🔥 Hot Signals
Article
🔥 Hot Signals
🔥 Hot Signals — 2026-10-01
Auto-generated rollup. One pull, not five.
Sources:
exit-check,persona-consensus,convergence-db --min=2,monster-scan,entry-volume-scan,breakout-volume-scan,distribution-scan,capture-health, optionalregime-signals.Generated in 1563ms — pure aggregation, no fresh scans.
🟢 Capture health
30 sources · 23 fresh · 6 stale · 1 no captures (threshold 7d)
⚠ Stale sources mean profile + chorus output is operating on old captures. Run
deno task intake:harvestor per-source scrapers to refresh.
| Source | Type | Last capture | Days stale |
|---|---|---|---|
| dumb-money-live | podcast | 2026-03-24 | 192d |
| thediff | rss | 2026-04-29 | 156d |
| sherwood | rss | 2026-08-17 | 46d |
| phynvesting | rss | 2026-09-11 | 21d |
| warontherocks | rss | 2026-09-22 | 10d |
| yahoofinance | rss | 2026-09-24 | 8d |
| SecurityAnalysis | — | — |
📊 At a glance
- 0 SELL verdicts • 17 TRIM verdicts (17 from perspective fade)
- 15 convergent bull setups (3+ personas long, no shorts) • 0 divergent
- 3 tickers in 3+ independent traces
- 12 parabolic monsters (golden cross + 50%+ above SMA200)
- 2 risk-on regime gauges • 2 risk-off • 0 blocked
Regime gauges — 2026-10-01
| Gauge | State | Band | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDX/GLD miners-vs-metal | miners_lagging_metal | risk_off | 0.23 ratio |
| GLD vs UUP inverse | gold_breakdown_dollar_firm | risk_on | -6.19 30d spread pct pts |
| Broad-market ETF breadth | breadth_deteriorating | risk_off | 26.7 pct above SMA50 |
| Sector ETF relative-strength rotation | cyclicals_leading_defensives | risk_on | 4.83 cyclical-minus-defensive 30d pct pts |
🟠 TRIM — 17 positions
17 of these are perspective-fading — originating thesis closing/resolved:
- XLU (bench-signals, -12.2%) — All originating theses fading — The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- XLU (bench-signals-trail, -12.2%) — All originating theses fading — The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- GLD (bench-signals, -8.2%) — All originating theses fading — The Gold Anomaly — Broken Safe Haven (closed). Review whether to hold.
- GLD (conviction, -7.7%) — All originating theses fading — The Gold Anomaly — Broken Safe Haven (closed). Review whether to hold.
- TLT (conviction, -5.6%) — All originating theses fading — SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed). Review whether to hold.
- APD (bench-signals, -1.9%) — All originating theses fading — Gulf Infrastructure Strike Scenario (closed). Review whether to hold.
- INDA (bench-signals, -0.5%) — All originating theses fading — Gulf Infrastructure Strike Scenario (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (bench-signals, +0.4%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (bench-signals-trail, +0.4%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- SPY (dca-larry, +5.5%) — All originating theses fading — AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed); The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (claude-trader, +6.7%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (bench-signals, +9.3%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (yolo, +9.3%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (claude-trader, +10.3%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- QQQ (dca-larry, +10.5%) — All originating theses fading — AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed); The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (conviction, +10.8%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- META (bench-signals-trail, +32.0%) — All originating theses fading — SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
🎯 Convergent bulls — 15
Tickers held long by 3+ personas with no shorts. Persona-level consensus signal.
| Ticker | # bulls | Avg P&L | Long strategies |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 11 | +9.1% | ackman-13f, atreides-13f, bench-signals (tier: HIGH), bench-signals-trail (tier: MEDIUM), claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM)... |
| SPCX | 6 | -13.3% | altimeter-13f, atreides-13f, coatue-13f, greenoaks-13f, loeb-13f (tier: LOW)... |
| GOOGL | 11 | +4.5% | altimeter-13f, atreides-13f, bench-signals (tier: HIGH), buffett-13f, claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM)... |
| MU | 5 | +54.3% | altimeter-13f, aschenbrenner-13f (tier: LOW), coatue-13f, gottheimer-trades (tier: LOW), tepper-13f |
| NVDA | 7 | +14.9% | altimeter-13f, bench-signals (tier: HIGH), claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM), conviction (tier: MEDIUM), khanna-trades (tier: LOW)... |
| SNDK | 3 | +106.8% | aschenbrenner-13f (tier: LOW), druckenmiller-13f (tier: MEDIUM), gottheimer-trades (tier: LOW) |
| AVGO | 6 | -2.5% | bench-signals (tier: HIGH), claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM), khanna-trades (tier: LOW), pelosi-trades (tier: LOW), tepper-13f... |
| DHR | 4 | +7.1% | conviction (tier: MEDIUM), druckenmiller-13f (tier: MEDIUM), loeb-13f (tier: LOW), mccaul-trades |
| TSM | 7 | +10.1% | altimeter-13f, aschenbrenner-13f (tier: LOW), coatue-13f, druckenmiller-13f (tier: MEDIUM), greenoaks-13f... |
| MSFT | 3 | +19.3% | ackman-13f, coatue-13f, conviction (tier: MEDIUM) |
| UBER | 4 | -4.2% | altimeter-13f, khanna-trades (tier: LOW), pelosi-trades (tier: LOW), tepper-13f |
| META | 5 | +23.7% | ackman-13f, altimeter-13f, atreides-13f, bench-signals-trail (tier: MEDIUM), tepper-13f |
| CVS | 5 | -8.4% | bench-signals (tier: HIGH), bench-signals-trail (tier: MEDIUM), claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM), claude-trader-trail (tier: LOW), yolo (tier: HIGH) |
| INTC | 3 | +44.6% | atreides-13f, coatue-13f, pelosi-trades (tier: LOW) |
| PANW | 3 | +60.3% | atreides-13f, druckenmiller-13f (tier: MEDIUM), gottheimer-trades (tier: LOW) |
🌐 Cross-thesis hits — 3
Tickers surfaced by 3+ independent autonomous-research traces. The "shows up everywhere" signal.
| Ticker | Company | # traces | Theses |
|---|---|---|---|
| COHR | Coherent Corp (formerly II-VI) | 4 | quantum computing physical bot...; military drone supply chain an...; HBM high-bandwidth memory equi... |
| LIN | Linde plc | 3 | quantum computing physical bot...; LNG liquefaction shipping and ...; helium supply chain for semico... |
| APD | Air Products and Chemicals | 3 | quantum computing physical bot...; LNG liquefaction shipping and ...; helium supply chain for semico... |
🚀 Monsters — top 12
Parabolic stocks: golden cross + 50%+ above SMA200. Top by 3-month change.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 3M | 30D | vs SMA200 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BWET | $826.13 | 65.6 | +384.4% | +83.4% | +297% |
| ZCSH | $35.12 | 57.1 | +259.1% | +58.2% | +180% |
| IOVA | $14.23 | 80.0 | +230.2% | +71.9% | +205% |
| KOD | $98.46 | 91.1 | +155.5% | +165.7% | +179% |
| MRNA | $188.94 | 65.8 | +136.9% | +22.5% | +180% |
| ASST | $30.11 | 70.4 | +129.7% | +25.5% | +95% |
| TXG | $88.76 | 73.4 | +127.5% | +48.0% | +158% |
| CDNA | $66.23 | 80.3 | +126.9% | +35.3% | +132% |
| TEAM | $189.91 | 57.7 | +126.5% | +1.5% | +69% |
| GRAL | $132.56 | 78.6 | +91.8% | +66.1% | +81% |
| CVI | $54.36 | 73.8 | +90.9% | +26.8% | +69% |
| TWST | $188.05 | 70.5 | +89.5% | +42.4% | +147% |
🎯 Entry + Volume setups — top 6
Good entry zone (uptrend, not extended, at a volume shelf) AND volume confirming. The dip-at-shelf buy radar.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA200 | Froth | RelVol | Zone | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WOLF | $31.17 | 63 | +6.0% | -16.9% | 1.4× | VA | ai-bottlenecks, ai-infrastructure |
| SIVE.ST | $33.28 | 53 | +10.1% | -2.9% | 1.3× | VA | ai-bottlenecks |
| EFA | $102.82 | 35 | +0.3% | +2.7% | 1.6× | POC | market-pulse |
| SONY | $23.49 | 49 | +5.0% | +1.1% | 1.4× | VA | ai-bottlenecks |
| XYLD | $41.57 | 52 | +2.1% | +3.0% | 1.6× | POC | etf-ideas |
| ADEA | $25.34 | 47 | +1.5% | +2.6% | 1.3× | VA | monster-discoveries |
📈 Breakout + Volume — top 4
Pushing to highs / above the volume shelf WITH a volume spike. The breakout buy radar.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA200 | →52wkH | RelVol | Kind | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POCT | $47.96 | 74 | +5.5% | -0.2% | 11.4× | highs | buffer-signals |
| AIXA.DE | $39.67 | 61 | +6.7% | -36.7% | 1.7× | breakout | ai-bottlenecks |
| UUP | $28.96 | 78 | +4.4% | -0.1% | 2.1× | highs | geopolitical, hard-assets |
| FTEC | $303.26 | 66 | +19.5% | -0.3% | 1.5× | highs | etf-ideas |
⚠️ Distribution / trim watch — top 7
Mechanism: high-volume churn while EXTENDED (overbought + stretched). Running hot — trim into strength, don't add. ⤵ = rolling over on volume.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | Froth | vs SMA20 | RelVol | 7D | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDGR | $30.46 | 71 | +75.5% | +18.3% | 2.1× | +3.4% | biotech-capital-cycle, ibb |
| PACB | $2.51 | 86 | +45.0% | +64.8% | 3.3× | +58.9% | biotech-capital-cycle, ibb |
| QSI | $1.43 | 87 | +3.4% | +74.4% | 10.1× | +81.0% | biotech-capital-cycle |
| LIND | $33.63 | 73 | +53.3% | +21.3% | 2.0× | +21.9% | monster-discoveries |
| EFXT | $25.44 | 70 | +25.7% | +11.5% | 3.4× | +9.4% | monster-discoveries |
| ACN | $212.30 | 70 | +9.2% | +14.7% | 5.4× | +19.7% | government-compute, nvidia-open-agent-ecosystem |
| SNPS | $490.54 | 74 | +10.9% | +20.9% | 3.1× | +15.4% | cloud-etf-holdings, nvidia-open-agent-ecosystem |
Sources
research/market-engine/data/summaries/*.json(precomputed settled-close summaries — all prices/RSI/percentages above)
Re-run with deno task hot-signal-rollup.
No direct external sources are attached to this read.