Hyperliquid Strategies Is Up 130% Since March, but HYPE per Share Fell in Its June Quarter

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Article published Sep 29, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.

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Hyperliquid Strategies is doing well, not cratering: the HYPE-token treasury is up 130% since late March and trades above its 50- and 200-day averages, and the past week's slide left it 19.2% below its September 21–22 high. The trouble is the number that prices a treasury company: the HYPE behind each share. The SEC 10-Q and 10-K count 18,826,355 HYPE against 124.2 million common shares at March 31, and 29,275,085 HYPE against 200.6 million shares at June 30. That is 0.1516 HYPE per common share in March and 0.1460 in June, so the June quarter's stock sales did not add HYPE per share. A Chardan equity line was amended on September 14, and a new S-1 with a $1.84 billion fee table went effective on September 23. The company states no NAV or mNAV figure. The call is wait, low conviction, with no levels. The fiscal first-quarter 10-Q, expected by mid-November, has to show HYPE per share above June's, and the stock has to close above $14.76.

Data as of 2026-09-29 close: PURR $11.92, RSI 50.7, −3.87% vs SMA20, 7D −14.55%, −19.2% from the 52-week high, above its 50- and 200-day averages (desk price data, Schwab daily bars).

Balance-sheet figures come from the June 30 10-K and the March 31 10-Q. HYPE per share is script-computed from the filed token counts divided by filed common shares outstanding on the same date; it ignores the convertible preferred and warrants. The 10-K defines mNAV but states no NAV or mNAV value, and the August 27 results release and the September 15 S-1 are not on file. Views from X (@ConnorJBates_, @TheShortBear, @wallstengine) are attributed, not verified.

Quick Snapshot (as of 2026-09-29)

Question Answer
The call 🟡 Wait: no entry until HYPE per share is on file and the stock clears its September high. No entry zone · no stop · no target · low conviction.
What it is A Nasdaq-listed Delaware company whose business is buying and staking HYPE, the native token of the Hyperliquid blockchain (10-Q). It formed on December 2, 2025, when Sonnet BioTherapeutics combined with Rorschach I LLC. Sonnet's drug-development assets went to Guidant Bio Therapeutics on March 31, 2026.
Why now Duquesne Family Office's June 30 13F (filed August 14) shows a new 2,941,500-share position: about $23.2 million, 0.44% of the filing's reported value, rank 46 of 95. It is three months stale and was public six weeks before a September 26 X post relayed it; the third-quarter 13F is due around mid-November.
Proof At June 30 the 10-K counts 29,275,085 HYPE at a fair value of $1.904 billion (cost $1.363 billion) and cash of $137.9 million. Total liabilities were $187.1 million, almost all a deferred tax liability. Net staking revenue was $9.46 million for the fiscal year.
Objection Per-share math. HYPE per common share fell from 0.1516 (March 31) to 0.1460 (June 30) as shares rose from 124.2 million to 200.6 million, and a new S-1 went effective on September 23. The 10-Q counted 29.8 million warrants at March 31, almost all struck between $6.25 and $18.75.
Stock setup Up 130% over six months and above its 50-day ($9.76) and 200-day ($6.84) averages. It sits 19.2% under the $14.76 high of September 21–22, in a flag with RSI 50.7.

Action Matrix (as of 2026-09-29)

Signal If Then
🟢 Buy Both: the fiscal first-quarter 10-Q or a company release shows more HYPE per common share than June 30's 0.1460, and PURR closes above $14.76 Set levels then: entry on the breakout, stop under the flag low. The filing decides whether the equity line is adding value per share.
🟡 Wait Now: price between $10.55 and $14.76 with no per-share HYPE figure on file No position. The pullback from the September high is a flag inside an intact uptrend; let it resolve.
🔴 Out A daily close below $10.55, the past month's low The flag failed. Stand aside until a new base forms; the 50-day average ($9.76 on September 29) is the next support.
🟠 Target None set The call has no entry, so it sets no target.
🔴 Thesis breaks HYPE per share falls again in the September quarter, or the advisor revokes its waiver of the 5% share and 15% warrant grants on equity raises Issuance is diluting holders. For HYPE exposure, the spot HYPE ETFs hold the token without either cost.

The Story Right Now (as of 2026-09-29)

Hyperliquid Strategies is doing well: up 130% since March 30, above its 50- and 200-day averages, and in a 19.2% pullback from its September 21–22 high that has not broken the trend.

The captured news on the path is about Hyperliquid, not the company. Sherwood News reported on May 19 that the stock spiked on a report that the SEC would soon allow an "innovation exemption" for tokenized stocks. On June 1 Sherwood noted that HYPE had hit an all-time high and that the two HYPE treasury companies were the only digital-asset treasuries showing gains. On August 19 President Trump said the SEC and CFTC were working on a legal path for Hyperliquid to operate in the U.S. (@wallstengine, relayed on X; Semafor reported the same on August 20). The stock printed its $14.76 high on September 21–22, the sessions in which Yahoo Finance reported bitcoin above $86,000. It then lost 14.55% in seven days. On September 23 @TheShortBear wrote that one session had "fully reset" the crypto open interest built up during the prior week's breakout. The same day, the SEC declared the company's new S-1 effective. No source on file ties the slide to either event. The desk's summaries show the Bitwise and Grayscale HYPE ETFs down about 6% in the seven days to September 28, a day earlier than PURR's window. PURR has fallen harder than the HYPE ETFs.

HYPE per share fell in the June quarter. The 10-K counts 29,275,085 HYPE at June 30, at a fair value of $1.904 billion (priced at $65.04 a token) against a cost of $1.363 billion. The 10-Q counted 18,826,355 at March 31. Divided by common shares outstanding on the same dates, that is 0.1516 HYPE per share at March 31 and 0.1460 at June 30. At June 30 the 10-K also shows cash of $137.9 million and total liabilities of $187.1 million. The liabilities are almost all a $183.5 million deferred tax liability on unrealized token gains. Stockholders' equity was $1.873 billion. Common shares were 200,550,458 at June 30 and 197,837,597 on August 23, the date on the 10-K cover. The 10-K's subsequent-events note explains the move: after June 30 the company spent $17.3 million to buy back about 2.7 million shares, then sold about 10.7 million shares under the equity facility for $117.1 million. Other claims on the equity sit ahead of or beside the common. There are 166,173 Series A preferred shares, each with a $1,000 stated value and convertible at $6.25. The 10-Q counts 29.8 million warrants at March 31, including the advisor's 27.4 million in three equal tranches at $9.375, $12.50 and $18.75. At $11.92 the first tranche is in the money. The 10-K defines mNAV as market capitalization over NAV, with NAV equal to reported stockholders' equity adjusted for HYPE at market and for raises and purchases after the balance-sheet date. It states no value for either.

The company is built to issue stock. Chardan agreed in October 2025 to buy up to $1.0 billion of common stock at the company's option (10-Q). After March 31 the company sold 10,381,000 shares under that facility for $64.6 million net, "predominantly used to purchase HYPE tokens." The facility was amended on September 1 and twice on September 14. The final amendment prices Chardan's purchases at 98.5% of VWAP (volume-weighted average price), or 97.0% for off-hours purchases, "following the sale of the first 160,000,000 shares" under it (8-K). The next day the company filed an S-1 whose SEC fee table records a maximum aggregate offering of $1.8352 billion; it went effective on September 23. The advisory agreement with Rorschach Advisors, an affiliate, entitles it to shares equal to 5% of any equity raised plus warrants for 15%. The 10-K says the advisor "has waived its right to receive such additional equity grants" on financings after the closing, "unless and until it revokes such waiver." The company's stated policy is to sell stock only when mNAV is above a target ratio, to buy back stock at a meaningful discount, and not to sell stock while a buyback is active (10-K). Selling stock above the value of the HYPE behind each share adds HYPE per share; selling below it subtracts. The June quarter's per-share decline says the sales that quarter did not add.

The call: wait, low conviction, no levels. The setup is bottom, pop, flag, breakout, and PURR is in the flag. What decides the trade is HYPE per share, and the only quarter on file shows it falling. Price levels without it would be an entry on strength with a stop too far away to bound the loss. The stock moved 14.55% in one week, and the company's own warrant model assumed 123% annual HYPE volatility. A stop tight enough to limit the loss would sit inside an ordinary week. A buy needs both conditions: a filing or release showing more HYPE per share than at June 30, and a close above $14.76. A close below $10.55 ends the flag.

What would move this to medium:

  • the fiscal first-quarter 10-Q (quarter ending September 30, expected by mid-November) reports the token count, and HYPE per share is higher than at June 30
  • the company publishes its own NAV and mNAV figures, so the policy's target ratio can be checked
  • staking revenue keeps growing with the token count

A second quarter of falling HYPE per share, or the advisor revoking its waiver, would kill it.

Extended analysis