Article published Sep 28, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.
PTON Price Structure
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$PTON is cratering: 47.8% below its 52-week high, down 11.9% since August 28 and down 16.8% since June 29, and 10.6% below its 200-day average. At the 2026-09-28 settled close, PTON $4.80 was -4.3% versus its 20-day average and -11.9% over 30 days. The newest verified derived fourth quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-08-06); revenue was $607.7M. Against 2025-06-30 revenue of $606.9M, that is +0.1% year over year. A shrinking subscriber base, a sell-side target at the desk's own thesis-killer level, and a first bond deal that adds leverage to a business guiding revenue down. The standing call is 🔴 Out — sub-$5 turnaround with shrinking subscribers. Entry $5.72–$6.00 only after a filed quarter shows subscribers stabilising · stop $4.50 · first target $6.55 · low conviction.
Quick Snapshot (as of 2026-09-28)
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| The call | 🔴 Out — sub-$5 turnaround with shrinking subscribers. Entry $5.72–$6.00 only after a filed quarter shows subscribers stabilising · stop $4.50 · first target $6.55 · low conviction |
| What is Peloton? | Connected-fitness hardware plus a subscription content service; the subscription line is the business, the hardware is the funnel. |
| Why look now? | Prior case (2026-09-23): Fiscal 2026 was the first full year of net profitability, and FY2027 guidance calls for $475–$525M of adjusted EBITDA and at least $350M of free cash flow (Q4 call, per the news pull). |
| What is the proof? | Latest verified period ended 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-06: revenue $607.7M. Prior case: Cash generation, not growth: ending paid connected-fitness subscriptions fell 8.8% to 2.553M and FY2027 revenue is guided down 3.9% at the midpoint (company release and call, August 6 and 13). |
| What is the objection? | A shrinking subscriber base, a sell-side target at the desk's own thesis-killer level, and a first bond deal that adds leverage to a business guiding revenue down. |
| Stock setup | The long trend is broken and the stock remains under its 200-day average; -4.3% versus the 20-day, -10.6% versus the 200-day, RSI 38.3. |
Action Matrix (reviewed 2026-09-28; levels are standing conditions)
| Signal | Condition | Level | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Out | No filed subscriber stabilisation | — | A cheap share price with a shrinking customer base is not a setup |
| 🟡 Wait | Bond terms and use of proceeds disclosed | — | Refinancing versus new spending changes the risk |
| 🟢 Buy | A filed quarter with subscribers stabilising, and a close above the June 16 close | $5.72–$6.00 | Needs both the business and the tape |
| 🟠 Target | First target | $6.55 | The July 28 close, the best mark in this file's history |
| 🔴 Thesis breaks | A close below $4.50 | $4.50 | The April base; now also Morgan Stanley's target |
The Story Right Now (as of 2026-09-28)
$PTON is cratering: 47.8% below its 52-week high, down 11.9% since August 28 and down 16.8% since June 29, and 10.6% below its 200-day average.
Data as of 2026-09-28 close: PTON $4.8, RSI 38.3, down, -4.3% vs SMA20, -10.6% vs SMA200, 7D -3.0%, 30D -11.9%, 1Y -44.6%, -47.8% from the 52-week high.
Business and mechanism. Connected-fitness hardware plus a subscription content service; the subscription line is the business, the hardware is the funnel.
Prior case (2026-09-23). Fiscal 2026 was the first full year of net profitability, and FY2027 guidance calls for $475–$525M of adjusted EBITDA and at least $350M of free cash flow (Q4 call, per the news pull).
Prior proof (2026-09-23). Cash generation, not growth: ending paid connected-fitness subscriptions fell 8.8% to 2.553M and FY2027 revenue is guided down 3.9% at the midpoint (company release and call, August 6 and 13).
The countercase. A shrinking subscriber base, a sell-side target at the desk's own thesis-killer level, and a first bond deal that adds leverage to a business guiding revenue down.
Newest statement check. The newest verified derived fourth quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-08-06); revenue was $607.7M. Against 2025-06-30 revenue of $606.9M, that is +0.1% year over year.
News and attention check. The news search for the latest move failed; the last completed search was on 2026-09-19. No company event for PTON was recorded between September 24 and 28.
The call: 🔴 Out — sub-$5 turnaround with shrinking subscribers. Entry $5.72–$6.00 only after a filed quarter shows subscribers stabilising · stop $4.50 · first target $6.55 · low conviction.
Extended analysis
Price Data (live — latest settled close)
A live table: every cell shows the latest settled close, named in the first row. Dated readings live in the Research Log.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| As of (settled close) | 2026-10-16 |
| Price ($) | 5.22 |
| RSI (14) | 54.5 |
| 20-day average ($) | 5 |
| vs 20-day (%) | 4.5 |
| 50-day average ($) | 5.17 |
| vs 50-day (%) | 1.1 |
| 200-day average ($) | 5.28 |
| vs 200-day (%) | -1.2 |
| 1D (%) | -2.06 |
| 7D (%) | 1.95 |
| 30D (%) | 7.85 |
| 3M (%) | -14.71 |
| 1Y (%) | -30.59 |
| 1Y vs benchmark (points) | -46.12 |
| From 52-week high (%) | -36.26 |
Financial Proof
Filed-period check (as of 2026-09-28): The newest verified derived fourth quarter ended 2026-06-30 and was filed 2026-08-06. Revenue was $607.7M (FY $2.45B less nine months to 2026-03-31 $1.84B). Source: SEC key financials and the filing. Dated historical tables below retain their own period basis.
The recent filed revenue series shows the direction of the business; missing cells are left unavailable.
| Period end | Revenue | YoY | Operating income | GAAP net income | Filing date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-30 | $586.0M | — | $12.5M | −$900,000 | 2024-10-31 |
| 2025-03-31 | $624.0M | — | −$32.4M | −$47.7M | 2025-05-08 |
| 2025-09-30 | $550.8M | -6.0% | $41.3M | $13.9M | 2025-11-06 |
| 2025-12-31 | $656.5M | — | −$14.3M | −$38.8M | 2026-02-05 |
| 2026-03-31 | $630.9M | +1.1% | $52.5M | $26.4M | 2026-05-07 |
| 2026-06-30 (FY less nine months) | $607.7M | — | unavailable | unavailable | 2026-08-06 |
Research Log
| Date | Update |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | Initial deep dive — $4.65 RSI 57.4, weak-up, death cross, +25.3% 30D, -49.5% from 52wk high. Speculative turnaround watch. |
| 2026-05-29 | PTON $6.40, RSI 75, up; +17.43% 30D vs +25.3% prior; 3M +64.1%; from52wkHi -30.43% vs -49.5% prior. Overbought; do not chase at RSI 75. |
| 2026-06-16 | PTON $5.72, RSI 52; vs SMA20 -1.2% ($5.79); 7D +1.4%, 30D +7.92%, 3M +38.5%; -37.83% from 52wk high. RSI reset from 75 to 52 as expected — the "wait for cool" call paid off. At SMA20 support: the re-entry zone from the May 29 Action Matrix ($5.20-$5.60) is slightly below, but SMA20 touch at RSI 52 is the signal. No new fundamentals. |
| 2026-07-11 | Data as of 2026-07-10 close: PTON $5.86, RSI 54, weak-up (regime field: downtrend, death cross persists); +2.4% from 06-16 checkpoint, reclaimed SMA20 (+2.2%). 7D +5.02%, 30D +3.72%, 3M +23.89% (moderated). -36.3% from 52wk high. Confirms rather than contradicts the prior SMA20-touch re-entry read. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-17 | Data as of 2026-07-16 close: PTON $6.12, RSI 57.2, up (regime field: pullback, death cross persists); +4.4% from 07-11 checkpoint, +4.3% above SMA20. 7D +4.44%, 30D +6.07%, 3M +18.15% (moderated further). -33.48% from 52wk high. Bounce extending; no contradiction of the prior read. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-25 | Data as of the Friday 2026-07-24 close: PTON $6.08, RSI 52.4, strong-up (regime "pullback"); essentially flat vs 07-17 checkpoint (-0.65% 7D), +0.9% above SMA20. 30D +6.11%, 3M +17.37% (roughly steady). -34.46% from 52wk high. Golden cross has cleared for the first time in this file — the death cross flagged at every prior checkpoint is gone. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-28 | PTON $6.55, RSI 61.6, strong-up (regime "pullback"); +7.7% vs 07-25 checkpoint, +7.8% above SMA20. 30D +13.52%, 3M +17.59% (roughly steady). -28.8% from 52wk high — best mark in this file's history. Golden cross remains confirmed. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-31 | PTON $6.39, RSI 57, strong-up; 7D +5.10%; 30D +8.31%; 3M +19.22%; -30.54% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-08 | PTON $5.68, RSI 41.3, down; 7D -11.11%; 30D -1.73%; 3M -0.18%; -29.13% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-14 | PTON $5.63, RSI 41.5, down; 7D -0.88%; 30D -11.06%; 3M n/a%; -39.57% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-22 | PTON $5.41, RSI 41.5, down; 7D -4.09%; 30D -13.58%; 3M -5.25%; -41.20% from 52wk high. 1Y -29.65%, vs SMA200 -3.30%. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-28 | PTON $5.44, RSI 43.9, down; 7D +0.74%; 30D -17.45%; 3M -15.00%; -40.87% from 52wk high. 1Y -28.23%, vs SMA200 -2.0%. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-09-04 | PTON $5.40, RSI 45.7, down; 7D -0.74%; 30D -17.18%; 3M -6.41%; -41.30% from 52wk high. 1Y -33.50%, vs SMA200 -1.80%. News not pulled for this move (last fetched 2026-06-21, over two months stale). |
| 2026-09-11 | PTON $4.95, RSI 36.8, down; 7D -8.33%; 30D -8.67%; 3M -10.81%; -46.2% from 52wk high — new file-low price. 1Y -35.29%, vs SMA200 -9.4% (widened sharply — the 200-day cushion has broken). News not pulled for this move (last fetched 2026-06-21, now roughly twelve weeks stale). |
| 2026-09-18 | PTON $4.97, RSI 39.9, down; 1D +1.43%; 7D +0.40%; 30D -9.14%; 3M -13.86%; -45.98% from 52wk high. 1Y -37.33% with alpha1y -52.34 and price -8.3% below the 200-day — a broken long trend that merely paused this week. Stock-events checked: no PTON row dated 2026-09-12 to 2026-09-18. News not pulled for this move — the last attempt failed on 2026-06-21 and the receipt is marked stale, so it is a false negative, not evidence of quiet. No newly filed period on disk: the newest filed quarter ends 2026-03-31. |
| 2026-09-23 | No tape figures this cycle: the only settled summary carrying PTON is a book file, not read (book-blind) — missing-data request filed. Company events on record: Morgan Stanley downgrade to Underweight, $4.50 target, 2026-09-17 (Investing.com page in the news pull fetched 2026-09-19); Bloomberg, 2026-09-23, reports talks on a first-ever ~$800M bond. Top rewritten with a call (Out until a filed quarter shows subscribers stabilising); the stale undated 'Context' section (May–June momentum read) was folded into this row as history. Stock-events checked: no PTON row dated 2026-09-19 to 2026-09-23. No newly filed period on disk: newest filed quarter still ends 2026-03-31 (10-Q filed 2026-05-07); the FY2026 annual report is not in the filing cache. |
| 2026-09-28 | PTON $4.80, RSI 38.3, -4.3% vs SMA20, 30D -11.9%. The long trend is broken and the stock remains under its 200-day average; The newest verified derived fourth quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-08-06); revenue was $607.7M. Against 2025-06-30 revenue of $606.9M, that is +0.1% year over year. The news search for the latest move failed; the last completed search was on 2026-09-19. No company event for PTON was recorded between September 24 and 28. |
Sources
- Tape data: the only settled summary carrying this symbol is a book file, which is not read for this profile (book-blind); prose tape figures stop at the 2026-09-18 log row, and the live table binds the latest close.
- Bond talks: Bloomberg, "Peloton Holds Talks for Potential $800 Million Debut Bond Deal," 2026-09-23 — captured at 2026-09-23-bloomberg-peloton-holds-talks-for-potential-800-million-debut-bond-dea-tltz8bkjh6v400.
- Q4 FY2026: Peloton release, 2026-08-06 and Motley Fool call transcript, 2026-08-13; Morgan Stanley downgrade via Investing.com; short interest via Benzinga.
- News receipt: latest (fetched 2026-09-19, ok; carries the Morgan Stanley downgrade page, a Benzinga short-interest page, the Q4 FY2026 release and call).
- Scheduled-event check:
research/stock-events/— no PTON row dated 2026-09-12 to 2026-09-23. - Prior-cycle history: this file's dated update log.
2026-09-28 refresh receipts
2026-09-28 settled-close receipt: *, PTON row dated 2026-09-28; tape values above are bound to the current summary fields.
2026-09-28 financial-period check: income-statements and key-financials; newest verified 2026-06-30 period, filed 2026-08-06 (SEC XBRL FY less nine months).
2026-09-28 news receipt check: latest, fetched 2026-09-19; receipt is not current; latest-session cause remains unassigned.
2026-09-28 stock-event scan:
research/stock-events/, no PTON row dated 2026-09-24 through 2026-09-28.2026-09-28 captured-follows scan: tweets has 0 September 24–28 document(s) tagging PTON.
Retrospective social-search receipt (captured 2026-09-29): 2026-09-29-social-search-pton; quality/attention check only, not a September 28 event or price source.
2026-09-29 browser discovery check for PTON: news-discovery-google-sep29 (key
PTON); search links only, not evidence of an event or of absence of news.