to cash-settle conversions of its convertible notes.
What the Company Says It Is Becoming
An agent-first company in its own operations.
- The May plan. The May 7 8-K says "the Company expects to reduce its current workforce by approximately 20%." Across that Q1 print the stock fell 21.1%, close before to first close after (the desk's earnings event record).
- The Q2 cost. The Q2 10-Q books a $150.7M restructuring charge in the quarter, $98.6M of restructuring cash paid in the first half, and a $24.3M reserve left at June 30.
- The intern program. On September 15, per TheBuildout's summary of a clip posted by @TheTranscript_, CFO Seifert described a cohort of 1,111 interns hired to rebuild billing and demand generation "AI-first." The same summary says standard junior hiring was halted. TheBuildout's added context, including internal agent usage up 600%, is the aggregator's gloss.
A margin-for-volume trade on agent compute. On September 21, TheBuildout summarized Seifert's view that lower gross margins on agentic compute are acceptable because of the growth and the chance to bundle other services. The aggregator gives Q2 non-GAAP gross margin as 73.1% against 76.3% a year earlier. Those are non-GAAP figures carried by a third party, so this profile's series uses the filed GAAP margins instead.
A toll layer for machine access to the web. The 10-K's crawler- and agent-control language describes this layer. Semafor (July 7) reported that Cloudflare "rolled out what is essentially a bot paywall" for customers to charge AI models for scraping. Robinhood's company page (August 20) describes an "Accountable" designation for AI crawlers. Coverage in June and August reports a behavioral bot-defense product called Precursor (MarketChameleon; Simply Wall St, August 11), and Zacks (September 18) reports new monetization tools for AI transactions. None of these has a disclosed revenue figure.
GAAP profitability by 2028. AlphaSense's summary of the Q2 call says the company is tracking ahead of a 2028 GAAP profitability goal. Per Yahoo Finance's call highlights, network capex was 7% of revenue in Q2, with a full-year expectation of 14–15%. First-half property purchases were $115.2M (10-Q). Reaching the full-year expectation would therefore need a much heavier second half. That last step is inference from management's stated range.
Where Cloudflare Sits in the Agent Story
Read as one story (Meta's Muse agent, Amazon's block, and the compute and power bottleneck behind agent-scale AI), the record supports these links for Cloudflare:
| Link | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Muse's browsing traffic crosses Cloudflare's network | None in the corpus. @citrini's 738 controlled tests (September 23) point to Fastly; @ScroogeCap calls Fastly "dumb pipe egress" that Meta rents | Not found — the captured evidence names Fastly, not Cloudflare |
| Cloudflare sells sites the tools to detect, block or charge agents | FY2025 10-K product language; Semafor's "bot paywall" (July 7); Robinhood's "Accountable" crawler designation (August 20) | Filed / reported |
| Amazon's block of Muse is demand for agent controls | Amazon's stated reasons, per Bloomberg and GeekWire (September 21), include an agent that does not identify itself; identifying agents is what the 10-K says Cloudflare's tools do | Inference. Nothing on record shows Amazon uses Cloudflare, or that any Cloudflare customer has blocked Muse |
| Sites that welcome agents need identified, paying agents | Shopify partnered with Muse on payment technology (MarketWatch, September 21); Zacks reports Cloudflare monetization tools for AI transactions (September 18) | Inference — the other half of the same market |
| Agent compute is a cost, not only revenue | CFO margin remarks (September 21); GAAP gross margin 75.9% → 71.8% over five quarters; CEO's "40x the CPUs" clip | Filed series + attributed remarks. Cloudflare buys compute and colocation power; it does not supply them |
| Amazon as competitor | The 10-K names public cloud vendors as competitors for storage and compute, without naming them | Filed, generic |
| Bloom Energy (on-site data-center power) | No relationship in the corpus | No direct relationship found |
| Palantir (enterprise agents) | No relationship in the corpus | No direct relationship found |
One attributed caveat matters for sizing. @TMTBreakout (September 23), writing about Fastly, argues that agent browsing is "heavy on requests and light on bytes." It quotes Fastly's CEO: "agents aren't watching videos yet." If that is right, bandwidth-billed delivery gains little from agents. Cloudflare's leverage would come from security, controls, paid access and Workers compute rather than bytes, which fits the CFO's bundling argument. This reading is inference.
What the Street and Public Conversation Say
- The print read. Cloudflare beat on non-GAAP EPS, $0.29 against a $0.27 consensus (the desk's earnings calendar), and on Q2 2026 revenue, $696.1M against $664.7M (MarketBeat). The stock moved +2.5% across the print, close before to first close after (the desk's event record). A MarketBeat alert the same day said shares fell 3.3% as about $46M of CEO stock sales and valuation weighed. That alert covers a different window, and the two accounts are not reconciled here.
- Sell-side and aggregators. Zacks (September 15) called the risk-reward balanced, with valuation concerns. Zacks (September 18) cited more than 50% non-human traffic and nearly 2 million developers added to Workers, and said the stock trades at a significant premium. TipRanks and AlphaSense summaries put dollar-based net retention at 120%. Guggenheim's Sell rating and $117 target (February 3, 2026) is history from before the stock's run.
- X. Citrini's "Agentic Reality" piece (September 22) revisits AI's winners and losers as agents go mainstream; the capture holds only its headline. The next day's "all green on a red day" post was an intraday read (see above). Connor Bates (September 9) listed Cloudflare among "nice sympathy moves" with Akamai, Fastly and DigitalOcean, without naming a cause.
- Social sweep (September 25). Thin. The two relevant results are YouTube videos with no transcripts: Chip Stock Investor, "Why We're Considering Trimming Cloudflare," and Parkev Tatevosian, "Cloudflare Stock is Soaring as Agentic AI Proliferates." X returned an error in that sweep, and the Hacker News hits are years old. This counts as positioning color, not evidence.
Insider activity. Form 4 filings on the desk's filing watch show steady selling and no buys:
- President and co-chair Michelle Zatlyn sold about 99,000 shares in each of three filings, with transaction dates of July 13, August 19 and September 3, roughly $27–28M each.
- CEO Matthew Prince sold in filings with transaction dates of July 1 and August 3–4.
- CFO Thomas Seifert sold 55,000 shares on August 4 and 10,000 on September 17.
- Director Carl Ledbetter sold 5,000 shares on September 14 and 5,000 on September 22.
The filings pair share conversions or option exercises with sales. The captured Form 4 records do not state whether the sales run under 10b5-1 plans. The desk's September 25 insider scan labels the name "selling against a strong trend."
The Conviction Chain
| Claim | Evidence | What confirms it | What breaks it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Agent traffic is lifting growth | Revenue growth 26.5% → 35.9% over six filed quarters; the CEO's "over half non-human" (call coverage) | Q3 revenue at or above the $736–$737M guide with growth in the mid-30s | Growth back under 30% |
| The margin give-up buys durable growth | GAAP gross margin 75.9% → 71.8%; CFO remarks | Margin steadies near its Q2 level while growth holds | Margin keeps falling and growth stalls: volume without price |
| Customers keep expanding | Net retention 120% (call coverage); backlog $2.73B vs $1.98B a year earlier; 4,298 large customers at end-2025 | Retention at or above 120%; backlog still outgrowing revenue | Retention below 115% |
| Agent controls are a paid product | 10-K language; Semafor, Robinhood and Precursor coverage | Any disclosed revenue, customer count or pricing for crawler and agent controls | Two more prints with no disclosure while the story carries the multiple |
| The reorganization lowers the cost base | 20% workforce plan; excluding the $150.7M charge, Q2 GAAP operating margin was -7.9% vs -13.1% a year earlier (script arithmetic on 10-Q figures, not a company metric) | Operating margin keeps improving without new charges | New charges, or operating expense growth accelerating again |
| The stock setup | 50.7% above the 200-day; intact trend | A flag holds the September 18 close | A close below the September 11 close |
Weakest link: the fourth. The case that agent traffic is a paid, high-value product for Cloudflare rests on the 10-K's product language and management's words. No filed figure yet separates it. The margin trade is visible in the numbers; its payoff is not.
Financial Proof
Quarterly series, GAAP, from the SEC 10-Q and 10-K filings (period ends shown). Growth rates and margins were computed by script from the filed figures.
| Quarter (period end) | Revenue | YoY | QoQ | GAAP gross margin | GAAP operating income | GAAP op. margin | Net income | Diluted EPS | Operating cash flow | Capex (PP&E) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 (2025-03-31) | $479.1M | +26.5% | +4.2% | 75.9% | -$53.2M | -11.1% | -$38.5M | -0.11 | $145.8M | $85.9M | SEC 10-Q |
| Q2 2025 (2025-06-30) | $512.3M | +27.8% | +6.9% | 74.9% | -$67.3M | -13.1% | -$50.4M | -0.15 | $99.8M | $59.9M | SEC 10-Q |
| Q3 2025 (2025-09-30) | $562.0M | +30.7% | +9.7% | 74.0% | -$37.5M | -6.7% | -$1.3M | 0.00 | $167.1M | $84.6M | SEC 10-Q |
| Q4 2025 (2025-12-31) | $614.5M | +33.6% | +9.3% | 73.6% | -$49.2M | -8.0% | -$12.1M | -0.03* | $190.4M | $85.2M | SEC 10-K |
| Q1 2026 (2026-03-31) | $639.8M | +33.5% | +4.1% | 71.2% | -$62.0M | -9.7% | -$22.9M | -0.07 | $158.3M | $65.2M | SEC 10-Q |
| Q2 2026 (2026-06-30) | $696.1M | +35.9% | +8.8% | 71.8% | -$205.7M | -29.6% | -$170.0M | -0.48 | $117.6M | $50.0M | SEC 10-Q |
*Q4 figures are derived: the 10-K annual total less the nine-month 10-Q totals.
What the series shows:
- Growth accelerated for six quarters. The rise from 26.5% to 35.9% is the core of the case. Trailing-twelve-month revenue growth was 33.5% at June 30 (cross-checked against the filings).
- Gross margin is the cost of that growth. GAAP gross margin fell four quarters running before a small uptick in Q2. That lines up with the CFO's agent-compute remarks. The filings do not break margin out by traffic type.
- Q2's GAAP loss is mostly the restructuring charge. The $150.7M charge sits inside the $205.7M operating loss. Stock-based compensation was $159.9M in the quarter, against $122.4M a year earlier (10-Q).
- The quarter's cash flow absorbed restructuring payments. Operating cash flow of $117.6M came after $98.6M of restructuring cash paid over the first half. Current deferred revenue rose to $812.2M from $755.1M at March 31, a working-capital tailwind from billing ahead of service.
- Full year. FY2025 operating cash flow was $603.1M and capex $315.6M, for free cash flow of $287.5M (SEC 10-K; free cash flow here is operating cash flow less capex).
- Backlog outgrew revenue. Remaining performance obligations reached $2.73B at June 30, up from $1.98B a year earlier (10-Q).
- Balance sheet at June 30 (10-Q). Cash was $1.66B, and current available-for-sale securities were $2.50B. Convertible notes carried $1.29B in current liabilities and $1.98B noncurrent. An 8-K filed August 13 (event dated August 10) reports a material agreement, a new direct financial obligation and an unregistered equity issuance (items 1.01, 2.03 and 3.02). Its terms are not characterized here.
- Guidance (per the Q2 release as carried by Yahoo Finance, MarketBeat and Nasdaq). Q3 revenue $736–$737M with non-GAAP EPS of $0.34. Full-year 2026 revenue $2.864–$2.870B, non-GAAP operating income $443–$445M and non-GAAP EPS $1.25–$1.26. These are management targets, not filed results; the profit lines are non-GAAP.
- Valuation. No multiple is quoted: the available market-cap figures disagree on share basis and date, so the stretch is expressed through the tape (distance above the 200-day) rather than a price-to-sales ratio.
Stock Setup and What to Watch
Cloudflare's latest leg began at the September 4 close of $278.92. It made a higher low at the September 11 close of $306.53, closed September 18 at $323.60 and September 24 at $358.82, and fell back to $349.02 on September 25. The desk's September 25 summaries put the 20-day average at $317.37, the 50-day at $299.73 and the 200-day at $231.59. The zone sits above a rising 20-day, and the stop sits under the September higher low, a structural level rather than a moving average.
What to watch, in order:
- The flag. A shallow drift into $325–$340 that holds the September 18 close is the entry. A close under $305 means the leg has failed.
- The third-quarter report, scheduled October 29 after the close. Revenue against the $736–$737M guide, the GAAP gross margin, and whether net retention holds 120%.
- Any disclosure on agent controls. A revenue figure, customer count or pricing for crawler and agent controls would turn the weakest link into evidence.
- More sites choosing sides on agents. Amazon blocked Muse and Shopify welcomed it. Watch whether any site that blocks or charges agents names Cloudflare as its tool.
- The August 13 8-K. Its item numbers point to a financing; if so, its terms matter for dilution and for the convertible-notes risk the 10-K flags.
Cross-references
- Tracked on the desk's AI, cybersecurity, web-and-cloud, cloud-ETF-holdings, insider, tech-insider-buys and focus watchlists. The September 25 Momentum Board places it in the 40-to-60-percent-above-the-200-day tier; it is not on the September 25 washout list.
- Companion reads in the same agent story: the Amazon, Bloom Energy and Palantir profiles (September 23) and the Meta deep dive (September 15, refreshed September 22). Fastly, the network the Muse tests point to, has no tracked profile.
- No active desk campaign names Cloudflare.
Price Data (live — latest settled close)
A live table: every cell shows the latest settled close, named in the first row. Dated readings live in the Research Log.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| As of (settled close) | 2026-10-16 |
| Price ($) | 296.3 |
| RSI (14) | 35.9 |
| 20-day average ($) | 345.71 |
| vs 20-day (%) | -14.3 |
| 50-day average ($) | 319.92 |
| vs 50-day (%) | -7.4 |
| 200-day average ($) | 242.25 |
| vs 200-day (%) | 22.3 |
| 1D (%) | -6.33 |
| 7D (%) | -17.91 |
| 30D (%) | -8.73 |
| 3M (%) | 6.71 |
| 1Y (%) | 40.16 |
| 1Y vs benchmark (points) | 24.63 |
| From 52-week high (%) | -19.99 |
Financial Proof
Filed-period check (as of 2026-09-28): The newest verified quarter ended 2026-06-30 and was filed 2026-08-06. Revenue was $696.1M; GAAP net income was −$170.0M; diluted EPS was -0.48. Source: Massive income statements and the filing. Dated historical tables below retain their own period basis.
The recent filed revenue series shows the direction of the business; missing cells are left unavailable.
| Period end | Revenue | YoY | Operating income | GAAP net income | Filing date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-30 | $430.1M | — | −$30.8M | −$15.3M | 2024-11-07 |
| 2025-03-31 | $479.1M | — | −$53.2M | −$38.5M | 2025-05-08 |
| 2025-06-30 | $512.3M | — | −$67.3M | −$50.4M | 2025-07-31 |
| 2025-09-30 | $562.0M | +30.7% | −$37.5M | −$1.3M | 2025-10-30 |
| 2026-03-31 | $639.8M | +33.5% | −$62.0M | −$22.9M | 2026-05-08 |
| 2026-06-30 | $696.1M | +35.9% | −$205.7M | −$170.0M | 2026-08-06 |
Research Log
| Date | Note |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | NET $241.82, RSI 63.7, strong-up; +17.98% 30D, +33.59% 3M. April capitulation fully reversed. Trail stop up. |
| 2026-06-16 | NET $230.97, RSI 50.4, neutral; +14.48% 30D. Healthy consolidation after strong run. SMA20 minor pause. |
| 2026-06-26 | NET $237.24, RSI 54.6, strong-up; +3.44% 7D, +13.39% 30D, +16.86% 3M. Week's outperformer — bucked the broad rotation flush. Full ascending MA stack intact. RSI recovered from 50.4 to 54.6. From 52wkHi tightened from -16.56% to -14.3%. Bull target $260 is -8.7% away. Trail stop to SMA50 ($222). No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-11 | NET $268.40, RSI 64.8, strong-up/uptrend; 7D +8.66%, 30D +18.01%, 3M +45.85%; -4.19% from 52wkHi (near a new high); +11.5% above SMA20. Base target ($260) exceeded; bull target ($285+) close. No divergence — thesis confirming strongly. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-17 | NET $277.66, RSI 65.2, strong-up/uptrend; 7D +3.45%, 30D +23.92%, 3M +35.57%; -4.58% from 52wkHi; +10.2% above SMA20. No divergence — thesis confirming strongly. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-25 | NET $262.15, RSI 53.4, strong-up/uptrend; 7D -5.59%, 30D +17.3%, 3M +26.6%; -9.86% from 52wkHi; essentially at SMA20 (-0.4%). First real pullback after the run; no thesis divergence. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-28 | NET $264.10, RSI 54.2, strong-up/uptrend; 7D -3.01%, 30D +8.34%, 3M +24.59%; -9.24% from 52wkHi; essentially at SMA20 (-0.5%). Pullback has stabilized, no thesis divergence. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-31 | NET $278.98, RSI 61.3, strong-up; 7D +6.42%; 30D +13.26%; 3M +28.27%; -5.04% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-08 | NET $300.27, RSI 64.5, strong-up; 7D +7.63%; 30D +9.83%; 3M +53.10%; -3.95% from 52wk high. Earnings-driven: Q2 beat (EPS $0.29 vs $0.27) reported 08-06, ~+2.5% across the print per the desk's event record. No filed quarter yet. |
| 2026-08-14 | NET $315.78, RSI 64.3, strong-up; 7D +5.17%; 30D +15.65%; 3M +59.84%; -0.42% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-22 | NET $293.14, RSI 52.2, strong-up; 7D -7.17%; 30D +8.98%; 3M +35.61%; -11.76% from 52wk high. 1Y +52.07%, vs SMA200 +33.70%. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-28 | NET $299.84, RSI 54.3, strong-up; 7D +2.28%; 30D +10.90%; 3M +23.99%; -9.75% from 52wk high. 1Y +40.49%, vs SMA200 +35.9%. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-09-04 | NET $278.92, RSI 46.7, weak-down; 7D -6.95%; 30D -4.79%; 3M +11.52%; -16.04% from 52wk high. 1Y +32.83%, vs SMA200 +25.40%. News pulled 2026-09-04; coverage found (a reiterated Buy rating, an ARK-trade note) is not causal for the decline. No company-specific catalyst identified. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-09-11 | NET $306.53, RSI 55.5, strong-up (upgraded from weak-down); 7D +9.90%, the sharpest weekly gain in this file's recent history; 30D -1.58%; 3M +34.16%; -7.73% from 52wk high (narrowed sharply). 1Y +36.45%, vs SMA200 +36.50%. Stock-events checked, none on file (next print not until Oct 29). News pulled 2026-09-11; no single new catalyst named. No new fundamentals filed since 09-04. |
| 2026-09-18 | NET $323.60, RSI 57.9, strong-up; 1D -3.10%; 7D +5.57%; 30D +10.87%; 3M +44.43%; -4.26% from 52wk high. 1Y +44.74% with alpha1y +29.73 and price +42.0% above the 200-day — an intact long uptrend, now in the desk's 40-to-60-percent-above-the-200-day extension tier. The prior cycle's held-position row and per-cycle P&L clauses were removed from this profile: recommendation surfaces are book-blind. News pulled 2026-09-18: coverage through September 15 on a fresh mid-September 52-week high and the Q2 2026 results (non-GAAP EPS $0.29 versus $0.27 consensus, revenue +36% YoY to $696.1M, raised full-year guidance); nothing dated names Friday's 3.10% decline. Stock-events checked: no NET row dated 2026-09-12 to 2026-09-18. No newly filed period on disk — the newest filed period ends 2025-12-31. |
| 2026-09-23 | NET $352.33, RSI 65.4, strong-up; 1D -0.19%; 7D +8.53%; 30D +25.68%; 3M +57.66%; -3.27% from 52wk high. 1Y +57.81% with a one-year excess return of +42.04 points and price +53.1% above the 200-day — an intact, very extended uptrend at its high. Top rewritten with a flag-entry call keyed to the 2026-09-18 close ($323.60); the historical $210–$230 zone and $237 stop were retired. News pulled 2026-09-22: third-party attribution of the 09-21 gain to falling yields and easing US–China tensions (INDmoney) and to software/AI risk appetite (MarketBeat); a NET Form 4 filed 2026-09-21. Stock-events checked: no NET row dated 2026-09-19 to 2026-09-23. Correction: the 09-18 row's filing-cache claim was wrong — the newest filed period on disk ends 2026-03-31 (10-Q filed 2026-05-08), not 2025-12-31; the Q2 quarter reported in August is not yet in the cache. |
| 2026-09-25 | NET $349.02, RSI 62.2, strong-up; 1D -2.73%; 7D +7.86%; 30D +22.51%; 3M +47.12%; -5.01% from 52wk high. 1Y +59.95%, one-year excess return +42.74 points, price +50.7% above the 200-day: intact and extended. Top rewritten at full deep-dive depth. The Q2 2026 10-Q (filed 2026-08-06) is now folded in: $150.7M restructuring charge, GAAP gross margin 71.8% vs 74.9%, remaining performance obligations $2.73B. Added: the CFO's agent-margin remarks (09-21), the CEO's 40x-CPU clip (09-23), and the Muse/Amazon/Fastly evidence (the Muse tests point to Fastly; the Cloudflare link is site-side agent controls, labeled inference). The 09-23 "all green on a red day" post was intraday; NET closed -0.19% that day. Call kept: entry $325–$340, target $400. The stop moved from $300 to $305 to match the Out level under the 09-11 close. The 09-24 gain (+1.84%) and the 09-25 decline carry no sourced cause: news pulled 2026-09-25 (newest item 2026-09-19); stock-events and 09-24/09-25 captures checked. |
| 2026-09-28 | NET $353.99, RSI 63.6, +10.6% vs SMA20, 30D +18.1%. The long trend remains intact; The newest verified quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-08-06); revenue was $696.1M. Against 2025-06-30 revenue of $512.3M, that is +35.9% year over year. The September 28 hosted pull returned five quote or old-earnings pages, not a new issuer event. The recent filed operating evidence remains the support for the thesis; the session's price cause is unassigned. No company event for NET was recorded between September 24 and 28. |
Sources
- Momentum Board tier: 2026-09-25-monster-scan; washout list: 2026-09-25-washout-scan; group pullback: 2026-09-25-cybersec; insider label: 2026-09-25-insider-scan.
- SEC filings: FY2025 10-K (filed 2026-02-26) — business and risk-factor text via 10k-business,
10k-risk_factors.json; 8-K, May 7, 2026 (workforce plan) — guidance-2026-05-07; Q2 2026 10-Q (filed 2026-08-06); Q2 results 8-K (2026-08-06); 8-K filed 2026-08-13, items 1.01/2.03/3.02 (not read). - Financial series: income-statements,
cash-flow-statements.json,balance-sheets.json; SEC XBRL facts company-facts (restructuring charges, restructuring payments, RPO, deferred revenue, capex, stock compensation, convertible notes); reconciled TTM revenue growth, FY2025 operating cash flow, capex and free cash flow from the desk's fundamentals reconciliation (2026-09-25). Growth rates, margins, quarterly capex and the ex-charge operating margin were computed by script from those filed figures. - Q2 release and call coverage (news receipt latest, fetched 2026-09-25, newest dated item 2026-09-19; archive articles): Business Wire, Q2 2026 results; Yahoo Finance, Q2 call highlights; MarketBeat, Q3 guidance; MarketBeat, Q2 report; Nasdaq earnings page; AlphaSense Q2 summary; TipRanks Q2 summary; Investing.com call transcript; 24/7 Wall St. Q2 card; Zacks, agentic AI and revenue growth (2026-09-18); Zacks research reports (2026-09-15); Robinhood company page (AI crawler "Accountable" designation); MarketChameleon press releases (Precursor); MarketWatch, "Cloudflare pops 10% as AI agent wave led by viral Moltbot boosts security demand" (2026-02-13, headline via the news archive; the archived link is a quote page); Globe and Mail, Guggenheim Sell (2026-02-03).
- Earnings records: 2026-05-07-net-earnings (−21.1% across the Q1 print),
2026-08-06-net-earnings.md(+2.5%, EPS $0.29 vs $0.27),2026-10-29-net-earnings.md(scheduled). No NET row dated 2026-09-24 or 2026-09-25. - Insider filings: filing-watch (Form 4 rows and the August 4–11 cluster); captures 2026-09-08-net-4-0001786951-26-000023,
2026-09-15-net-4-0001366574-26-000022.md,2026-09-21-net-4-0001473289-26-000029.md,2026-09-23-net-4-0001366574-26-000024.md; e.g. Zatlyn Form 4 (2026-09-08), Seifert Form 4 (2026-09-21), Ledbetter Form 4 (2026-09-23). - CFO and CEO remarks (attributed): 2026-09-15-thebuildout-cloudflare-cfo-thomas-seifert-details-company-wide-ai-first--849b7184 (source post); 2026-09-21-thebuildout-cloudflare-cfo-thomas-seifert-says-lower-gross-margins-on-ag-a9da570b (source post, second post); full items in 2026-09-18-intel,
2026-09-24-intel.json; CEO clip 2026-09-23-KSimback-i-had-to-listen-to-this-clip-from-cloudflare-ceo-52164687 (@KSimback). - Muse, Amazon and the agent-traffic evidence: @citrini, "all green on a red day" (2026-09-23) and its quoted "Agentic Reality" post — 2026-09-23-citrini-net-fsly-meta-all-green-on-a-red-day-77153036; @citrini, Muse–Fastly tests — 2026-09-23-citrini-interesting-fsly-finding-from-testing-meta-muse--25739193; @ScroogeCap and @TMTBreakout via 2026-09-23-social-search-fsly; @ConnorJBates_ (2026-09-09); Bloomberg, Amazon blocks Meta's Muse (2026-09-21); GeekWire; Forbes (2026-09-23); CNBC (2026-09-23); MarketWatch (2026-09-21); Semafor, retailers pick sides (2026-09-22); Semafor, Cloudflare puts prices on AI scraping (2026-07-07). Bloomberg, GeekWire and Forbes wording is from the main thread's 2026-09-25 web-search summaries, not a page read.
- Social sweep: 2026-09-25-social-search-net-cloudflare (Chip Stock Investor, Parkev Tatevosian).
- Call-level discipline: CALL-LESSONS (structural stops, no entries on strength with distant stops).
2026-09-28 refresh receipts
2026-09-28 settled-close receipt: *, NET row dated 2026-09-28; tape values above are bound to the current summary fields.
2026-09-28 financial-period check: income-statements and key-financials; newest verified 2026-06-30 period, filed 2026-08-06 (Massive statement / SEC period cross-check).
2026-09-28 news receipt check: latest, fetched 2026-09-28; fresh successful receipt; event-quality review summarized above.
2026-09-28 stock-event scan:
research/stock-events/, no NET row dated 2026-09-24 through 2026-09-28.2026-09-28 captured-follows scan: tweets has 0 September 24–28 document(s) tagging NET.
Retrospective social-search receipt (captured 2026-09-29): 2026-09-29-social-search-net; quality/attention check only, not a September 28 event or price source.