Article published Sep 28, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.
SOFI Price Structure
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$SOFI is cratering: 51.3% below its 52-week high, down 11.8% since August 28 and down 12.4% since June 29, and 16.9% below its 200-day average. At the 2026-09-28 settled close, SOFI $15.93 was -7.5% versus its 20-day average and -11.8% over 30 days. The newest verified quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-08-06); revenue was $1.22B. Against 2025-06-30 net revenue of $854.9M, that is +42.5% year over year. The Fed hiked 25bp to 3.75%–4.00% on 2026-09-16 and markets now price an October hike; funding costs and credit risk both move the wrong way for a lender. The standing call is 🔴 Out — broken trend, wrong rate direction. Entry $19–$20 only after a 200-day reclaim · stop $16.50 · first target $22 · low conviction.
Quick Snapshot (as of 2026-09-28)
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| The call | 🔴 Out — broken trend, wrong rate direction. Entry $19–$20 only after a 200-day reclaim · stop $16.50 · first target $22 · low conviction |
| What is SoFi? | A digital bank: personal, student and home loans plus deposits, investing, and a technology platform sold to other financial firms. |
| Why look now? | Prior case (2026-09-23): The drawdown is at its deepest in this file; the business itself reported a record Q2. |
| What is the proof? | Latest verified period ended 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-06: revenue $1.22B. Prior case: Q2 2026 (July 28): record net revenue of $1.2B, net income of $157M, and full-year adjusted net revenue guidance raised to $4.75–$4.85B (company release, per the news pull). |
| What is the objection? | The Fed hiked 25bp to 3.75%–4.00% on 2026-09-16 and markets now price an October hike; funding costs and credit risk both move the wrong way for a lender. |
| Stock setup | The long trend is broken and the stock remains under its 200-day average; -7.5% versus the 20-day, -16.9% versus the 200-day, RSI 36.7. |
Action Matrix (reviewed 2026-09-28; levels are standing conditions)
| Signal | Condition | Level | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Out | Below the 200-day in a hiking cycle | 200-day, $19.33 on 2026-09-23 | Trend and macro both against it; washout buys have lost on the desk's record |
| 🟡 Wait | A close back above the September 18 close | $16.96 | The first sign the September leg is done |
| 🟢 Buy | A reclaim and hold of the 200-day | $19–$20 | Only a repaired trend is a trend-hold entry |
| 🟠 Target | First target | $22 | Beneath the old $24–$26 re-rate zone |
| 🔴 Thesis breaks | A close below $13.50 | $13.50 | Below the April base |
The Story Right Now (as of 2026-09-28)
$SOFI is cratering: 51.3% below its 52-week high, down 11.8% since August 28 and down 12.4% since June 29, and 16.9% below its 200-day average.
Data as of 2026-09-28 close: SOFI $15.93, RSI 36.7, strong-down, -7.5% vs SMA20, -16.9% vs SMA200, 7D -6.1%, 30D -11.8%, 1Y -42.2%, -51.3% from the 52-week high.
Business and mechanism. A digital bank: personal, student and home loans plus deposits, investing, and a technology platform sold to other financial firms.
Prior case (2026-09-23). The drawdown is at its deepest in this file; the business itself reported a record Q2.
Prior proof (2026-09-23). Q2 2026 (July 28): record net revenue of $1.2B, net income of $157M, and full-year adjusted net revenue guidance raised to $4.75–$4.85B (company release, per the news pull).
The countercase. The Fed hiked 25bp to 3.75%–4.00% on 2026-09-16 and markets now price an October hike; funding costs and credit risk both move the wrong way for a lender.
Newest statement check. The newest verified quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-08-06); revenue was $1.22B. Against 2025-06-30 net revenue of $854.9M, that is +42.5% year over year.
News and attention check. The news search for the latest move failed; the last completed search was on 2026-09-25. No company event for SOFI was recorded between September 24 and 28.
The call: 🔴 Out — broken trend, wrong rate direction. Entry $19–$20 only after a 200-day reclaim · stop $16.50 · first target $22 · low conviction.
Extended analysis
Price Data (live — latest settled close)
A live table: every cell shows the latest settled close, named in the first row. Dated readings live in the Research Log.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| As of (settled close) | 2026-10-16 |
| Price ($) | 14.55 |
| RSI (14) | 34.7 |
| 20-day average ($) | 15.82 |
| vs 20-day (%) | -8 |
| 50-day average ($) | 17.09 |
| vs 50-day (%) | -14.9 |
| 200-day average ($) | 18.37 |
| vs 200-day (%) | -20.8 |
| 1D (%) | -3.58 |
| 7D (%) | -7.91 |
| 30D (%) | -13.6 |
| 3M (%) | -15.8 |
| 1Y (%) | -45.3 |
| 1Y vs benchmark (points) | -60.83 |
| From 52-week high (%) | -55.55 |
Δ April 10 to July 28, 2026 (historical)
| Metric | Apr 10 | May 29 | Jun 16 | Jul 11 | Jul 17 | Jul 25 | Jul 28 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $16.17 | $18.22 | $17.71 | $18.78 | $17.28 | $16.46 | $16.74 | Modest bounce within pullback |
| RSI | 39.2 | 64.3 | 57.2 | 60.5 | 45.9 | 40.7 | 44.4 | Warming off the lows |
| Trend | Strong-down | Weak-up | Weak-up | Weak-up | Weak-up | Strong-down | Strong-down | Digesting → breaking down |
| 30D | -11.6% | +13.17% | +12.73% | +12.66% | -3.52% | -4.91% | -7.97% | Negative, worsening |
| From 52wk Hi | -50.6% | -44.33% | -45.89% | -42.62% | -47.2% | -49.13% | -48.85% | Roughly flat |
Context (as of the 2026-06-16 refresh)
At the April 10 refresh, SOFI was approaching oversold (RSI 39.2), strong-down, death cross active, -50.6% from 52wk high. At May 29 (RSI 64.3, $18.22), the trend had fully reversed to weak-up. Now at June 16 (RSI 57.2, $17.71), the recovery has paused: a -2.8% pullback from the May peak, RSI cooling toward neutral-bullish (57 vs 64 prior), but critically the SMA20 has risen from $16.05 to $16.63 — which means the trend is consolidating with a rising floor, not breaking down.
The 3M +1.96% is the key read for the medium-term frame: essentially flat over 90 days means all the recovery came in the most recent 30-45 day window. This is a stock in a short-term recovery, not a confirmed multi-month uptrend. The -45.89% from 52wk high is still the ceiling; SOFI needs to prove the weak-up trend holds before adding conviction.
The rate macro thesis hasn't changed: SOFI's lending business (student loan refi, personal loans, mortgage) is sensitive to Fed rate policy. Any hawkish pivot re-pressures the name. The 3M barely positive (+1.96%) suggests the macro tailwind hasn't been confirmed yet — the recovery is more technical than fundamental.
Key questions:
- Did Q1 2026 show lending volume growth and improved net interest margins?
- Is the SMA20 ($16.63) holding as support on any further pullback?
- Does the 3M turn materially positive (>10%) over the next 30 days, confirming the trend?
Financial Proof
Filed-period check (as of 2026-09-28): The newest verified quarter ended 2026-06-30 and was filed 2026-08-06. Revenue was $1.22B. Source: SEC company facts and the filing. Dated historical tables below retain their own period basis.
The recent filed revenue series shows the direction of the business; missing cells are left unavailable.
| Period end | Net revenue | Filing date |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-31 | $645.0M | 2025-05-06 |
| 2024-06-30 | $598.6M | 2025-08-07 |
| 2024-09-30 | $697.1M | 2025-11-06 |
| 2025-03-31 | $771.8M | 2026-05-07 |
| 2025-06-30 | $854.9M | 2026-08-06 |
| 2025-09-30 | $961.6M | 2025-11-06 |
| 2026-03-31 | $1.10B | 2026-05-07 |
| 2026-06-30 | $1.22B | 2026-08-06 |
Research Log
| Date | Update |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | Initial deep dive — $16.17 RSI 39.2, strong-down, death cross, -50.6% from 52wk high, -11.6% 30D. "Approaching oversold. Fintech thesis under pressure." |
| 2026-05-29 | SOFI $18.22, RSI 64.3, weak-up; +13.17% 30D vs -11.6% prior; 1D +7.37%; from52wkHi -44.33% vs -50.6% prior. Trend fully reversed from strong-down to weak-up. RSI inflected from 39.2 to 64.3. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-06-16 | SOFI $17.71, RSI 57.2; vs SMA20 +6.5% ($16.63); 7D +2.15%, 30D +12.73%, 3M +1.96%; -45.89% from 52wk high. -2.8% pullback from May 29 peak; RSI cooled from 64.3 to 57.2; SMA20 rising (+$0.58 vs prior). Recovery intact; weak-up trend; consolidating. 3M barely positive — recovery is recent. Ideal re-entry at SMA20 ($16.63) if pullback occurs. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-11 | Data as of 2026-07-10 close: SOFI $18.78, RSI 60.5, weak-up (regime "downtrend," death cross persists); +6.0% from 06-16 checkpoint, +5.9% above rising SMA20 ($17.73). 30D flat at +12.66%; 3M turned materially positive at +10.15% (from +1.96%), answering the prior refresh's open question. -42.62% from 52wk high (recovered further). No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-17 | Data as of 2026-07-16 close: SOFI $17.28, RSI 45.9, weak-up (regime "downtrend"); -8.0% from 07-11 checkpoint, -3.5% below SMA20 ($17.91) — recovery reversed. 30D -3.52%, 3M -11.38% (both flipped negative). -47.2% from 52wk high (widened). No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-25 | Data as of 2026-07-24 close: SOFI $16.46, RSI 40.7, strong-down (regime "downtrend"); -4.75% from 07-17 checkpoint, -7.6% below SMA20 and -3.8% below SMA50 (new breach) for the first time in this file's recent history. 30D -4.91% (worsened), 3M -10.74% (modestly improved). -49.13% from 52wk high (widened). No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-28 | Data as of 2026-07-28 close: SOFI $16.74, RSI 44.4, strong-down (regime "downtrend"); +1.7% from 07-25 checkpoint, -5.3% below SMA20 (narrowed) and -2.5% below SMA50 (narrowed, still breached). 30D -7.97% (worsened), 3M +7.86% (swung positive, base effect). -48.85% from 52wk high (narrowed slightly). No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-31 | SOFI $16.31, RSI 44, strong-down; 7D -0.91%; 30D -11.55%; 3M -0.73%; -50.17% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-08 | SOFI $18.38, RSI 56.5, weak-up; 7D +12.69%; 30D +3.67%; 3M +16.70%; -44.24% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-14 | SOFI $18.29, RSI 55.6, weak-up; 7D -0.49%; 30D +2.35%; 3M +17.17%; -43.69% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-22 | SOFI $18.91, RSI 58.2, weak-up; 7D +3.39%; 30D +10.78%; 3M +21.06%; -42.22% from 52wk high. 1Y -18.95%, vs SMA200 -7.80%. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-28 | SOFI $18.06, RSI 49.6, weak-up; 7D -4.55%; 30D +18.43%; 3M -0.88%; -44.82% from 52wk high. 1Y -30.65%, vs SMA200 -10.8%. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-09-04 | SOFI $18.22, RSI 51.2, weak-up; 7D +0.94%; 30D -0.16%; 3M +13.66%; -44.33% from 52wk high. 1Y -28.21%, vs SMA200 -8.80%. News not pulled for this move (last fetched 2026-04-29, over four months stale). |
| 2026-09-11 | SOFI $17.32, RSI 45.3, strong-down (downgraded from weak-up); 7D -4.94%; 30D -3.46%; 3M +4.46%; -47.08% from 52wk high. 1Y -33.28%, alpha1y -49.5 — below all three moving averages for the first time in this file's recent history. News not pulled for this move (last fetched 2026-04-29, now roughly 19 weeks stale). |
| 2026-09-18 | SOFI $16.96, RSI 43.8, strong-down; 1D +1.37%; 7D -2.08%; 30D -7.93%; 3M -5.30% (turned negative); -48.18% from 52wk high, a new file low. 1Y -39.67% with alpha1y -54.68 and price -13.1% below the 200-day — a broken long trend, not a pullback. The Federal Reserve raised rates 25 basis points on 2026-09-16, the first increase since 2023, and this file's own macro section names a hawkish turn as the pressure case. News pulled 2026-09-18: an overview page, the July Q2 release (record net revenue $1.2B, net income $156.6M, EPS $0.12) and a call transcript, none dated inside this week — nothing names this move. Stock-events checked: no SOFI row dated 2026-09-12 to 2026-09-18. No newly filed period on disk — the newest filed quarter ends 2026-03-31. The undated "Context" and "Δ" sections below were date-stamped so they read as history rather than the current view. |
| 2026-09-23 | SOFI $16.55, RSI 40.8, strong-down; 1D -3.55%; 7D -1.72%; 30D -9.27%; 3M -4.39%; -49.43% from 52wk high, a new file low. 1Y -43.11% with a one-year excess return of -58.88 points and price -14.4% below the 200-day — a broken long trend. Top rewritten with a call (Out below the 200-day in a hiking cycle). Macro: yields at two-decade highs and an October hike priced (Bloomberg, CNBC, 2026-09-23). Stock-events checked: no SOFI row dated 2026-09-19 to 2026-09-23. News pulled 2026-09-22 — newest item 2026-08-07, so news not pulled for this move. No newly filed period on disk: newest filed quarter still ends 2026-03-31 (10-Q filed 2026-05-07); Q2, reported 2026-07-28, is not in the filing cache. |
| 2026-09-28 | SOFI $15.93, RSI 36.7, -7.5% vs SMA20, 30D -11.8%. The long trend is broken and the stock remains under its 200-day average; The newest verified quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-08-06); revenue was $1.22B. Against 2025-06-30 net revenue of $854.9M, that is +42.5% year over year. The news search for the latest move failed; the last completed search was on 2026-09-25. No company event for SOFI was recorded between September 24 and 28. |
Sources
- Federal Reserve decision: 2026-09-18-market-brief (25bp increase to a 3.75%–4.00% target range, 2026-09-16).
- Rates, 2026-09-23: Bloomberg, bond-market slide deepens; CNBC, market sees next Fed hike in October — captured under 2026-09-23-*.
- Q2 2026 release: SoFi, 2026-07-28.
- News receipt: latest (fetched 2026-09-22; newest item dated 2026-08-07).
- Scheduled-event check:
research/stock-events/— no SOFI row dated 2026-09-12 to 2026-09-23. - Prior-cycle history: this file's dated update log.
2026-09-28 refresh receipts
2026-09-28 settled-close receipt: *, SOFI row dated 2026-09-28; tape values above are bound to the current summary fields.
2026-09-28 financial-period check: company-facts; newest verified 2026-06-30 period, filed 2026-08-06 (SEC XBRL net revenue (bank)).
SoFi field reconciliation: the Massive generic revenue field is $153.577M for Q2, matching the SEC
RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTaxline, while filed bank net revenue is $1.218676B underRevenuesNetOfInterestExpense; this profile uses the bank net-revenue tag and does not treat the vendor line as consolidated revenue.2026-09-28 news receipt check: latest, fetched 2026-09-25; receipt is not current; latest-session cause remains unassigned.
2026-09-28 stock-event scan:
research/stock-events/, no SOFI row dated 2026-09-24 through 2026-09-28.2026-09-28 captured-follows scan: tweets has 0 September 24–28 document(s) tagging SOFI.
Retrospective social-search receipt (captured 2026-09-29): 2026-09-29-social-search-sofi; quality/attention check only, not a September 28 event or price source.
2026-09-29 browser discovery check for SOFI: news-discovery-google-sep29 (key
SOFI); search links only, not evidence of an event or of absence of news.