🔥 Hot Signals
Article
🔥 Hot Signals
🔥 Hot Signals — 2026-09-29
Auto-generated rollup. One pull, not five.
Sources:
exit-check,persona-consensus,convergence-db --min=2,monster-scan,entry-volume-scan,breakout-volume-scan,distribution-scan,capture-health, optionalregime-signals.Generated in 1586ms — pure aggregation, no fresh scans.
🟢 Capture health
30 sources · 23 fresh · 6 stale · 1 no captures (threshold 7d)
⚠ Stale sources mean profile + chorus output is operating on old captures. Run
deno task intake:harvestor per-source scrapers to refresh.
| Source | Type | Last capture | Days stale |
|---|---|---|---|
| dumb-money-live | podcast | 2026-03-24 | 190d |
| thediff | rss | 2026-04-29 | 154d |
| sherwood | rss | 2026-08-17 | 44d |
| phynvesting | rss | 2026-09-11 | 19d |
| warontherocks | rss | 2026-09-22 | 8d |
| nuttycld | rss | 2026-09-22 | 8d |
| SecurityAnalysis | — | — |
📊 At a glance
- 0 SELL verdicts • 18 TRIM verdicts (17 from perspective fade)
- 15 convergent bull setups (3+ personas long, no shorts) • 0 divergent
- 3 tickers in 3+ independent traces
- 12 parabolic monsters (golden cross + 50%+ above SMA200)
- 2 risk-on regime gauges • 1 risk-off • 0 blocked
Regime gauges — 2026-09-29
| Gauge | State | Band | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLD vs UUP inverse | gold_breakdown_dollar_firm | risk_on | -8.38 30d spread pct pts |
| VIXY fear proxy | vol_compressed | risk_on | -58 pct from 52w high |
| Broad-market ETF breadth | short_term_fragile | risk_off | 40 pct above SMA50 |
🟠 TRIM — 18 positions
17 of these are perspective-fading — originating thesis closing/resolved:
- XLU (bench-signals, -12.1%) — All originating theses fading — The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- XLU (bench-signals-trail, -12.1%) — All originating theses fading — The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- GLD (bench-signals, -8.2%) — All originating theses fading — The Gold Anomaly — Broken Safe Haven (closed). Review whether to hold.
- GLD (conviction, -7.7%) — All originating theses fading — The Gold Anomaly — Broken Safe Haven (closed). Review whether to hold.
- TLT (conviction, -5.0%) — All originating theses fading — SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (bench-signals, -0.2%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (bench-signals-trail, -0.2%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- APD (bench-signals, +0.2%) — All originating theses fading — Gulf Infrastructure Strike Scenario (closed). Review whether to hold.
- INDA (bench-signals, +0.7%) — All originating theses fading — Gulf Infrastructure Strike Scenario (closed). Review whether to hold.
- SPY (dca-larry, +5.6%) — All originating theses fading — AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed); The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (claude-trader, +6.0%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (bench-signals, +7.6%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (yolo, +7.6%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (claude-trader, +8.6%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (conviction, +9.0%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- QQQ (dca-larry, +9.9%) — All originating theses fading — AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed); The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- META (bench-signals-trail, +34.4%) — All originating theses fading — SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
Other trims (rule-based):
| Ticker | Strategy | P&L | Rule | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GILD | yolo | +16.0% | partial-profit |
+16.0% — consider partial at +15% (CRSP lesson: was +16.2%, reversed to -4.8%). |
🎯 Convergent bulls — 15
Tickers held long by 3+ personas with no shorts. Persona-level consensus signal.
| Ticker | # bulls | Avg P&L | Long strategies |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 11 | +8.4% | ackman-13f, atreides-13f, bench-signals (tier: HIGH), bench-signals-trail (tier: MEDIUM), claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM)... |
| SPCX | 6 | -12.7% | altimeter-13f, atreides-13f, coatue-13f, greenoaks-13f, loeb-13f (tier: LOW)... |
| GOOGL | 11 | +5.3% | altimeter-13f, atreides-13f, bench-signals (tier: HIGH), buffett-13f, claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM)... |
| MU | 5 | +49.8% | altimeter-13f, aschenbrenner-13f (tier: LOW), coatue-13f, gottheimer-trades (tier: LOW), tepper-13f |
| NVDA | 7 | +13.1% | altimeter-13f, bench-signals (tier: HIGH), claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM), conviction (tier: MEDIUM), khanna-trades (tier: LOW)... |
| SNDK | 3 | +100.1% | aschenbrenner-13f (tier: LOW), druckenmiller-13f (tier: MEDIUM), gottheimer-trades (tier: LOW) |
| AVGO | 6 | +0.8% | bench-signals (tier: HIGH), claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM), khanna-trades (tier: LOW), pelosi-trades (tier: LOW), tepper-13f... |
| DHR | 4 | +14.3% | conviction (tier: MEDIUM), druckenmiller-13f (tier: MEDIUM), loeb-13f (tier: LOW), mccaul-trades |
| TSM | 7 | +9.6% | altimeter-13f, aschenbrenner-13f (tier: LOW), coatue-13f, druckenmiller-13f (tier: MEDIUM), greenoaks-13f... |
| MSFT | 3 | +18.4% | ackman-13f, coatue-13f, conviction (tier: MEDIUM) |
| UBER | 4 | -2.1% | altimeter-13f, khanna-trades (tier: LOW), pelosi-trades (tier: LOW), tepper-13f |
| META | 5 | +25.9% | ackman-13f, altimeter-13f, atreides-13f, bench-signals-trail (tier: MEDIUM), tepper-13f |
| CVS | 5 | -6.4% | bench-signals (tier: HIGH), bench-signals-trail (tier: MEDIUM), claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM), claude-trader-trail (tier: LOW), yolo (tier: HIGH) |
| INTC | 3 | +39.6% | atreides-13f, coatue-13f, pelosi-trades (tier: LOW) |
| PANW | 3 | +57.1% | atreides-13f, druckenmiller-13f (tier: MEDIUM), gottheimer-trades (tier: LOW) |
🌐 Cross-thesis hits — 3
Tickers surfaced by 3+ independent autonomous-research traces. The "shows up everywhere" signal.
| Ticker | Company | # traces | Theses |
|---|---|---|---|
| COHR | Coherent Corp (formerly II-VI) | 4 | quantum computing physical bot...; military drone supply chain an...; HBM high-bandwidth memory equi... |
| LIN | Linde plc | 3 | quantum computing physical bot...; LNG liquefaction shipping and ...; helium supply chain for semico... |
| APD | Air Products and Chemicals | 3 | quantum computing physical bot...; LNG liquefaction shipping and ...; helium supply chain for semico... |
🚀 Monsters — top 12
Parabolic stocks: golden cross + 50%+ above SMA200. Top by 3-month change.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 3M | 30D | vs SMA200 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BWET | $739.20 | 60.2 | +398.2% | +73.4% | +270% |
| ZCSH | $111.00 | 63.7 | +314.2% | +73.2% | +201% |
| IOVA | $14.45 | 86.4 | +247.4% | +80.4% | +218% |
| MRNA | $203.46 | 76.4 | +190.5% | +47.5% | +208% |
| ASST | $29.31 | 67.9 | +168.7% | +34.8% | +91% |
| TXG | $90.04 | 77.0 | +134.8% | +46.3% | +168% |
| KOD | $91.12 | 90.0 | +133.9% | +141.6% | +164% |
| TEAM | $175.96 | 47.7 | +126.2% | -7.6% | +57% |
| CDNA | $64.02 | 77.9 | +124.6% | +28.6% | +128% |
| ATRC | $58.05 | 66.6 | +107.5% | +19.6% | +61% |
| GRAL | $136.57 | 88.9 | +100.0% | +70.7% | +87% |
| LINK-USD | $14.45 | 63.9 | +96.6% | +27.6% | +53% |
🎯 Entry + Volume setups — top 4
Good entry zone (uptrend, not extended, at a volume shelf) AND volume confirming. The dip-at-shelf buy radar.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA200 | Froth | RelVol | Zone | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | $87.85 | 38 | +0.3% | +2.8% | 1.8× | POC | macro-commodities |
| AES | $14.86 | 62 | +1.3% | +2.0% | 1.8× | POC | electricity, thebuildout-renewable-energy-hyperscaler-ppas |
| XLF | $54.01 | 28 | +0.5% | +1.6% | 1.5× | VA | financials, market-pulse |
| IWO | $357.32 | 34 | +0.2% | +2.6% | 1.6× | VA | etf-monster-universe |
⚠️ Distribution / trim watch — top 7
Mechanism: high-volume churn while EXTENDED (overbought + stretched). Running hot — trim into strength, don't add. ⤵ = rolling over on volume.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | Froth | vs SMA20 | RelVol | 7D | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IOVA (also in monsters — extension + churn) | $14.45 | 86 | +229.7% | +48.0% | 5.6× | +35.8% | monster-discoveries |
| ABCL | $14.82 | 77 | +143.6% | +23.1% | 2.1× | +17.1% | biotech-capital-cycle, holdings-stocks |
| KOD (also in monsters — extension + churn) | $91.12 | 90 | +128.2% | +130.8% | 2.2× | +169.6% | monster-discoveries |
| QSI | $0.96 | 71 | -30.8% | +24.5% | 15.2× | +23.1% | biotech-capital-cycle |
| DNA | $11.96 | 77 | +29.4% | +48.4% | 3.0× | +27.6% | biotech-capital-cycle, biotech-scan |
| PACB | $1.83 | 74 | +8.1% | +29.8% | 2.6× | +24.5% | biotech-capital-cycle, ibb |
| AVAX-USD | $11.40 | 71 | -12.4% | +22.3% | 2.0× | +11.0% | crypto |
Sources
research/market-engine/data/summaries/*.json(precomputed settled-close summaries — all prices/RSI/percentages above)
Re-run with deno task hot-signal-rollup.
No direct external sources are attached to this read.