Article published Sep 28, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.
NTR Price Structure
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Nutrien is pulling back inside a long uptrend: down 2.1% since August 28, though still up 17.6% since June 29 and 2.6% above its 200-day average. At the 2026-09-28 settled close, NTR $71.98 was -6.8% versus its 20-day average and -2.1% over 30 days. Nutrien's August Q2 issuer release, distributed through Business Wire reports $10.812B sales versus $10.438B a year earlier (+3.6%), $1.22B net earnings, $2.61 adjusted EPS and raised potash volume guidance to 14.2–14.8 million tonnes. Adjusted EPS is a management non-GAAP measure; it must not be called GAAP EPS. Two straight earnings misses and sector commentary about farmers cutting fertiliser use. The standing call is 🟡 Wait for the pullback to turn. Entry $75–$78 on a close back above the September 18 close ($77.09) · stop $69 · first target $85 · medium conviction.
Quick Snapshot (as of 2026-09-28)
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| The call | 🟡 Wait for the pullback to turn. Entry $75–$78 on a close back above the September 18 close ($77.09) · stop $69 · first target $85 · medium conviction |
| What is Nutrien? | A leading potash producer, plus nitrogen and phosphate operations and a North American farm-retail network. |
| Why look now? | Prior case (2026-09-23): A steady-climber uptrend is taking its first real pullback since the June low. |
| What is the proof? | Q2 2026 revenue of $10.81B beat, while adjusted EPS of $2.61 missed a $2.72 estimate — the second straight miss — on a sharp drop in phosphate profit; potash was the strong segment (24/7 Wall St., per the September 22 news pull). |
| What is the objection? | Two straight earnings misses and sector commentary about farmers cutting fertiliser use. |
| Stock setup | The long trend remains intact; -6.8% versus the 20-day, +2.6% versus the 200-day, RSI 40.5. |
Action Matrix (reviewed 2026-09-28; levels are standing conditions)
| Signal | Condition | Level | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟡 Wait | Below the 20-day after a heavy-volume drop | — | The cause of the September 21 selling is unknown |
| 🟢 Buy | A close back above the September 18 close | $75–$78 | Reclaiming last week's close would make the drop a shakeout |
| 🟠 Target | First target | $85 | The prior 52-week high region |
| 🔴 Out | A close below the 200-day | 200-day, $69.97 on 2026-09-23 | Would put the long trend under test |
| 🔴 Thesis breaks | A third straight earnings miss with potash weakening | — | Potash is the leg holding the thesis up |
The Story Right Now (as of 2026-09-28)
Nutrien is pulling back inside a long uptrend: down 2.1% since August 28, though still up 17.6% since June 29 and 2.6% above its 200-day average.
Data as of 2026-09-28 close: NTR $71.98, RSI 40.5, weak-down, -6.8% vs SMA20, +2.6% vs SMA200, 7D -3.4%, 30D -2.1%, 1Y +24.6%, -15.7% from the 52-week high.
Business and mechanism. A leading potash producer, plus nitrogen and phosphate operations and a North American farm-retail network.
Prior case (2026-09-23). A steady-climber uptrend is taking its first real pullback since the June low.
Prior proof (2026-09-23). Nutrien's Q2 issuer release gives $10.812B sales (+3.6% YoY), $1.22B GAAP net earnings, $2.61 adjusted EPS and raised potash volume guidance.
The countercase. Two straight earnings misses and sector commentary about farmers cutting fertiliser use.
Newest statement check. Nutrien's August Q2 issuer release, distributed through Business Wire reports $10.812B sales versus $10.438B a year earlier (+3.6%), $1.22B net earnings, $2.61 adjusted EPS and raised potash volume guidance to 14.2–14.8 million tonnes. Adjusted EPS is a management non-GAAP measure; it must not be called GAAP EPS.
News and attention check. The September 28 hosted pull returned five quote pages, including two pages merely stamped with today's date; none reports a new issuer event. The Q2 issuer release remains the business proof and the session's move is unassigned. No company event for NTR was recorded between September 24 and 28.
The call: 🟡 Wait for the pullback to turn. Entry $75–$78 on a close back above the September 18 close ($77.09) · stop $69 · first target $85 · medium conviction.
Extended analysis
Price Data (live — latest settled close)
A live table: every cell shows the latest settled close, named in the first row. Dated readings live in the Research Log.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| As of (settled close) | 2026-10-16 |
| Price ($) | 71.26 |
| RSI (14) | 48.6 |
| 20-day average ($) | 71.08 |
| vs 20-day (%) | 0.2 |
| 50-day average ($) | 72.96 |
| vs 50-day (%) | -2.3 |
| 200-day average ($) | 70.71 |
| vs 200-day (%) | 0.8 |
| 1D (%) | 2.41 |
| 7D (%) | 5.6 |
| 30D (%) | -8.26 |
| 3M (%) | 5.92 |
| 1Y (%) | 26.3 |
| 1Y vs benchmark (points) | 10.77 |
| From 52-week high (%) | -16.52 |
Research Log
| Date | Note |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | NTR $68.55, RSI 39.3, weak-down; -9.8% 30D. Entry zone ($70-74) overhead resistance. Potash thesis intact; tape distribution. |
| 2026-06-16 | NTR $65.48, RSI 37.1; -8.57% 30D, -17.09% 3M. Approaching oversold. Stop at $59 now only -10% away. |
| 2026-06-26 | NTR $60.98, RSI 28.8, down; -2.1% 7D, -11.28% 30D, -18.81% 3M. First oversold read (RSI < 30) in profile history. All three MAs overhead ($65-69 zone). VWAP $65.48 also overhead. Stop at $59 is now 3.3% away — test approaching. Oversold is a mechanical condition, not a buy signal in persistent distribution. Potash/food-security thesis structurally intact; tape has not confirmed it for 3 months. Wait for RSI > 35 and SMA20 reclaim. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-11 | NTR $65.43, RSI 51.7, weak-down/pullback; 7D +1.21%, 30D +0.71%, 3M -11.23%; -23.35% from 52wkHi; +3.0% above SMA20 ($63.53), ~at SMA200. Stop at $59 held and is now receding; both stated recovery triggers (RSI>35, SMA20 reclaim) fired convincingly. No divergence — thesis confirming. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-17 | NTR $67.28, RSI 55.9, strong-up/pullback; 7D +2.83%, 30D +8.01%, 3M -4.61%; -21.18% from 52wkHi; +4.8%/+0.9%/+2.4% above SMA20/SMA50/SMA200 — all three cleared. No divergence — thesis confirming. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-25 | NTR $68.10, RSI 57.5, strong-up/pullback; 7D +1.22%, 30D +13.82%, 3M -3.99%; -19.7% from 52wkHi; +3.4%/+2.5%/+3.3% above SMA20/SMA50/SMA200 — all three still cleared. No divergence — thesis confirming. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-28 | NTR $69.46, RSI 60.7, strong-up/pullback; 7D +3.92%, 30D +14.56%, 3M -5.45%; -18.63% from 52wkHi; +4.8%/+4.6%/+5.3% above SMA20/SMA50/SMA200 — all three gaps widened. No divergence — thesis confirming. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-31 | NTR $70.72, RSI 64.4, strong-up; 7D +3.18%; 30D +12.34%; 3M -6.11%; -17.15% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-08 | NTR $64.42, RSI 40.5, strong-down; 7D -6.73%; 30D -3.51%; 3M -4.87%; -21.60% from 52wk high. Earnings-driven: Q2 miss (EPS $2.61 vs $2.72) reported 08-05; muted -0.2% print reaction, drift continuing lower since. No filed quarter yet. |
| 2026-08-14 | NTR $68.24, RSI 54.3, up; 7D +5.93%; 30D -0.13%; 3M -3.78%; -20.96% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-22 | NTR $75.27, RSI 73.0, up; 7D +10.37%; 30D +9.88%; 3M +7.33%; -11.82% from 52wk high. 1Y +30.65%, vs SMA200 +11.00%. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-28 | NTR $73.51, RSI 62.9, up; 7D -2.32%; 30D +4.14%; 3M +7.24%; -13.88% from 52wk high. 1Y +24.97%, vs SMA200 +7.7%. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-09-04 | NTR $79.47, RSI 71.1, strong-up; 7D +8.09%; 30D +18.75%; 3M +18.26%; -6.90% from 52wk high. 1Y +39.47%, vs SMA200 +15.60%. News checked 2026-09-04; nothing found beyond the already-known 08-05/08-06 Q2 print. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-09-11 | NTR $78.45, RSI 63.3, strong-up; 7D -1.28%; 30D +16.78%; 3M +16.02%; -8.10% from 52wk high. 1Y +37.34%, vs SMA200 +13.30% — still a deep pullback in an intact trend. Stock-events checked, none new. News pulled 2026-09-11; nothing beyond the already-known Q2 print. No new fundamentals filed since 09-04. |
| 2026-09-18 | NTR $77.09, RSI 54.7, strong-up; 1D -2.32%; 7D -1.73%; 30D +9.35%; 3M +22.64%; -9.69% from 52wk high. 1Y +37.10% with alpha1y +22.08 and price +10.5% above the 200-day — an intact long uptrend consolidating on its 20-day, and the desk's extension board places the name among the steady climbers rather than any extended tier. News pulled 2026-09-18: Q2 2026 coverage (revenue $10.81B, a 3.9% beat; adjusted EPS $2.61 against a $2.72 estimate, a second straight miss, on a 75% drop in phosphate profit from sulphur costs) plus sector commentary on farmers cutting fertiliser use; none dated inside this week, so nothing names Friday's decline. Stock-events checked: no NTR row dated 2026-09-12 to 2026-09-18. No newly filed period on disk — the newest filed period ends 2025-12-31, so the Q2 numbers are still news-only here. |
| 2026-09-23 | NTR $75.13, RSI 49.0, strong-up; 1D -0.40%; 7D -3.28%; 30D +1.13%; 3M +24.45%; -11.98% from 52wk high. 1Y +33.28% with a one-year excess return of +17.51 points; price +7.4% above the 200-day and +4.2% above the 50-day — a pullback inside an intact trend, now below the 20-day. The 2026-09-21 brief flagged a -3.3% day on 2.2x volume; news pulled 2026-09-22 names no cause for it (cause unknown). Top rewritten with a re-entry call keyed to the 2026-09-18 close ($77.09); the old 'Stop-loss proximity' snapshot row was retired. Stock-events checked: no NTR row dated 2026-09-19 to 2026-09-23. No newly filed period on disk — the newest filed period still ends 2025-12-31 (40-F filed 2026-02-27); the Q2 numbers remain news-only. |
| 2026-09-28 | NTR $71.98, RSI 40.5, -6.8% vs SMA20, 30D -2.1%. The long trend remains intact; Nutrien's August Q2 issuer release, distributed through Business Wire reports $10.812B sales versus $10.438B a year earlier (+3.6%), $1.22B net earnings, $2.61 adjusted EPS and raised potash volume guidance to 14.2–14.8 million tonnes. Adjusted EPS is a management non-GAAP measure; it must not be called GAAP EPS. The September 28 hosted pull returned five quote pages, including two pages merely stamped with today's date; none reports a new issuer event. The Q2 issuer release remains the business proof and the session's move is unassigned. No company event for NTR was recorded between September 24 and 28. |
Sources
- Steady-climber placement: 2026-09-18-monster-scan.
- News receipt: latest (fetched 2026-09-22; 24/7 Wall St. Q2 recap and an OTC Markets news page; several items carry inferred dates).
- Heavy-volume flag: 2026-09-21-market-brief.
- Scheduled-event check:
research/stock-events/— no NTR row dated 2026-09-12 to 2026-09-23. - Filing cache: key-financials (newest filed period ends 2025-12-31).
- Prior-cycle history: this file's dated update log.
2026-09-28 refresh receipts
2026-09-28 settled-close receipt: *, NTR row dated 2026-09-28; tape values above are bound to the current summary fields.
2026-09-28 financial-source gap: current Massive/SEC direct-quarter cache does not establish an issuer quarter; retained prior dated issuer/report citations and marked the gap above.
2026-09-28 issuer-report check: Nutrien's August Q2 issuer release, distributed through Business Wire reports $10.812B sales versus $10.438B a year earlier (+3.6%), $1.22B net earnings, $2.61 adjusted EPS and raised potash volume guidance to 14.2–14.8 million tonnes. Adjusted EPS is a management non-GAAP measure; it must not be called GAAP EPS. This source supplies the 2026-06-30 report period where the machine-readable direct-quarter cache has a gap.
2026-09-28 news receipt check: latest, fetched 2026-09-28; fresh successful receipt; event-quality review summarized above.
2026-09-28 stock-event scan:
research/stock-events/, no NTR row dated 2026-09-24 through 2026-09-28.2026-09-28 captured-follows scan: tweets has 0 September 24–28 document(s) tagging NTR.
Retrospective social-search receipt (captured 2026-09-29): 2026-09-29-social-search-ntr; quality/attention check only, not a September 28 event or price source.