🔥 Hot Signals
Article
🔥 Hot Signals
🔥 Hot Signals — 2026-09-30
Auto-generated rollup. One pull, not five.
Sources:
exit-check,persona-consensus,convergence-db --min=2,monster-scan,entry-volume-scan,breakout-volume-scan,distribution-scan,capture-health, optionalregime-signals.Generated in 1827ms — pure aggregation, no fresh scans.
🟢 Capture health
30 sources · 23 fresh · 6 stale · 1 no captures (threshold 7d)
⚠ Stale sources mean profile + chorus output is operating on old captures. Run
deno task intake:harvestor per-source scrapers to refresh.
| Source | Type | Last capture | Days stale |
|---|---|---|---|
| dumb-money-live | podcast | 2026-03-24 | 190d |
| thediff | rss | 2026-04-29 | 154d |
| sherwood | rss | 2026-08-17 | 44d |
| phynvesting | rss | 2026-09-11 | 19d |
| warontherocks | rss | 2026-09-22 | 8d |
| nuttycld | rss | 2026-09-22 | 8d |
| SecurityAnalysis | — | — |
📊 At a glance
- 1 SELL verdicts • 17 TRIM verdicts (17 from perspective fade)
- 15 convergent bull setups (3+ personas long, no shorts) • 0 divergent
- 3 tickers in 3+ independent traces
- 12 parabolic monsters (golden cross + 50%+ above SMA200)
- 1 risk-on regime gauges • 1 risk-off • 0 blocked
Regime gauges — 2026-09-30
| Gauge | State | Band | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLD vs UUP inverse | gold_breakdown_dollar_firm | risk_on | -9.06 30d spread pct pts |
| Broad-market ETF breadth | breadth_deteriorating | risk_off | 20 pct above SMA50 |
🔴 CRITICAL — 1 SELL
| Ticker | Strategy | P&L | Rule | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TQQQ | degen | +0.5% | time-stop-10d |
10d in a LEVERAGED position for +0.5%? Decay eats sideways. Out. |
🟠 TRIM — 17 positions
17 of these are perspective-fading — originating thesis closing/resolved:
- XLU (bench-signals, -12.7%) — All originating theses fading — The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- XLU (bench-signals-trail, -12.7%) — All originating theses fading — The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- GLD (bench-signals, -8.7%) — All originating theses fading — The Gold Anomaly — Broken Safe Haven (closed). Review whether to hold.
- GLD (conviction, -8.2%) — All originating theses fading — The Gold Anomaly — Broken Safe Haven (closed). Review whether to hold.
- TLT (conviction, -5.5%) — All originating theses fading — SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed). Review whether to hold.
- APD (bench-signals, -0.1%) — All originating theses fading — Gulf Infrastructure Strike Scenario (closed). Review whether to hold.
- INDA (bench-signals, +0.2%) — All originating theses fading — Gulf Infrastructure Strike Scenario (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (bench-signals, +0.8%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (bench-signals-trail, +0.8%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- SPY (dca-larry, +5.4%) — All originating theses fading — AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed); The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (claude-trader, +7.1%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (bench-signals, +8.2%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (yolo, +8.2%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (claude-trader, +9.1%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (conviction, +9.6%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- QQQ (dca-larry, +10.1%) — All originating theses fading — AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed); The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- META (bench-signals-trail, +31.9%) — All originating theses fading — SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
🎯 Convergent bulls — 15
Tickers held long by 3+ personas with no shorts. Persona-level consensus signal.
| Ticker | # bulls | Avg P&L | Long strategies |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 11 | +9.5% | ackman-13f, atreides-13f, bench-signals (tier: HIGH), bench-signals-trail (tier: MEDIUM), claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM)... |
| SPCX | 6 | -11.7% | altimeter-13f, atreides-13f, coatue-13f, greenoaks-13f, loeb-13f (tier: LOW)... |
| GOOGL | 11 | +6.3% | altimeter-13f, atreides-13f, bench-signals (tier: HIGH), buffett-13f, claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM)... |
| MU | 5 | +49.8% | altimeter-13f, aschenbrenner-13f (tier: LOW), coatue-13f, gottheimer-trades (tier: LOW), tepper-13f |
| NVDA | 7 | +13.7% | altimeter-13f, bench-signals (tier: HIGH), claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM), conviction (tier: MEDIUM), khanna-trades (tier: LOW)... |
| SNDK | 3 | +101.2% | aschenbrenner-13f (tier: LOW), druckenmiller-13f (tier: MEDIUM), gottheimer-trades (tier: LOW) |
| AVGO | 6 | -0.3% | bench-signals (tier: HIGH), claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM), khanna-trades (tier: LOW), pelosi-trades (tier: LOW), tepper-13f... |
| DHR | 4 | +12.0% | conviction (tier: MEDIUM), druckenmiller-13f (tier: MEDIUM), loeb-13f (tier: LOW), mccaul-trades |
| TSM | 7 | +9.4% | altimeter-13f, aschenbrenner-13f (tier: LOW), coatue-13f, druckenmiller-13f (tier: MEDIUM), greenoaks-13f... |
| MSFT | 3 | +19.3% | ackman-13f, coatue-13f, conviction (tier: MEDIUM) |
| UBER | 4 | -3.3% | altimeter-13f, khanna-trades (tier: LOW), pelosi-trades (tier: LOW), tepper-13f |
| META | 5 | +23.5% | ackman-13f, altimeter-13f, atreides-13f, bench-signals-trail (tier: MEDIUM), tepper-13f |
| CVS | 5 | -7.9% | bench-signals (tier: HIGH), bench-signals-trail (tier: MEDIUM), claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM), claude-trader-trail (tier: LOW), yolo (tier: HIGH) |
| INTC | 3 | +44.8% | atreides-13f, coatue-13f, pelosi-trades (tier: LOW) |
| PANW | 3 | +60.7% | atreides-13f, druckenmiller-13f (tier: MEDIUM), gottheimer-trades (tier: LOW) |
🌐 Cross-thesis hits — 3
Tickers surfaced by 3+ independent autonomous-research traces. The "shows up everywhere" signal.
| Ticker | Company | # traces | Theses |
|---|---|---|---|
| COHR | Coherent Corp (formerly II-VI) | 4 | quantum computing physical bot...; military drone supply chain an...; HBM high-bandwidth memory equi... |
| LIN | Linde plc | 3 | quantum computing physical bot...; LNG liquefaction shipping and ...; helium supply chain for semico... |
| APD | Air Products and Chemicals | 3 | quantum computing physical bot...; LNG liquefaction shipping and ...; helium supply chain for semico... |
🚀 Monsters — top 12
Parabolic stocks: golden cross + 50%+ above SMA200. Top by 3-month change.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 3M | 30D | vs SMA200 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BWET | $803.00 | 64.2 | +439.0% | +92.7% | +294% |
| ZCSH | $37.94 | 65.3 | +309.3% | +65.1% | +205% |
| IOVA | $14.82 | 87.1 | +273.3% | +81.4% | +221% |
| MRNA | $192.57 | 68.3 | +165.6% | +37.2% | +188% |
| KOD | $94.80 | 90.5 | +154.6% | +153.8% | +172% |
| ASST | $29.41 | 68.2 | +144.7% | +21.4% | +91% |
| TXG | $90.36 | 77.2 | +131.4% | +44.7% | +166% |
| CDNA | $65.00 | 79.0 | +122.2% | +29.7% | +130% |
| TEAM | $179.29 | 50.4 | +115.6% | -7.7% | +60% |
| GRAL | $140.12 | 89.6 | +105.7% | +76.5% | +92% |
| LINK-USD | $14.34 | 62.7 | +95.1% | +26.7% | +52% |
| ABCL | $14.59 | 73.9 | +92.0% | +27.1% | +148% |
🎯 Entry + Volume setups — top 8
Good entry zone (uptrend, not extended, at a volume shelf) AND volume confirming. The dip-at-shelf buy radar.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA200 | Froth | RelVol | Zone | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RXRX | $4.13 | 63 | +15.5% | -5.6% | 1.6× | VA | biotech-capital-cycle, biotech-scan |
| J | $135.27 | 35 | +1.6% | -0.3% | 1.3× | POC | thebuildout-semiconductor-fab-construction-engineering |
| HIMS | $29.79 | 53 | +7.9% | -2.5% | 1.6× | VA | consumer, cultural-thesis |
| DIS | $104.90 | 49 | +0.9% | +0.0% | 1.4× | POC | bargain-bin |
| BRK-B | $497.95 | 40 | +1.0% | +1.0% | 1.6× | POC | financials |
| EXTR | $21.45 | 40 | +0.5% | +0.9% | 1.4× | VA | ai-infrastructure |
| MDB | $348.61 | 41 | +1.5% | +2.2% | 1.9× | VA | ai-scan, cloud-etf-holdings |
| CLDX | $32.41 | 33 | +0.4% | +2.9% | 1.4× | VA | monster-discoveries |
📈 Breakout + Volume — top 1
Pushing to highs / above the volume shelf WITH a volume spike. The breakout buy radar.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA200 | →52wkH | RelVol | Kind | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POCT | $47.89 | 72 | +5.4% | -0.0% | 11.6× | highs | buffer-signals |
⚠️ Distribution / trim watch — top 4
Mechanism: high-volume churn while EXTENDED (overbought + stretched). Running hot — trim into strength, don't add. ⤵ = rolling over on volume.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | Froth | vs SMA20 | RelVol | 7D | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PACB | $2.37 | 85 | +38.1% | +61.9% | 11.2× | +68.1% | biotech-capital-cycle, ibb |
| POCT | $47.89 | 72 | +8.1% | +0.6% | 11.6× | +0.2% | buffer-signals |
| DNA | $12.83 | 80 | +38.4% | +53.6% | 2.6× | +49.5% | biotech-capital-cycle, biotech-scan |
| RVTY | $152.89 | 75 | +43.6% | +10.0% | 2.0× | +7.6% | biotech-capital-cycle |
Sources
research/market-engine/data/summaries/*.json(precomputed settled-close summaries — all prices/RSI/percentages above)
Re-run with deno task hot-signal-rollup.
No direct external sources are attached to this read.