Article published Sep 28, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.
TSLA Price Structure
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$TSLA is stalled below its 200-day average: up 2.5% since August 28, still 9.5% under that average and down 19.4% over the past year. At the 2026-09-28 settled close, TSLA $357.45 was -2.4% versus its 20-day average and +2.5% over 30 days. The newest verified quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-07-23); revenue was $28.24B. Against 2025-06-30 revenue of $22.50B, that is +25.5% year over year. The one-year return is -19.4%, 34.7 points behind the benchmark, while price is -9.5% versus its 200-day average. The standing call is 🟡 Wait for the 200-day. Entry $385–$400 on a close above the 200-day · stop $350 · first target $450 · low conviction.
Quick Snapshot (as of 2026-09-28)
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| The call | 🟡 Wait for the 200-day. Entry $385–$400 on a close above the 200-day · stop $350 · first target $450 · low conviction |
| What is Tesla? | An electric-vehicle maker with energy storage, and an equity story priced on autonomy (Cybercab, robotaxi) and robotics. |
| Why look now? | Prior case (2026-09-23): The deep-drawdown turn that stalled a week ago resumed; a Roadster reveal is scheduled for October 1 (CNBC, September 23). |
| What is the proof? | Latest verified period ended 2026-06-30, filed 2026-07-23: revenue $28.24B. Prior case: Not in the business yet: the July Q2 report missed on earnings with negative free cash flow (the issuer press page in the September 22 news pull). |
| What is the objection? | The one-year return is -19.4%, 34.7 points behind the benchmark, while price is -9.5% versus its 200-day average. |
| Stock setup | The long trend is broken and the stock remains under its 200-day average; -2.4% versus the 20-day, -9.5% versus the 200-day, RSI 47.1. |
Action Matrix (reviewed 2026-09-28; levels are standing conditions)
| Signal | Condition | Level | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟡 Wait | Below the 200-day | 200-day, $396.34 on 2026-09-23 | The repair is not done until the long average is retaken |
| 🟢 Buy | Two closes above the 200-day | $385–$400 | Turns a turn attempt into a trend candidate |
| 🟠 Target | First target | $450 | A planning level on the way to the prior 52-week high ($499) |
| 🔴 Out | A close below the September 4 close | $354.08 | Undoes the September turn |
| 🔴 Thesis breaks | A close below $275 | $275 | Below major structure; the stated invalidation |
The Story Right Now (as of 2026-09-28)
$TSLA is stalled below its 200-day average: up 2.5% since August 28, still 9.5% under that average and down 19.4% over the past year.
Data as of 2026-09-28 close: TSLA $357.45, RSI 47.1, weak-up, -2.4% vs SMA20, -9.5% vs SMA200, 7D -4.8%, 30D +2.5%, 1Y -19.4%, -28.3% from the 52-week high.
Business and mechanism. An electric-vehicle maker with energy storage, and an equity story priced on autonomy (Cybercab, robotaxi) and robotics.
Prior case (2026-09-23). The deep-drawdown turn that stalled a week ago resumed; a Roadster reveal is scheduled for October 1 (CNBC, September 23).
Prior proof (2026-09-23). Not in the business yet: the July Q2 report missed on earnings with negative free cash flow (the issuer press page in the September 22 news pull).
The countercase. The one-year return is -19.4%, 34.7 points behind the benchmark, while price is -9.5% versus its 200-day average.
Newest statement check. The newest verified quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-07-23); revenue was $28.24B. Against 2025-06-30 revenue of $22.50B, that is +25.5% year over year.
News and attention check. The September 28 hosted pull returned five quote or earnings-calendar pages and no dated issuer event for the session. Its product and demand thesis still requires company delivery and margin evidence; the day's move is unassigned. No company event for TSLA was recorded between September 24 and 28.
The call: 🟡 Wait for the 200-day. Entry $385–$400 on a close above the 200-day · stop $350 · first target $450 · low conviction.
Extended analysis
Price Data (live — latest settled close)
A live table: every cell shows the latest settled close, named in the first row. Dated readings live in the Research Log.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| As of (settled close) | 2026-10-16 |
| Price ($) | 354.72 |
| RSI (14) | 42.2 |
| 20-day average ($) | 370.33 |
| vs 20-day (%) | -4.2 |
| 50-day average ($) | 359.46 |
| vs 50-day (%) | -1.3 |
| 200-day average ($) | 387.99 |
| vs 200-day (%) | -8.6 |
| 1D (%) | -2.13 |
| 7D (%) | -7.31 |
| 30D (%) | -0.94 |
| 3M (%) | -6.86 |
| 1Y (%) | -17.27 |
| 1Y vs benchmark (points) | -32.8 |
| From 52-week high (%) | -28.89 |
Financial Proof
Filed-period check (as of 2026-09-28): The newest verified quarter ended 2026-06-30 and was filed 2026-07-23. Revenue was $28.24B; GAAP net income was $1.13B; diluted EPS was 0.32. Source: Massive income statements and the filing. Dated historical tables below retain their own period basis.
The recent filed revenue series shows the direction of the business; missing cells are left unavailable.
| Period end | Revenue | YoY | Operating income | GAAP net income | Filing date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-30 | $25.18B | — | $2.72B | $2.18B | 2024-10-24 |
| 2025-03-31 | $19.34B | — | $399.0M | $420.0M | 2025-04-23 |
| 2025-06-30 | $22.50B | — | $923.0M | $1.19B | 2025-07-24 |
| 2025-09-30 | $28.09B | +11.6% | $1.62B | $1.39B | 2025-10-23 |
| 2026-03-31 | $22.39B | +15.8% | $941.0M | $491.0M | 2026-04-23 |
| 2026-06-30 | $28.24B | +25.5% | $398.0M | $1.13B | 2026-07-23 |
Research Log
| Date | Update |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | TSLA $435.79, RSI 60.1, up; +14.19% 30D. Death cross resolved. Entry zone $300-340 had been hit and price recovered. Flag for human review. |
| 2026-06-16 | TSLA $404.66, RSI 48.1, neutral; -1.3% 30D, +1.35% 3M. Softened; below SMA20, -18.88% from 52wkHi. No new entry signal. |
| 2026-06-26 | TSLA $379.71, RSI 41.4, strong-down; -8.46% 7D, -13.77% 30D, +4.94% 3M. Death cross re-confirmed since 06/16. Full inverted MA stack ($401/$404/$417 overhead). VWAP $396.65 also overhead. Broken-cohort alongside MSFT/ORCL/PLTR. RSI 41.4 approaching oversold but mechanical floor lower in death-cross regime. From 52wkHi deepened to -23.88%. No entry; wait for death cross resolution + RSI > 45 + SMA20 reclaim. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-11 | TSLA $407.76, RSI 51.5, +0.62% 7D, +2.16% 30D, +15.7% 3M. Reclaimed SMA20 (+1.7%), nearly flat vs SMA50 (-0.4%) and SMA200 (-2.5%) — inverted stack has closed. RSI back above the 45 re-engagement threshold set 06/26. Trend label/death-cross flag still read "strong-down"/true and appear stale vs the underlying numbers — flagged as a tape-vs-thesis divergence. From 52wkHi narrowed to -18.26%. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-17 | TSLA $380.84, RSI 42.5, strong-down; -6.6% 7D, -4.91% 30D, -2.97% 3M. Lost the SMA20 reclaim, back -4.3%/-7.1%/-8.7% below SMA20/50/200 — the inverted stack has reopened. From 52wkHi widened to -23.65%. The 07/11 tape-vs-thesis divergence has resolved toward the bearish label. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-25 | TSLA $313.03, RSI 28.1, strong-down; -17.81% 7D, -16.64% 30D, -16.81% 3M. Oversold break — -19.5%/-22.2%/-24.5% below SMA20/50/200, regime shifted from pullback to collapse. From 52wkHi widened to -35.91%. Recent developments: TSLA fell 13% Thursday after reaffirming plans to sharply increase AI infrastructure spending (FinanceCharts, 2026-07-24); Tesla also disclosed a $1.95B AI hardware acquisition with undisclosed terms (The Electric Viking, 2026-07-25). No insider-buying attribution found in the available news file. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-28 | TSLA $307.44, RSI 27.4, strong-down; -18.87% 7D, -25.35% 30D, -17.53% 3M. Oversold break has held, not stabilized — SMA gaps roughly flat vs 07/25, regime remains collapse. From 52wkHi widened to -38.37%. No new news identified attributing this session's move; no new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-31 | TSLA $311.21, RSI 31.9, strong-down; 7D -0.58%; 30D -26.83%; 3M -20.37%; -37.61% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-08 | TSLA $328.58, RSI 41.5, strong-down; 7D +5.58%; 30D -16.62%; 3M -23.29%; -35.54% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-14 | TSLA $342.27, RSI 48.7, strong-down; 7D +4.17%; 30D -13.23%; 3M -18.94%; -31.85% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-22 | TSLA $362.86, RSI 58.0, strong-down; 7D +6.02%; 30D -2.98%; 3M -14.82%; -27.26% from 52wk high. 1Y +13.35%, vs SMA200 -10.00%. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-28 | TSLA $348.75, RSI 50.9, strong-down; 7D -3.89%; 30D +16.90%; 3M -19.97%; -30.09% from 52wk high. 1Y +0.80%, vs SMA200 -13.0%. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-09-04 | TSLA $354.08, RSI 50.9, strong-down; 7D +1.49%; 30D +10.12%; 3M -9.44%; -29.02% from 52wk high. 1Y +4.59%, vs SMA200 -11.40%. News pulled 2026-09-04: a Cybercab-launch rally (2026-09-03, coverage says shares +5%) and an EPA-range-increase item (08-31) predate the 1-day reading below — the stock gave back the Cybercab pop into a broader Friday tech pullback. No TSLA-specific news explains the Friday drop itself. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-09-11 | TSLA $365.44, RSI 54.5, weak-up (upgraded from strong-down); 7D +3.21%; 30D +11.58%; 3M -10.09%; -26.74% from 52wk high. 1Y -0.91% (turned negative), alpha1y -17.13. Price is now above SMA10/20/50 but still -8.4% below SMA200; death cross flag remains true. News pulled 2026-09-11 (fresh): CNBC frames continued negative Cybercab-event sentiment, in tension with the actually-positive 7D/30D tape this cycle — sentiment context, not price truth. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-09-18 | TSLA $364.27, RSI 53.8, weak-up; 1D -0.53%; 7D -0.32%; 30D +3.75%; 3M -9.04%; -26.98% from 52wk high. 1Y -12.61% with alpha1y -27.63 and price -8.3% below the 200-day with the death cross still open — a broken long trend attempting repair, and this week the attempt stalled. The name was dropped from the desk's deep-drawdown turn screen on that basis. News pulled 2026-09-18: a September 11 item reporting Musk's confirmation of a Roadster unveiling scheduled for October 1, a September 6 item on the stock stalling below $381 with insider selling by the CFO, and the July Q2 call; nothing dated names this week's flat tape. One aggregator quote page in the pull prints a "+8.12" figure that does not reconcile with the settled close and was not used. Stock-events checked: no TSLA row dated 2026-09-12 to 2026-09-18. No newly filed period on disk — the newest filed quarter ends 2026-03-31, filed 2026-04-23. | | 2026-09-23 | TSLA $380.12, RSI 60.6, weak-up; 1D +0.32%; 7D +6.16%; 30D +8.93%; 3M +1.22%; -23.80% from 52wk high. 1Y -10.74% with a one-year excess return of -26.51 points and price -4.1% below the 200-day, 50-day still under the 200-day — the turn resumed but the long trend is still broken. Top rewritten with a 200-day-reclaim call; the old $340–$370 zone was retired. Roadster reveal scheduled for 2026-10-01 (CNBC, 2026-09-23). Stock-events checked: no TSLA row dated 2026-09-19 to 2026-09-23. News pulled 2026-09-22 (index pages, issuer press page) — no dated cause for the week. No newly filed period on disk: newest filed quarter still ends 2026-03-31 (10-Q filed 2026-04-23); the Q2 quarter reported in July is not in the filing cache. | | 2026-09-28 | TSLA $357.45, RSI 47.1, -2.4% vs SMA20, 30D +2.5%. The long trend is broken and the stock remains under its 200-day average; The newest verified quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-07-23); revenue was $28.24B. Against 2025-06-30 revenue of $22.50B, that is +25.5% year over year. The September 28 hosted pull returned five quote or earnings-calendar pages and no dated issuer event for the session. Its product and demand thesis still requires company delivery and margin evidence; the day's move is unassigned. No company event for TSLA was recorded between September 24 and 28. |
Sources
- Turn-screen status: 2026-09-18-washout-scan.
- News receipt: latest (fetched 2026-09-22; index pages plus the issuer press page).
- Roadster reveal: CNBC, 2026-09-23; Musk on chips in space: Yahoo Finance, 2026-09-20 — both captured under articles.
- Scheduled-event check:
research/stock-events/— no TSLA row dated 2026-09-12 to 2026-09-23. - Prior-cycle history: this file's dated update log.
2026-09-28 refresh receipts
2026-09-28 settled-close receipt: *, TSLA row dated 2026-09-28; tape values above are bound to the current summary fields.
2026-09-28 financial-period check: income-statements and key-financials; newest verified 2026-06-30 period, filed 2026-07-23 (Massive statement / SEC period cross-check).
2026-09-28 news receipt check: latest, fetched 2026-09-28; fresh successful receipt; event-quality review summarized above.
2026-09-28 stock-event scan:
research/stock-events/, no TSLA row dated 2026-09-24 through 2026-09-28.2026-09-28 captured-follows scan: tweets has 0 September 24–28 document(s) tagging TSLA.
Retrospective social-search receipt (captured 2026-09-29): 2026-09-29-social-search-tsla; quality/attention check only, not a September 28 event or price source.