Article published Sep 28, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.
NVTS Price Structure
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Navitas Semiconductor Corporation has cratered and is only bouncing: 65.7% below its 52-week high and down 33.9% since June 29, despite rising 2.1% since August 28; it sits 10.7% below its 200-day average. At the 2026-09-28 settled close, NVTS $11.73 was +2.0% versus its 20-day average and +2.1% over 30 days. The newest verified quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-07-27); revenue was $10.5M. Against 2025-06-30 revenue of $14.5M, that is -27.3% year over year. Operating cash flow was -$48.3M in the first half; the September 21 brief notes inventory up 29% YoY against revenue down 27%; roughly 85x trailing sales (as of 2026-09-23 at $11.84). The standing call is 🔴 Out — speculative, pre-scale, collapse regime. Entry $13.50–$14.50 only after a 200-day reclaim and a Q3 near guide · stop $11.50 · first target $17 · low conviction.
Quick Snapshot (as of 2026-09-28)
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| The call | 🔴 Out — speculative, pre-scale, collapse regime. Entry $13.50–$14.50 only after a 200-day reclaim and a Q3 near guide · stop $11.50 · first target $17 · low conviction |
| What is Navitas? | A fabless power-semiconductor company focused on gallium-nitride power ICs and silicon-carbide devices, repositioning from mobile chargers toward AI data centers, grid and high-voltage systems. |
| Why look now? | The September 28 U.S. Army ALATTIS prototype selection adds a concrete ultra-high-voltage SiC program; commercial scale and award economics remain undisclosed. |
| What is the proof? | Latest verified period ended 2026-06-30, filed 2026-07-27: revenue $10.5M. Prior case: Thin: Q2 revenue was $10.5M, down 27% YoY, with high-power revenue up more than 50%; Q3 is guided to $13.0–$14.0M (Q2 10-Q and release). |
| What is the objection? | Operating cash flow was -$48.3M in the first half; the September 21 brief notes inventory up 29% YoY against revenue down 27%; roughly 85x trailing sales (as of 2026-09-23 at $11.84). |
| Stock setup | The long trend is under test below its 200-day average; +2.0% versus the 20-day, -10.7% versus the 200-day, RSI 48.2. |
Action Matrix (reviewed 2026-09-28; levels are standing conditions)
| Signal | Condition | Level | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Out | Below the 200-day in a collapse regime | 200-day, $13.10 on 2026-09-23 | A bounce inside a collapse is not the desk's entry shape |
| 🟡 Wait | Q3 revenue (due 2026-11-02) near the $13.5M midpoint | — | The first commercial proof |
| 🟢 Buy | A 200-day reclaim after a Q3 delivery | $13.50–$14.50 | Needs the business and the tape together |
| 🟠 Target | First target | $17 | A planning level below the summer breakdown |
| 🔴 Thesis breaks | Further dilution or a missed Q3 guide | — | The cash cushion is the only thing buying time |
The Story Right Now (as of 2026-09-28)
Navitas Semiconductor Corporation has cratered and is only bouncing: 65.7% below its 52-week high and down 33.9% since June 29, despite rising 2.1% since August 28; it sits 10.7% below its 200-day average.
Data as of 2026-09-28 close: NVTS $11.73, RSI 48.2, strong-down, +2.0% vs SMA20, -10.7% vs SMA200, 7D -3.5%, 30D +2.1%, 1Y +63.1%, -65.7% from the 52-week high.
Business and mechanism. A fabless power-semiconductor company focused on gallium-nitride power ICs and silicon-carbide devices, repositioning from mobile chargers toward AI data centers, grid and high-voltage systems.
Prior case (2026-09-23). The AI power-delivery group re-rated this week (Vicor's guidance raise on September 21 led it), and Navitas moved with it.
Prior proof (2026-09-23). Thin: Q2 revenue was $10.5M, down 27% YoY, with high-power revenue up more than 50%; Q3 is guided to $13.0–$14.0M (Q2 10-Q and release).
The countercase. Operating cash flow was -$48.3M in the first half; the September 21 brief notes inventory up 29% YoY against revenue down 27%; roughly 85x trailing sales (as of 2026-09-23 at $11.84).
Newest statement check. The newest verified quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-07-27); revenue was $10.5M. Against 2025-06-30 revenue of $14.5M, that is -27.3% year over year.
Verified source event. Navitas announced September 28 that the U.S. Army selected it for the ALATTIS prototype program to develop and validate a domestic process for 10 kV silicon-carbide devices. The release gives no award value or production order. It is technical validation, not proof of commercial revenue or the cause of the September 28 share move.
News and attention check. The news search for the latest move failed; the last completed search was on 2026-09-23. No company event for NVTS was recorded between September 24 and 28.
The call: 🔴 Out — speculative, pre-scale, collapse regime. Entry $13.50–$14.50 only after a 200-day reclaim and a Q3 near guide · stop $11.50 · first target $17 · low conviction.
Extended analysis
Price Data (live — latest settled close)
A live table: every cell shows the latest settled close, named in the first row. Dated readings live in the Research Log.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| As of (settled close) | 2026-10-16 |
| Price ($) | 8.34 |
| RSI (14) | 27.5 |
| 20-day average ($) | 11.24 |
| vs 20-day (%) | -25.8 |
| 50-day average ($) | 11.86 |
| vs 50-day (%) | -29.7 |
| 200-day average ($) | 13.35 |
| vs 200-day (%) | -37.5 |
| 1D (%) | -9.64 |
| 7D (%) | -22.63 |
| 30D (%) | -20.42 |
| 3M (%) | -27.23 |
| 1Y (%) | -46.64 |
| 1Y vs benchmark (points) | -62.17 |
| From 52-week high (%) | -75.59 |
Prior Research (prepared by 2026-09-23; current call and filed-period check above)
Summary
Silicon is mature, cheap and ubiquitous. Gallium nitride and silicon carbide can switch higher voltages more efficiently, operate at higher frequency and reduce the size of surrounding components. Those properties are valuable when power density becomes a system constraint.
Navitas built its first commercial base in fast chargers and consumer products. It is now pursuing a more ambitious market: AI data centers, grid infrastructure, industrial drives, electric vehicles and other high-power systems. Management calls the transition “Navitas 2.0” and expects high-power and AI/Grid products to exceed one-third of revenue by year-end.
The technology story is coherent. The economic story is several stages behind it. Design wins, samples and reference platforms create an opportunity; they do not pay for the organization until customers reach production. Current revenue remains below the prior year, losses are large, and the stock values each trailing sales dollar at roughly 93 times.
Why This Moment Is Different
Q2 offered early evidence that the portfolio shift is beginning to affect revenue.
- Revenue rose 22% sequentially to $10.5M.
- High-power markets grew more than 50% YoY even as total revenue fell 27%.
- Q3 guidance of $13.0–14.0M implies another 28% sequential increase at the midpoint and a return to YoY growth.
- Management expects high-power and AI/Grid products to exceed one-third of sales by year-end while it exits much of the mobile business.
The denominator is crucial. A few million dollars of incremental shipments can create a large growth percentage. At Q2's scale, one customer schedule can also reverse it. The stronger evidence will be multiple quarters of production revenue, improving gross margin and lower cash burn.
The $557.4M cash balance gives Navitas time. Much of it came from financing rather than operations, and a larger share count spreads any eventual value across more owners. Liquidity protects the roadmap from immediate distress; it does not validate the valuation.
How the Business Makes Money
| Platform | What it sells | Target applications |
|---|---|---|
| GaNSafe and GaNFast | Gallium-nitride power ICs and switches, often integrating drive, protection and control | Data-center power, fast charging, consumer, appliances and industrial systems. |
| GeneSiC | Silicon-carbide MOSFETs and diodes for higher-voltage, higher-power use | Grid, energy storage, solar, industrial drives, EV charging and vehicles. |
| Design support | Reference designs, application engineering and system partnerships | Helps customers qualify unfamiliar wide-bandgap devices and shorten development cycles. |
Navitas is fabless. It relies on external wafer fabrication, packaging and testing, which limits fixed factory investment but creates supplier and qualification dependencies. Product cycles are long in high-power markets because reliability matters more than being first to sample.
The moat, if it forms, will come from integration, reliability data, patents and application support. Wide-bandgap competition is intense: large incumbents can bundle products, fund capacity and support global customers. Navitas must prove that its focused architecture wins enough content to offset their scale.
What the Filing Says the Company Is Becoming
The filing describes a deliberate retreat from low-power mobile markets and a concentration of people and spending on AI data centers, grid, industrial and other high-power applications. That choice can improve the long-term revenue pool and product value. It creates a near-term air pocket because the old business declines before new programs reach volume.
The 10-K is explicit about the conversion risk: design wins involve long development cycles, may require substantial engineering work and may never generate meaningful sales. The company also depends on a small number of third-party manufacturers and competes against much larger suppliers.
Q2's $228.2M GAAP net loss looks worse than the operating quarter because it included a $203.1M non-cash loss from remeasuring earnout liabilities. The cleaner operating fact is still severe: operating loss was $27.2M on $10.5M of revenue, and first-half operating cash flow was negative $48.3M.
What the Street and Public Conversation Are Saying
The bullish public case emphasizes announced design wins, NVIDIA ecosystem references and the physical advantages of GaN and SiC. One recent long-form X post drew substantial engagement and assembled a thoughtful technology roadmap. It is useful positioning research; customer revenue remains the test.
Other search results were promotional partner-list posts or an old unusual-options item. The attention level helps explain the stock's volatility. It does not strengthen the financial chain.
The aggregate insider feed reports one purchase and 65 sales, with roughly $301M of net selling over its captured period. Financing, grants and planned transactions complicate the gross number. The narrow conclusion is that insider activity does not offset the valuation risk; production revenue must do that work.
The Conviction Chain
| Link | Evidence today | What would strengthen it | What breaks it |
|---|---|---|---|
| High-power systems adopt more GaN and SiC | AI, grid and industrial customers need efficiency, voltage and power density. | Industry production volumes rise across multiple applications. | Silicon remains sufficient or wide-bandgap costs stay too high. |
| Navitas wins qualified designs | High-power revenue grew more than 50% YoY, and Q3 guidance points to sequential acceleration. | Named programs reach volume with repeat orders. | Designs remain samples or customer schedules slip. |
| The portfolio shift creates a scalable business | High-power and AI/Grid should exceed one-third of revenue by year-end. | Total revenue compounds while gross margin rises and opex grows slower. | Mobile declines faster than high-power ramps, prolonging subscale losses. |
| The valuation leaves upside | Cash provides runway, but equity value is about 84.2x TTM sales (as of 2026-09-28 at $11.73, price-only repricing of the September 23 share and revenue basis). | Revenue scales by multiples without equivalent dilution. | Commercialization takes longer and the multiple normalizes first. |
Conviction is Low because the first link is strong industry logic, the second has early evidence, and the last two remain unproven.
Financial Proof
| Quarter | Revenue | Gross profit | Operating income | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $10.1M | $3.8M | $(19.4)M | $(19.2)M |
| Q4 2025 | $7.3M | $2.0M | $(41.4)M | $(31.8)M |
| Q1 2026 | $8.6M | $3.7M | $(27.8)M | $(33.8)M |
| Q2 2026 | $10.5M | $4.1M | $(27.2)M | $(228.2)M |
Trailing-four-quarter revenue is $36.5M (unchanged — no newer quarter has filed; Q3 2026 is due 2026-11-02). As of 2026-09-23 at $11.84, equity value is about $3.09B on the desk's repriced market-capitalization field, which is about 85x sales; earlier rows used a larger share basis, so the step down from 92.4x on September 18 is a basis change, not a price move. An earnings multiple is not meaningful. Q2's non-cash earnout remeasurement distorts net income, but excluding it would not make the business close to profitable.
The balance sheet is the genuine cushion. Cash and equivalents were $557.4M at June 30. The underwriting question is how much of that cash must be spent—and how many additional shares may be issued—before high-power revenue can support the cost base.
The Stock Setup (as of 2026-09-18 — history; the current setup is at the top of this page)
| Signal | September 18 reading | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $11.43 | Down 1.72% on the week despite a +2.60% Friday. |
| RSI (14) | 46.2 | Warmed from 44.7, still under the midline. |
| 7D / 30D / 3M | -1.7% / -10.9% / -52.4% | The month improved slightly; the quarter deepened past a 50% loss. |
| 52-week drawdown | -66.6% | Widened from -66.0%. |
| SMA20 / SMA50 / SMA200 | -1.5% / -5.7% / -12.4% | Below all three; the 20-day gap nearly closed while the 200-day gap widened from -10.5%. |
| One-year return | +69.8% | Moderated from +91.3% as the squeeze rolls out of the window; alpha1y +54.82. |
The stock can move sharply on design announcements or cohort-wide semiconductor moves because the revenue base is tiny — Friday's +2.60% came alongside gains across the AI-power peers (VICR +2.93%, MPWR +4.12%, POWI +2.52%) on quarterly options expiry, but no NVTS-specific news receipt confirms causation; the cache was last written 2026-08-23, almost four weeks before this close. A more durable setup still requires Q3 delivery near $13.5M, evidence that high-power shipments rather than financing or narrative drive the move, and a reclaim of the 200-day average at $13.05.
What to Watch Next
- Q3 revenue: the $13.0–14.0M guide is the immediate commercialization test.
- High-power mix: more than one-third of year-end revenue should come with total-company growth.
- Named production: customer shipments and repeat orders matter more than additional design-win counts.
- Cash burn and dilution: track operating cash flow, stock issuance and earnout obligations together.
- Gross margin: scale should lift gross profit faster than operating expense.
Financial Proof
Filed-period check (as of 2026-09-28): The newest verified quarter ended 2026-06-30 and was filed 2026-07-27. Revenue was $10.5M; GAAP net income was −$228.2M; diluted EPS was -0.95. Source: Massive income statements and the filing. Dated historical tables below retain their own period basis.
The recent filed revenue series shows the direction of the business; missing cells are left unavailable.
| Period end | Revenue | YoY | Operating income | GAAP net income | Filing date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-30 | $21.7M | — | −$29.0M | −$18.7M | 2024-11-05 |
| 2025-03-31 | $14.0M | — | −$25.3M | −$16.8M | 2025-05-09 |
| 2025-06-30 | $14.5M | — | −$21.7M | −$49.1M | 2025-08-04 |
| 2025-09-30 | $10.1M | -53.4% | −$19.4M | −$19.2M | 2025-11-03 |
| 2026-03-31 | $8.6M | -38.7% | −$27.8M | −$33.8M | 2026-05-05 |
| 2026-06-30 | $10.5M | -27.3% | −$27.2M | −$228.2M | 2026-07-27 |
Refresh History
| Date | Price | What changed |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | $26.60 | Initial high-power profile arrived after a large speculative run. |
| 2026-06-16 | $22.09 | Momentum normalized as the squeeze began to unwind. |
| 2026-07-11 | $13.47 | Price fell through short-term averages and approached the long-term line. |
| 2026-07-17 | $11.46 | Three-month return turned negative. |
| 2026-07-25 | $10.92 | Selling slowed near the old bear-case range. |
| 2026-07-28 | $10.01 | Drawdown reached 70.7%. |
| 2026-07-31 | $10.86 | Small bounce; no new business evidence. |
| 2026-08-08 | $13.89 | Q2 produced a sharp relief rally. |
| 2026-08-14 | $14.45 | Follow-through continued. |
| 2026-08-22 | $12.97 | Q2 filing incorporated: high-power conversion began, while scale, burn and valuation remain unresolved. |
| 2026-08-28 | $11.49 | Tape update: no new filing this cycle. RSI 39.4, a new file-low price, broke below the 200-day (-10.5%) for the first time, -66.4% from high. Stock-events checked: none new. News not pulled for this move — the NVTS cache was last fetched 2026-08-23, stale relative to this week's decline. |
| 2026-09-04 | $11.80 | Tape update: no new filing this cycle (newest cached quarter is still Q2 2026). RSI warmed to 44.5, price bounced +2.8% 7D (incl. +6.3% on 09-04), still -8.6% below the 200-day. 1Y accelerated to +113.0% on a base-effect window roll. Multiples restated at the new price (95.4x TTM sales, up from 92.7x on price alone). Stock-events checked: none new. News not pulled for this move — cache last fetched 2026-08-23; the bounce is consistent with a broad semiconductor-cohort rally on 2026-09-04, not a confirmed NVTS-specific catalyst. |
| 2026-09-11 | $11.63 | Tape update: no new filing this cycle (newest cached quarter is still Q2 2026; Q3 2026 due 2026-11-02). RSI roughly flat at 44.7, 7D turned negative (-1.4%), 30D deepened to -16.5%, still -10.5% below the 200-day (widened from -8.6%). 1Y moderated to +91.3% on the window roll. Multiples restated at the new price (94.0x TTM sales, down slightly from 95.4x on price alone). Stock-events checked: none new. News not pulled for this move — cache last fetched 2026-08-23, now roughly three weeks stale; the +4.3% single-day pop on 09-11 coincided with a broad AI-power cohort rally that day (POWI, VICR, MPWR and others also up), not a confirmed NVTS-specific catalyst. |
| 2026-09-18 | $11.43 | Tape update: no newly filed period on disk (newest filed quarter still ends 2026-06-30, filed 2026-07-27; Q3 2026 due 2026-11-02). RSI 46.2, 7D -1.72%, 30D -10.91%, 3M -52.41%, -66.55% from the high, still below all three averages with the 200-day gap widened to -12.4% (from -10.5%). 1Y moderated to +69.84% with alpha1y +54.82 — positive on the year only because the May squeeze is still inside the window; the trend itself is broken. Multiples restated at the new price (92.4x TTM sales, down from 94.0x on price alone). Stock-events checked: no NVTS row dated 2026-09-12 to 2026-09-18. News not pulled for this move — receipt last written 2026-08-23. Friday's +2.60% came alongside gains across the AI-power peers on quarterly options expiry, with no NVTS-specific cause on file. |
| 2026-09-23 | $11.84 | Tape update: no newly filed period on disk (newest filed quarter still ends 2026-06-30, filed 2026-07-27; Q3 due 2026-11-02; the 8-K/A flagged in the 2026-09-21 brief is not in the filing cache). RSI 49.2, 7D +12.98%, 1D -4.98%, 30D -3.19%, 3M -35.37%, -65.35% from the high; -9.6% below the 200-day. 1Y +72.09% with a one-year excess return of +56.32 points — squeeze residue; the trend is broken. The bounce moved with the AI power-delivery group (Vicor's guidance raise, 2026-09-21). Multiple restated on the repriced market-cap field (about 85x TTM sales — a share-basis change from 92.4x). Stock-events checked: no NVTS row dated 2026-09-19 to 2026-09-23. News not pulled for this move — receipt last written 2026-08-23. |
| 2026-09-28 | $11.73 | RSI 48.2; +2.0% vs SMA20; 30D +2.1%. The long trend is under test below its 200-day average; The newest verified quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-07-27); revenue was $10.5M. Against 2025-06-30 revenue of $14.5M, that is -27.3% year over year. The news search for the latest move failed; the last completed search was on 2026-09-23. No company event for NVTS was recorded between September 24 and 28. |
Sources
- Navitas Q2 2026 results — revenue, high-power growth, outlook, cash and strategy.
- Navitas Q2 2026 Form 10-Q — financial statements, cash flow, earnout remeasurement and filed risks.
- Navitas 2025 Form 10-K — business model, design-win conversion risk, manufacturing and competition.
- NVTS{massive,edgar,news}/` — financial series and freshness receipts.
- ai-power — September 23, 2026 price truth and repriced market-capitalization field.
- 2026-09-21-market-brief and 2026-09-22-market-brief — the converging-reads flag (tape, inventory, 8-K/A) and the power-supply group's move on Vicor's guidance raise.
- latest — news receipt, fetched 2026-08-23, before this move.
research/stock-events/— no NVTS row dated 2026-09-12 to 2026-09-23.- 2026-09-17-market-brief — quarterly options expiry on Friday 2026-09-18.
- 2026-08-23-social-search-nvts-navitas-semiconductor — public-discussion and positioning-quality check.
- filings — primary Form 4 links supporting the insider-activity context.
2026-09-28 refresh receipts
2026-09-28 settled-close receipt: *, NVTS row dated 2026-09-28; tape values above are bound to the current summary fields.
2026-09-28 financial-period check: income-statements and key-financials; newest verified 2026-06-30 period, filed 2026-07-27 (Massive statement / SEC period cross-check).
2026-09-28 news receipt check: latest, fetched 2026-09-23; receipt is not current; latest-session cause remains unassigned.
2026-09-28 stock-event scan:
research/stock-events/, no NVTS row dated 2026-09-24 through 2026-09-28.2026-09-28 captured-follows scan: tweets has 0 September 24–28 document(s) tagging NVTS.
Retrospective social-search receipt (captured 2026-09-29): 2026-09-29-social-search-nvts-navitas-semiconductor-corporation; quality/attention check only, not a September 28 event or price source.
Primary/source event receipt (captured 2026-09-29, published by 2026-09-28): nvts-army-10kv-sep28; checked for the September 28 current view.
2026-09-29 browser discovery check for NVTS: news-discovery-google-sep29 (key
NVTS); search links only, not evidence of an event or of absence of news.