Lilly's Sales Rose 51% in the First Half; Its Raised Guidance Implies 14% to 20% in the Second

Article published Sep 29, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.

LLY Price Structure

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Lilly is doing well, not cratering: revenue has grown between 37.6% and 55.5% a year in each of the last six quarters (SEC), and the stock is up 63.08% on the year and 10.6% above its 200-day average. It has also gone sideways for 17 weeks. The shares closed at $1,280.34 on August 19, two weeks after a beat-and-raise second quarter, gave all of it back by September 11, and have climbed back to the 50-day. The raised revenue range of $85–87 billion implies second-half growth of 14% to 20%, against 51% in the first half, and the June quarter leaned on rebate-estimate adjustments. The call is buy, medium conviction: enter between $1,160 and $1,197, stop at $1,110 under the September low, first target $1,292, with the October 29 report inside the window.

Data as of 2026-09-28 close: LLY $1,184.78, RSI 56, +2.9% vs SMA20, +0.6% vs SMA50, +10.6% vs SMA200, 7D +1.71%, 30D +0.87%, 3M −3.67%, 1Y +63.08%, −8.34% from the 52-week high, volume 0.84× average.

Business facts come from Lilly's 2025 10-K and June-quarter 10-Q. The raised revenue range is as reported by Endpoints; the earnings release text is not on file. X posts cited below are attributed context, not evidence.

Quick Snapshot (as of 2026-09-28)

Question	Answer
The call	🟢 Buy the flag between $1,160 and $1,197 while the September low holds. Entry $1,160–$1,197 · stop $1,110 · first target $1,292 · medium conviction.
What it is	The drugmaker whose market value now exceeds every other healthcare company's (Endpoints). Tirzepatide, sold as Mounjaro for diabetes and Zepbound for obesity, was 65% of first-half revenue (10-Q). Verzenio, Jardiance, Trulicity and Taltz follow, plus the new oral GLP-1 pill Foundayo.
Why now	Second-quarter revenue was $22.97 billion, up 48%: volume +60%, realized price −13%, currency +1 (10-Q). The full-year revenue range went to $85–87 billion (Endpoints). Medicare access to discounted Lilly obesity drugs began July 1, so the September quarter is the first with it.
Proof	First-half revenue $42.77 billion, +51%. First-half operating cash flow $16.02 billion against $4.75 billion a year earlier. Gross margin 85.8% in the quarter against 84.3%. Mounjaro sold $5.15 billion outside the U.S. in the quarter, up from $1.90 billion (10-Q).
Objection	Growth is volume bought with price: realized price fell 36% outside the U.S. after Mounjaro joined China's national reimbursement list, and U.S. price declines were partly offset by rebate-estimate adjustments (10-Q). The guidance implies a slower second half. Two brands carry 65% of revenue. The stock trades near 40 times trailing GAAP earnings.
Stock setup	A 17-week base inside an intact uptrend: up 63.08% on the year, 10.6% above the 200-day. The base pivot is $1,292.65; the September 11 close of $1,115.70 is the low. The price sits on the 50-day ($1,177.53) and just under the top of the one-year value area ($1,196.56).

Action Matrix (as of 2026-09-28)

Signal	If	Then
🟢 Buy	A daily close between $1,160 and $1,197 while the September 11 close ($1,115.70) holds	Entry $1,160–$1,197. The zone runs from the support shelf ($1,160.52) to the top of the one-year value area ($1,196.56), with the 50-day ($1,177.53) inside it.
🟡 Wait	Price above $1,197 and below $1,292.65	Do not chase into the August range; let it come back to the zone.
🔴 Out	A daily close below $1,110	The September low failed. Stand aside, and do not widen the stop to the 200-day ($1,071.11). A gap on the October 29 report can open below the stop.
🟠 Target	$1,292	Trim or trail at the base pivot ($1,292.65), just above the August 19 close of $1,280.34. A close above it on rising volume restarts the trend leg; trail rather than sell.
🔴 Thesis breaks	The October 29 report cuts the $85–87 billion revenue range, or U.S. tirzepatide volume growth stalls in the first quarter of Medicare access	The volume engine is slowing faster than price cuts can be absorbed.

The Story Right Now (as of 2026-09-28)

Lilly is doing well, not cratering: revenue grew 47.7% in the June quarter and 49.6% over the trailing twelve months (SEC, reconciled against Massive), and the stock is up 63.08% on the year. The stock has not moved with the business since June: it is down 3.67% over three months.

The beat-and-raise rally faded. Lilly closed at $1,148.84 on July 31 and reported on August 5. The shares closed at $1,280.34 on August 19, about 1% under the 52-week high. By September 11 they closed at $1,115.70, 14% off the high. September 8 was a bad day for drug stocks, with Novartis down 10% on trial setbacks and a generic-drug tariff threat in the news (CNBC); nothing on file explains the rest of the slide. The long trend held: the price stayed above its 200-day the whole way. The recovery came in small steps. Lilly rose 1.04% on September 21 as Novo Nordisk's U.S. ADR ($NVO) fell 7.96% on its 2030 targets, and 2.68% on September 24 as Viking ($VKTX) fell on a financing (the September 21 and 24 market briefs).

The guidance implies a slower second half. Endpoints reported the full-year revenue range raised to $85–87 billion. First-half revenue was $42.77 billion, so the range implies $42.2–44.2 billion for July through December. That is 14% to 20% above the second half of 2025, against 51% growth in the first half. It is also 4% to 8% below two more quarters at June's pace (script-computed). Part of the gap is the June quarter itself. The 10-Q says lower U.S. realized prices on Zepbound and Mounjaro were "partially offset by adjustments to estimates for rebates and discounts." Investing.com's summary of the slides says management flagged that some of those rebate benefits will not repeat (attributed; the slides are not on file). Lilly has raised its outlook at both 2026 reports (Yahoo Finance for April, Endpoints for August). A range that implies this much slowing leaves room for a third raise on October 29; it also matches a stock that has gone sideways since June.

The volume engine has three new inputs.

Medicare. Under the GLP-1 Bridge program, Medicare patients got discounted Lilly obesity drugs from July 1, 2026 through the end of 2027. The 10-Q says "the uptake from this expanded access is unknown."
The pill. Foundayo (orforglipron) won FDA approval for obesity and launched in the second quarter. Barron's reported the shares slipping on weak early prescription data on April 27. On September 21 CNBC reported the CEO saying one-third of new GLP-1 pill patients are taking Foundayo.
Outside the U.S. Revenue there rose 80% in the quarter on volume up 113% and price down 36%, and is now 37% of the total (10-Q, script-computed share).

The 13F that put Lilly in the news is a token. A September 26 X post listed Lilly among new positions in Stanley Druckenmiller's Duquesne Family Office. Its June-quarter 13F does show a new stake: 12,380 shares, reported at about $14.8 million, 0.28% of the filing's reported value and 67th of 95 rows. The post's 603,000 shares is the Delta Air Lines row. The filing is three months stale at period end and was public six weeks before the post. It is a reason to look, not a reason to buy.

The call: buy, medium conviction. The entry is the flag inside the base, not a breakout. The zone runs from the $1,160.52 support shelf to the $1,196.56 top of the one-year value area, with the 50-day inside it. The stop at $1,110 sits just under the September 11 close. That is 4.3% below the bottom of the zone, 7.3% below its top, and 6.3% below the September 28 close (script-computed). It is structural and close, not the 200-day 9.6% below. The first target, $1,292, is the base pivot, 9.1% above the close. There, trim or trail.

Conviction is medium because of three things:

the October 29 report lands inside the window, and a gap can open below the stop
the second-half guide already implies slowing
the stock gave back its whole post-report rally within five weeks in August and September

Two things would raise it:

a third revenue raise on October 29 with U.S. volume growth intact in the first Medicare quarter
a close above $1,292.65

A close below $1,110 or a cut to the range ends it.

Extended analysis

Summary

Lilly sells incretin drugs, injectable and now oral medicines that mimic gut hormones to lower blood sugar and appetite. Tirzepatide, which acts on two such hormone receptors (GIP and GLP-1), is sold as Mounjaro and Zepbound. It made $14.87 billion in the June quarter, about 65% of revenue (10-Q). The rest of the portfolio covers breast cancer (Verzenio), diabetes (Jardiance with Boehringer Ingelheim, Trulicity), psoriasis (Taltz) and Alzheimer's disease (Kisunla).

The customer problem is scale: obesity is chronic, most payers outside the U.S. do not cover it, and supply was short through 2024. Lilly's answer has been volume at lower prices. That means cash-pay sales through its own LillyDirect channel, national reimbursement in China, and discounted Medicare access under its U.S. pricing agreements.

The decisive uncertainty is the trade between volume and price. Volume rose 60% in the June quarter and price fell 13%. The second-half guide says that trade gets less favorable before the next products arrive: retatrutide, a triple-hormone injectable whose Phase 3 obesity trials met their primary endpoints, and oral Foundayo in diabetes.

Why This Moment Is Different

Medicare is open. From July 1, Medicare patients can get discounted Lilly obesity drugs under the Bridge program, through December 31, 2027 (10-Q). The October 29 report is the first to include it. Lilly calls the uptake unknown.
The pill is on the market. Foundayo is the first oral drug in Lilly's obesity line. Lilly has also filed it for type 2 diabetes in the U.S., the EU and Japan (10-Q).
Price is falling on purpose. China's reimbursement listing cut Mounjaro's price outside the U.S. while volume more than doubled. The U.S. cash-pay price cuts show in Zepbound's "lower realized prices" (10-Q). Lilly's "most favored nation" agreement with the administration suggests it will give the U.S. government a share of revenue from raising prices abroad (Endpoints, September 21).
Lilly is buying a second pipeline. It paid $13.3 billion for acquisitions in the first half: Centessa, Kelonia, Orna, Ventyx and Ajax (10-Q). About $2.0 billion followed in July for infectious-disease companies, plus AtaiBeckley at about $2.8 billion. Endpoints counted Merida Biosciences, for up to $2.875 billion, as the 13th acquisition of 2026 (August 31). The spending reaches beyond obesity into sleep, psychiatry, oncology and immunology.

How the Business Makes Money

June-quarter revenue by product (10-Q, $ millions):

Product	U.S.	Outside U.S.	Total	Year earlier	Change
Mounjaro	4,791	5,152	9,943	5,199	+91%
Zepbound	4,873	55	4,928	3,381	+46%
Verzenio	845	629	1,474	1,489	−1%
Jardiance	616	615	1,232	690	+79%
Trulicity	908	312	1,219	1,092	+12%
Taltz	539	317	856	848	+1%
Other	1,842	1,481	3,322	2,859	+16%
Total	14,413	8,561	22,974	15,558	+48%

Concentration is rising. Mounjaro and Zepbound were 56% of 2025 revenue (10-K) and 65% of the first half of 2026 (10-Q). The 10-K lists six products above $3 billion a year that together made 82% of 2025 revenue.
Channel. In the U.S. most product goes through three wholesalers, McKesson, Cencora and Cardinal Health, each 16% to 24% of 2025 revenue (10-K). LillyDirect, the company's direct-to-patient platform, dispenses through third-party pharmacies. The 10-K says patient self-pay sales through it were "a growing portion of our business."
Exclusivity. Tirzepatide's compound patent runs to 2036 in the U.S., 2037 in major European countries and 2040 in Japan; U.S. data protection ends in 2027 (10-K). Trulicity's U.S. compound patent ends in 2027.
Government price-setting. Under the Inflation Reduction Act, Medicare-set prices apply to Jardiance from 2026 and to Trulicity and Verzenio from 2028. Lilly "expect[s] other significant products will be selected in future years" (10-Q).
Manufacturing. Capital spending on property and equipment was $7.84 billion in 2025 and $5.26 billion in the first half of 2026 (SEC). The 10-Q says capital spending will be "meaningfully higher" in the near term. The 10-K discloses up to about $10 billion of contract-manufacturing and supply commitments if Lilly does not buy specified volumes.
Top filed risks (10-K and 10-Q):
- competition in incretins
- U.S. pricing policy and pharmacy-benefit-manager leverage
- counterfeit and mass-compounded tirzepatide
- tariffs on pharmaceuticals, from which Lilly is currently exempt in some cases
- regulatory scrutiny of acquisitions

What the Company Says It Is Becoming

The 10-Q expects "cardiometabolic health products will continue to represent a significant and growing portion of our business." It ties near-term results to "the timing of additional potential regulatory approvals for orforglipron" and "the pace of uptake in new incretin channels and markets, including in U.S. Medicare."

The pipeline updates in the June 10-Q:

Retatrutide. Phase 3 obesity trials and a type 2 diabetes trial met their primary endpoints. Endpoints puts its Phase 3 weight loss at up to 25% (August 20).
Eloralintide. An amylin-based drug, now in Phase 3 as an incretin add-on for obesity, for sleep apnea and for osteoarthritis pain.
Brenipatide. Phase 3 in major depression.
Sofetabart mipitecan. Phase 3 in ovarian cancer, with Breakthrough Therapy designation.

Approvals since the June quarter:

a heart-risk indication for Mounjaro (August 28)
the Inluriyo combination in second-line breast cancer (September 18)
Onswik, a once-weekly basal insulin (September 24, all Endpoints)

Lilly also stopped disclosing its Phase 1 pipeline, which Endpoints reported drew mixed reviews (August 27).

The balance sheet is funding the buying. Total debt rose to $54.9 billion at June 30 from $42.5 billion at year-end, including a $9.0 billion May bond issue (10-Q). Cash was $8.95 billion. Lilly also bought back $4.0 billion of stock in the first half, leaving $7.0 billion on its authorization, and paid $3.1 billion of dividends.

What the Street and Public Conversation Say

Coverage agrees Lilly is winning the category; almost none of it prices the second half.

The lead. CNBC (September 25): as Novo works on a turnaround, "some analysts say Lilly has advantages that could help it maintain its position at the top of the obesity drug market." Endpoints headlined the June quarter "Lilly once again beats expectations as tirzepatide accounts for 64% of revenue." It put revenue about $3 billion above estimates.
The print. Non-GAAP EPS was $8.38 against a $6.58 consensus (providers' earnings records). CNBC's Investing Club raised its price target after "another beat-and-raise quarter" (August 5).
Competition.
- Novo released low-dose CagriSema data it presented as competitive with Mounjaro, ahead of an approval decision (Endpoints, September 21).
- Viking's VK2735 kept weight off with once-a-month dosing in a maintenance trial (MarketWatch, September 22).
- Lilly sued six U.S. companies for selling gray-market retatrutide, a drug still in trials (Endpoints, August 12).
Legal. A jury awarded Nektar $90 million against Lilly over a broken licensing deal, "a far smaller sum than was sought" (Endpoints, September 25).
Insiders. Three executives sold 13,500 shares worth about $16.0 million between August 10 and 18, per their Form 4s. The largest was 6,500 shares ($7.64 million) by the head of Lilly International on August 17. The rest of the recent Form 4s are small stock awards to directors and gifts; none is an open-market purchase. The providers' insider feed nets about $3.0 billion of selling over its window, which the Form 4s on file do not break down.
Social. Public discussion is thin. Hacker News, Reddit and YouTube returned nothing on Lilly, and the X posts on file only list the stock: in a sector watchlist for 2027 (@MMatters22596) and in a midterm-year health-care playbook (@RealJGBanks). The Druckenmiller thread (@drayinvests) misstated the share count. No independent work on the second-half guide is on file.

The Conviction Chain

Link	Evidence	Confirms	Breaks
Tirzepatide volume keeps compounding	Q2 volume +60%; Mounjaro +91%, Zepbound +46% (10-Q)	U.S. volume growth holds in the Medicare quarter	U.S. prescriptions flatten as cash-pay demand saturates
Lower prices widen the market more than they cost	Price −13% vs volume +60% in Q2; gross margin up to 85.8%	Gross margin holds near 85% as price falls	Gross margin falls with price and the guide is cut
The second-half guide is conservative	Raised at both 2026 reports; implied H2 growth of 14–20%	Third raise on October 29	Range cut, or held while rebate benefits reverse
The next products arrive on time	Foundayo approved; retatrutide Phase 3 met endpoints; eloralintide in Phase 3	Foundayo diabetes approval; retatrutide filing	A safety signal or slow Foundayo uptake
Deal spending builds a second engine without straining the balance sheet	$13.3B paid for acquisitions in H1; debt $54.9B; H1 operating cash flow $16.02B	Cash flow covers deals and capital spending	More debt-funded deals while cash flow slows
The tape confirms	17-week base above the 200-day; back at the 50-day	Holds $1,160–$1,197, then closes above $1,292.65	Close below $1,110

Weakest link: whether the second-half guide is conservative or accurate. If it is accurate, growth falls from about 50% to under 20% within two quarters, and a stock near 40 times trailing GAAP earnings has less to stand on. The October 29 report settles it.

Financial Proof

Quarter	Revenue ($M)	YoY	QoQ	Gross margin	Net income ($M)	Net margin	Diluted EPS, GAAP ($)	Acquired IPR&D ($M)	Source
Q1 2025	12,729	+45.2%	−5.9%	82.5%	2,759	21.7%	3.06	1,572	SEC 10-Q; Massive
Q2 2025	15,558	+37.6%	+22.2%	84.3%	5,661	36.4%	6.29	154	SEC 10-Q; Massive
Q3 2025	17,601	+53.9%	+13.1%	82.9%	5,582	31.7%	6.21	656	SEC 10-Q; Massive
Q4 2025	19,292	+42.6%	+9.6%	82.5%	6,638	34.4%	7.39	529	SEC 10-K less 9M; Massive
Q1 2026	19,799	+55.5%	+2.6%	81.9%	7,396	37.4%	8.26	584	SEC 10-Q; Massive
Q2 2026	22,974	+47.7%	+16.0%	85.8%	7,095	30.9%	7.94	2,776	SEC 10-Q; Massive

Growth, margins and the fourth quarter are script-computed from SEC XBRL; gross margin uses Massive's gross profit, which matches the 10-Q's 85.8% and 84.3% for the June quarters.

Revenue growth has stayed between 38% and 56% for six quarters; profit swings with acquisitions. Lilly expenses in-process research bought in asset acquisitions at once, so those deals land in a single quarter. The June quarter carried $2.78 billion for Orna and Ajax plus $703 million of acquisition-related special charges, and the tax rate rose to 23.3% from 16.5% because the research charges are not deductible. That is why GAAP net income rose 25% while revenue rose 48%. Research spending rose 14% and marketing and administration 25%, the latter for launches (10-Q). Fiscal 2025 net margin was 31.7% (SEC, reconciled).

Cash flow (SEC, script-computed):

Period	Operating cash flow ($M)	Property and equipment ($M)	Free cash flow ($M)	Source
FY2025	16,813	7,841	8,972	SEC 10-K
H1 2025	4,753	3,207	1,546	SEC 10-Q
H1 2026	16,023	5,259	10,764	SEC 10-Q

First-half operating cash flow nearly matched all of 2025. Quarterly cash flow is lumpy: the de-cumulated quarters run from $1.67 billion to $10.69 billion, so read the half-years. Free cash flow here excludes acquisition payments.

In the first half Lilly paid $13.3 billion for acquisitions, $4.0 billion for buybacks and $3.1 billion in dividends. Together those exceeded the half's free cash flow, and new debt covered the gap.

Valuation. At the September 28 close the market value is about $1.06 trillion (Yahoo Finance share count as of August 11, repriced to the close). Trailing-twelve-month GAAP diluted EPS is $29.80, about 40 times (script-computed from SEC quarters). Those quarters carry about $4.5 billion of acquired-research charges, so the multiple on underlying earnings is lower.

Stock Setup

Tape (live):

Measure	LLY
As of	2026-09-29
Price ($)	1184.63
RSI (14, Wilder)	56
1D (%)	-0.01
7D (%)	1.24
30D (%)	0.85
3M (%)	-1.23
1Y (%)	63.06
2Y (%)	33.71
3Y (%)	120.55
1Y vs S&P 500 (points)	47.91
3Y vs S&P 500 (points)	41.78
vs 20-day (%)	2.8
vs 50-day (%)	0.5
vs 200-day (%)	10.5
Off 52-week high (%)	-8.36
Volume vs average (×)	0.71

Levels (live):

Level	Price ($)
One-year value area, top	1196.56
50-day average	1178.28
Support shelf	1160.52
20-day average	1152.71
200-day average	1072.06
One-year most-traded price	1064.42
Anchored VWAP from the low	1029.66
One-year value area, bottom	908.27

Obesity-drug peers (live):

Name	As of	Price ($)	3M (%)	1Y (%)	vs 200-day (%)	Off 52w high (%)
Eli Lilly (LLY)	2026-09-29	1184.63	-1.23	63.06	10.5	-8.36
Novo Nordisk ADR (NVO)	2026-09-29	38.31	-20.09	-30.97	-16.4	-40.29
Viking Therapeutics (VKTX)	2026-09-29	31.81	-18.46	23.25	-4.3	-26.28
Amgen (AMGN)	2026-09-29	423.64	16.99	54.63	16.6	-5.23

Horizon read as of September 28. The long trend is intact. Lilly is up 63.08% on the year, 47.72 points ahead of the S&P 500, and 10.6% above a rising 200-day ($1,071.11) with the 50-day above it. The two-year gain (+34.97%) is smaller than the one-year, so the stock was lower a year ago than two years ago.

The base is the flag in the bottom → pop → flag → breakout shape. The low was the September 11 close of $1,115.70. The pop took the price back to the 50-day by September 28. The zone under the value-area top is where the flag forms, and the breakout is a close above $1,292.65.

Most of the past year's volume changed hands far lower: the most-traded price is $1,064.42. The August range between $1,197 and $1,292.65 is the nearest overhead supply.

It is not a washout: the drawdown peaked at 14%, the price never lost the 200-day, and it is not on the September 28 washout-turn list. On the September 28 Momentum Board it sits in the multi-year-outperformers-in-pullback tier. The September 23 healthcare and biotech scans called it "pullback, trend intact" at $1,150.99; the September 25 healthcare scan called it "healthy trend."

Catalysts

Third-quarter report, scheduled for October 29 before the open (provider calendar; Lilly's confirmation is not on file). This is the first quarter with Medicare Bridge access and Foundayo's second quarter on the market. It will also show whether the revenue range rises a third time, and where U.S. price lands after the rebate adjustments.
Novo's CagriSema approval decision, expected later this year (Endpoints). It would be the first approved amylin combination and a competitor to Lilly's eloralintide program.
Foundayo in type 2 diabetes. Filed in the U.S., the EU and Japan (10-Q); no decision date is on file.
Retatrutide. Phase 3 trials met their primary endpoints; a filing date is not on file.
Duquesne's September-quarter 13F, due around mid-November. It shows whether the token stake grew, was held, or was sold.

Risks and Kill Tests

Guide cut. A lower revenue range on October 29 breaks the thesis.
Price erosion outruns volume. A falling gross margin alongside falling price would show the trade has turned against Lilly.
Medicare disappoints. Lilly itself calls the uptake unknown. Weak uptake removes the second-half volume driver.
Competition. CagriSema, monthly-dosing entrants such as Viking's VK2735, and oral GLP-1s all compete for the same patients.
Policy. The Inflation Reduction Act sets Medicare prices for Jardiance now and for Trulicity and Verzenio in 2028. The "most favored nation" deal shares foreign price gains with the U.S. government. Pharmaceutical tariff exemptions "may expire" (10-Q).
Balance sheet. Debt rose $12.4 billion in six months to fund acquisitions. More debt-funded deals while cash flow slows would reset the case.
Concentration. One molecule is 65% of revenue.
Price. A daily close below $1,110 means the September low failed; stand aside.

Cross-references

The protein-economy campaign (May 2026) is history. It framed Lilly as the drug-side leader losing consumer surplus to distribution channels such as HIMS, and priced Lilly at $963.33 on May 1. It was retired on May 19 with its HIMS pivot disproven. Since then:
- Lilly's own LillyDirect self-pay channel is a growing share of sales (10-K).
- Foundayo launched and Medicare access opened.
- Revenue grew 48% in the June quarter. The channel frame does not apply to today's Lilly.
Momentum Board, September 28: the multi-year-outperformers-in-pullback tier, not the steady-climber tier.
Healthcare and biotech scans, September 23 and 25: "pullback, trend intact" at $1,150.99, then "healthy trend" at $1,183.46.
Insider scans, September 23 and 25: among the heaviest net sellers by the providers' insider feed, flagged "selling against a strong trend."
Watchlists: healthcare, biotech, peptide economy, insider universe.
The Druckenmiller 13F capture (September 26) covers the other six names on the same list.

Refresh History

Date	Price	RSI	vs SMA20	30D	What changed
2026-09-28	$1,184.78	56	+2.9%	+0.87%	First dive: June-quarter 10-Q read, implied second-half guide, 17-week base; buy $1,160–$1,197, stop $1,110

Sources

Primary sources:

Lilly 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30
Lilly 10-K, fiscal 2025
Lilly 8-K, 2026-08-05 (second-quarter results; exhibit text not on file)
Lilly release: second-quarter 2026 results, raises full-year guidance
Form 4, Patrik Jonsson (2026-08-17 sale)
Duquesne Family Office 13F-HR, period 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-14, accession 0001536411-26-000006: filing index; information table; prior quarter, Lilly absent

News and commentary characterized:

Internal receipts:

Tape (every live cell; prose figures as of 2026-09-28): healthcare (also biotech.json, peptide-economy.json; peers biotech-scan.json, biotech-capital-cycle.json). Historical closes: 2026-07-31-monster-scan ($1,148.84), 2026-08-19-monster-scan.md ($1,280.34), 2026-09-11-monster-scan.md ($1,115.70), 2026-09-24-monster-scan.md, 2026-09-28-monster-scan.md; 2026-09-23-healthcare-scan, 2026-09-23-biotech-scan.md, 2026-09-25-healthcare-scan.md, 2026-09-23-insider-scan.md, 2026-09-25-insider-scan.md, 2026-09-28-washout-scan.md (Lilly not listed); 2026-09-21-market-brief, 2026-09-24-market-brief.md.
Fundamentals: edgar{company-facts,key-financials}.json, 10Q-2026-08-05.html, 10K-2026-02-12.html; massive{income-statements,cash-flow-statements,balance-sheets}.json. Reconciliation run 2026-09-29: trailing-twelve-month revenue growth 49.6% confirmed across SEC and Massive; fiscal 2025 net margin 31.7% confirmed; operating margin single-source and not quoted; capital spending and free cash flow unmapped by the reconciler and script-computed from the SEC property-and-equipment line. Guidance range per Endpoints; release exhibit not on file.
Earnings records: 2026-08-05-lly-earnings, 2026-10-29-lly-earnings.
News: latest (fetched 2026-09-29T20:52Z, ok, not stale; quote-page summaries, weak); articles.
Insiders: filing-watch (Form 4 cluster, accessions 0001786054-26-000006, 0000059478-26-000083, 0001685556-26-000006); 2026-08-18-lly-4-*, 2026-09-04-lly-4-*.md, 2026-09-11-lly-4-0002032089-26-000004.md, 2026-09-22-lly-4-*.md.
Captures: 2026-08-05-endpointsnews-lilly-once-again-beats-expectations-as-tirzepatide-accounts--ts-news-p-586043, 2026-08-05-cnbc-we-re-increasing-our-eli-lilly-price-target-after-another-be-108345447.md, 2026-08-12-endpointsnews-eli-lilly-files-first-lawsuits-over-retatrutide-black-market-ts-news-p-587033.md, 2026-08-19-endpointsnews-amylin-design-debate-heats-up-as-lilly-s-crucial-mid-stage-w-ts-news-p-587673.md, 2026-08-20-endpointsnews-using-gray-market-versions-of-lilly-s-triple-g-leads-to-rela-ts-news-p-588035.md, 2026-08-27-endpointsnews-lilly-s-move-to-hide-phase-1-pipeline-draws-mixed-reviews-ts-news-p-588684.md, 2026-08-28-endpointsnews-mounjaro-scores-fda-approval-to-reduce-cv-risk-teva-to-buy-a-ts-news-p-588867.md, 2026-08-31-endpointsnews-lilly-to-buy-ted-startup-merida-biosciences-in-its-13th-acqu-ts-news-p-589006.md, 2026-09-08-cnbc-pharma-major-novartis-falls-10-after-three-drug-trial-setbac-108359602.md, 2026-09-08-cnbc-patients-pay-the-tariff-swiss-pharma-ceo-warns-of-trump-s-ge-108359702.md, 2026-09-08-cnbc-lilly-perseveres-in-a-bad-day-for-drug-stocks-plus-boeing-s--108359948.md, 2026-09-18-endpointsnews-fda-approves-lilly-s-oral-serd-combo-for-second-line-breast--ts-news-p-591502.md, 2026-09-21-cnbc-eli-lilly-ceo-tells-cnbc-one-third-of-new-glp-1-pill-patient-108365148.md, 2026-09-21-endpointsnews-pfizer-lilly-most-favored-nation-deals-to-give-us-share-of-r-ts-news-p-591592.md, 2026-09-21-endpointsnews-novo-offers-low-dose-cagrisema-data-as-approval-decision-loo-ts-news-p-591648.md, 2026-09-22-marketwatch-this-glp-1-drug-helped-people-maintain-their-weight-loss-in---mktw-0005246480.md, 2026-09-24-endpointsnews-fda-approves-eli-lilly-s-once-weekly-insulin-pen-setting-up--ts-news-p-592346.md, 2026-09-24-endpointsnews-in-another-china-pact-lilly-makes-a-deal-with-innocare-worth-ts-news-p-592247.md, 2026-09-25-cnbc-novo-is-betting-on-its-next-chapter-as-eli-lilly-gains-more--108367453.md, 2026-09-25-endpointsnews-jury-awards-nektar-90m-in-suit-against-lilly-ts-news-p-592613.md; tweets 2026-09-25-MMatters22596-preparing-for-2027-10-key-sectors-to-watch-energ-58211990, 2026-09-01-RealJGBanks-history-says-health-care-and-energy-is-one-of-th-26505067.md, 2026-09-29-social-search-lly.md (Hacker News only, nothing relevant; X timed out).
13F check: 2026-09-26-druckenmiller-duquesne-q2-13f-new-positions.
Desk context: README (closed 2026-05-19; history).