Palantir's Filed Growth Meets a Demanding Valuation

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Article published Sep 28, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.

PLTR Price Structure

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Palantir Technologies Inc. is holding up: roughly flat since August 28 (up 0.6%), up 62.0% since June 29 and 23.3% above its 200-day average, up 4.8% over the past year. At the 2026-09-28 settled close, PLTR $187.48 was +5.1% versus its 20-day average and +0.6% over 30 days. The newest verified quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-08-04); revenue was $1.94B. Against 2025-06-30 revenue of $1.00B, that is +92.8% year over year. About 73.9x trailing revenue and 163.5x trailing GAAP earnings (as of 2026-09-25 at $189.67). The company's own full-year guide assumes growth slows to about +77% in the second half. Insiders sold about $93M in August–September Form 4s, $86.1M of it the CEO's; none bought. The standing call is 🟡 Wait for a daily close above the $194.68 base pivot. Entry $194.68–$199 · stop $183 · first target $207 · medium conviction.

Quick Snapshot (as of 2026-09-28)

Question Answer
The call 🟡 Wait for a daily close above the $194.68 base pivot. Entry $194.68–$199 · stop $183 · first target $207 · medium conviction
What is Palantir? Software that maps an organization's data, logic and actions into one operating model (the Ontology) and lets people and AI agents act on it: Foundry, AIP, Gotham and Apollo, sold to governments (54% of FY2025 revenue) and companies (46%), per the FY2025 10-K.
Why look now? Prior case (2026-09-25): The stock is testing the top of the base it built after the August print. A close through $194.68 completes the bottom → pop → flag → breakout sequence the desk trades.
What is the proof? Latest verified period ended 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-04: revenue $1.94B. Prior case: Year-over-year revenue growth has risen five quarters running, to +92.8% in Q2 2026, with a 47.1% operating margin (GAAP, Q2 10-Q). Remaining performance obligations doubled in a year to $4.9B.
What is the objection? About 73.9x trailing revenue and 163.5x trailing GAAP earnings (as of 2026-09-25 at $189.67). The company's own full-year guide assumes growth slows to about +77% in the second half. Insiders sold about $93M in August–September Form 4s, $86.1M of it the CEO's; none bought.
Stock setup The long trend remains intact; +5.1% versus the 20-day, +23.3% versus the 200-day, RSI 61.

Action Matrix (reviewed 2026-09-28; levels are standing conditions)

Signal Condition Level Why
🟡 Wait Trading inside the base, below the pivot $184.34–$194.68 The flag is intact but unresolved; buying inside it is buying before confirmation
🟢 Buy The first daily close above the base pivot; enter up to $199 $194.68–$199 The breakout from a six-week flag after the post-print pop
🟠 Target First target, the 52-week high ($207.52) $207 The only overhead on the chart; above it, trail rather than cap
🔴 Out A daily close below the stop after entry $183 Back under the $184.34 shelf, the breakout has failed; the stop bounds the loss to the base, not to the 200-day
🔴 Out A daily close below the September 10 close $165.86 The flag's low breaks and the setup is void; the 200-day becomes the level to watch
🔴 Thesis breaks At the Q3 report (scheduled November 2): revenue growth below the guide's implied ~+77% second-half pace, US commercial growth under +100%, or a lowered full-year revenue guide — The multiple is paid for acceleration; a company that stops beating its own plan loses the reason for the premium

The Story Right Now (as of 2026-09-28)

Palantir Technologies Inc. is holding up: roughly flat since August 28 (up 0.6%), up 62.0% since June 29 and 23.3% above its 200-day average, up 4.8% over the past year.

Data as of 2026-09-28 close: PLTR $187.48, RSI 61, strong-up, +5.1% vs SMA20, +23.3% vs SMA200, 7D +2.4%, 30D +0.6%, 1Y +4.8%, -9.7% from the 52-week high.

Business and mechanism. Software that maps an organization's data, logic and actions into one operating model (the Ontology) and lets people and AI agents act on it: Foundry, AIP, Gotham and Apollo, sold to governments (54% of FY2025 revenue) and companies (46%), per the FY2025 10-K.

Prior case (2026-09-25). The stock is testing the top of the base it built after the August print. A close through $194.68 completes the bottom → pop → flag → breakout sequence the desk trades.

Prior proof (2026-09-25). Year-over-year revenue growth has risen five quarters running, to +92.8% in Q2 2026, with a 47.1% operating margin (GAAP, Q2 10-Q). Remaining performance obligations doubled in a year to $4.9B.

The countercase. About 73.9x trailing revenue and 163.5x trailing GAAP earnings (as of 2026-09-25 at $189.67). The company's own full-year guide assumes growth slows to about +77% in the second half. Insiders sold about $93M in August–September Form 4s, $86.1M of it the CEO's; none bought.

Newest statement check. The newest verified quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-08-04); revenue was $1.94B. Against 2025-06-30 revenue of $1.00B, that is +92.8% year over year.

News and attention check. The news search for the latest move failed; the last completed search was on 2026-09-25. No company event for PLTR was recorded between September 24 and 28. 5 social posts from tracked accounts mentioned it between September 24 and 28; that is attention, not company news.

The call: 🟡 Wait for a daily close above the $194.68 base pivot. Entry $194.68–$199 · stop $183 · first target $207 · medium conviction.

Extended analysis