🔥 Hot Signals
Article
🔥 Hot Signals
🔥 Hot Signals — 2026-10-05
Auto-generated rollup. One pull, not five.
Sources:
exit-check,persona-consensus,convergence-db --min=2,monster-scan,entry-volume-scan,breakout-volume-scan,distribution-scan,capture-health, optionalregime-signals.Generated in 1580ms — pure aggregation, no fresh scans.
🟢 Capture health
30 sources · 23 fresh · 6 stale · 1 no captures (threshold 7d)
⚠ Stale sources mean profile + chorus output is operating on old captures. Run
deno task intake:harvestor per-source scrapers to refresh.
| Source | Type | Last capture | Days stale |
|---|---|---|---|
| dumb-money-live | podcast | 2026-03-24 | 196d |
| thediff | rss | 2026-04-29 | 160d |
| sherwood | rss | 2026-08-17 | 50d |
| phynvesting | rss | 2026-09-11 | 25d |
| warontherocks | rss | 2026-09-22 | 14d |
| yahoofinance | rss | 2026-09-24 | 12d |
| SecurityAnalysis | — | — |
📊 At a glance
- 0 SELL verdicts • 17 TRIM verdicts (17 from perspective fade)
- 15 convergent bull setups (3+ personas long, no shorts) • 0 divergent
- 3 tickers in 3+ independent traces
- 12 parabolic monsters (golden cross + 50%+ above SMA200)
- 3 risk-on regime gauges • 2 risk-off • 0 blocked
Regime gauges — 2026-10-05
| Gauge | State | Band | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDX/GLD miners-vs-metal | miners_lagging_metal | risk_off | 0.23 ratio |
| GLD vs UUP inverse | gold_breakdown_dollar_firm | risk_on | -9.93 30d spread pct pts |
| VIXY fear proxy | vol_compressed | risk_on | -58.3 pct from 52w high |
| Broad-market ETF breadth | breadth_deteriorating | risk_off | 33.3 pct above SMA50 |
| Sector ETF relative-strength rotation | cyclicals_leading_defensives | risk_on | 4.37 cyclical-minus-defensive 30d pct pts |
🟠 TRIM — 17 positions
17 of these are perspective-fading — originating thesis closing/resolved:
- XLU (bench-signals, -11.5%) — All originating theses fading — The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- XLU (bench-signals-trail, -11.5%) — All originating theses fading — The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- GLD (bench-signals, -9.0%) — All originating theses fading — The Gold Anomaly — Broken Safe Haven (closed). Review whether to hold.
- GLD (conviction, -8.5%) — All originating theses fading — The Gold Anomaly — Broken Safe Haven (closed). Review whether to hold.
- TLT (conviction, -6.3%) — All originating theses fading — SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed). Review whether to hold.
- INDA (bench-signals, -0.1%) — All originating theses fading — Gulf Infrastructure Strike Scenario (closed). Review whether to hold.
- APD (bench-signals, +0.3%) — All originating theses fading — Gulf Infrastructure Strike Scenario (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (bench-signals, +1.7%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (bench-signals-trail, +1.7%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- SPY (dca-larry, +6.3%) — All originating theses fading — AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed); The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (claude-trader, +8.0%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- QQQ (dca-larry, +11.1%) — All originating theses fading — AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed); The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (bench-signals, +13.2%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (yolo, +13.2%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (claude-trader, +14.2%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (conviction, +14.6%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- META (bench-signals-trail, +34.9%) — All originating theses fading — SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
🎯 Convergent bulls — 15
Tickers held long by 3+ personas with no shorts. Persona-level consensus signal.
| Ticker | # bulls | Avg P&L | Long strategies |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 11 | +10.5% | ackman-13f, atreides-13f, bench-signals (tier: HIGH), bench-signals-trail (tier: MEDIUM), claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM)... |
| SPCX | 6 | +0.1% | altimeter-13f, atreides-13f, coatue-13f, greenoaks-13f, loeb-13f (tier: LOW)... |
| GOOGL | 11 | +7.0% | altimeter-13f, atreides-13f, bench-signals (tier: HIGH), buffett-13f, claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM)... |
| MU | 5 | +49.6% | altimeter-13f, aschenbrenner-13f (tier: LOW), coatue-13f, gottheimer-trades (tier: LOW), tepper-13f |
| NVDA | 7 | +18.9% | altimeter-13f, bench-signals (tier: HIGH), claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM), conviction (tier: MEDIUM), khanna-trades (tier: LOW)... |
| SNDK | 3 | +97.1% | aschenbrenner-13f (tier: LOW), druckenmiller-13f (tier: MEDIUM), gottheimer-trades (tier: LOW) |
| AVGO | 6 | +2.9% | bench-signals (tier: HIGH), claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM), khanna-trades (tier: LOW), pelosi-trades (tier: LOW), tepper-13f... |
| DHR | 4 | +11.9% | conviction (tier: MEDIUM), druckenmiller-13f (tier: MEDIUM), loeb-13f (tier: LOW), mccaul-trades |
| TSM | 7 | +16.5% | altimeter-13f, aschenbrenner-13f (tier: LOW), coatue-13f, druckenmiller-13f (tier: MEDIUM), greenoaks-13f... |
| MSFT | 3 | +22.2% | ackman-13f, coatue-13f, conviction (tier: MEDIUM) |
| UBER | 4 | -1.9% | altimeter-13f, khanna-trades (tier: LOW), pelosi-trades (tier: LOW), tepper-13f |
| META | 5 | +26.4% | ackman-13f, altimeter-13f, atreides-13f, bench-signals-trail (tier: MEDIUM), tepper-13f |
| CVS | 5 | -6.5% | bench-signals (tier: HIGH), bench-signals-trail (tier: MEDIUM), claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM), claude-trader-trail (tier: LOW), yolo (tier: HIGH) |
| INTC | 3 | +40.0% | atreides-13f, coatue-13f, pelosi-trades (tier: LOW) |
| PANW | 3 | +64.5% | atreides-13f, druckenmiller-13f (tier: MEDIUM), gottheimer-trades (tier: LOW) |
🌐 Cross-thesis hits — 3
Tickers surfaced by 3+ independent autonomous-research traces. The "shows up everywhere" signal.
| Ticker | Company | # traces | Theses |
|---|---|---|---|
| COHR | Coherent Corp (formerly II-VI) | 4 | quantum computing physical bot...; military drone supply chain an...; HBM high-bandwidth memory equi... |
| LIN | Linde plc | 3 | quantum computing physical bot...; LNG liquefaction shipping and ...; helium supply chain for semico... |
| APD | Air Products and Chemicals | 3 | quantum computing physical bot...; LNG liquefaction shipping and ...; helium supply chain for semico... |
🚀 Monsters — top 12
Parabolic stocks: golden cross + 50%+ above SMA200. Top by 3-month change.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 3M | 30D | vs SMA200 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BWET | $890.00 | 69.2 | +423.4% | +76.2% | +311% |
| ZCSH | $35.75 | 57.8 | +239.8% | +28.0% | +179% |
| IOVA | $14.15 | 79.0 | +237.7% | +61.0% | +195% |
| KOD | $93.81 | 84.3 | +153.4% | +165.3% | +161% |
| MRNA | $203.21 | 70.7 | +148.4% | +39.6% | +193% |
| TXG | $97.74 | 79.7 | +144.3% | +56.0% | +178% |
| CDNA | $69.85 | 83.8 | +140.4% | +37.3% | +141% |
| ASST | $30.26 | 70.6 | +130.8% | +11.5% | +94% |
| TEAM | $196.65 | 61.3 | +130.0% | +3.7% | +75% |
| GRAL | $154.08 | 84.6 | +123.5% | +91.8% | +109% |
| TWST | $205.00 | 76.0 | +105.1% | +64.4% | +163% |
| CVI | $56.94 | 78.3 | +97.2% | +28.0% | +75% |
🎯 Entry + Volume setups — top 4
Good entry zone (uptrend, not extended, at a volume shelf) AND volume confirming. The dip-at-shelf buy radar.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA200 | Froth | RelVol | Zone | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARKX | $32.91 | 57 | +1.3% | +0.7% | 1.8× | POC | ark, holdings-etfs |
| TOST | $30.04 | 41 | +1.0% | -0.6% | 1.5× | VA | consumer |
| SONY | $23.54 | 49 | +5.4% | +1.5% | 1.4× | VA | ai-bottlenecks |
| VSH | $37.10 | 64 | +20.8% | +2.8% | 1.3× | VA | ai-power |
📈 Breakout + Volume — top 3
Pushing to highs / above the volume shelf WITH a volume spike. The breakout buy radar.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA200 | →52wkH | RelVol | Kind | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWZ | $42.98 | 78 | +18.0% | -2.1% | 7.1× | highs | etf-ideas, macro-commodities |
| BUG | $47.73 | 65 | +42.5% | -0.2% | 2.2× | highs | cybersec |
| CIBR | $106.01 | 66 | +32.4% | -0.3% | 1.6× | highs | cybersec, market-pulse |
⚠️ Distribution / trim watch — top 8
Mechanism: high-volume churn while EXTENDED (overbought + stretched). Running hot — trim into strength, don't add. ⤵ = rolling over on volume.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | Froth | vs SMA20 | RelVol | 7D | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FORM | $147.99 | 71 | +41.4% | +19.0% | 10.9× | +13.0% | ai-bottlenecks, monster-discoveries |
| PCVX | $73.82 | 77 | +37.4% | +25.1% | 10.0× | +26.7% | biotech |
| DNA | $14.98 | 82 | +61.8% | +61.1% | 3.8× | +43.2% | biotech-capital-cycle, biotech-scan |
| MTRN | $319.18 | 79 | +57.3% | +21.6% | 2.4× | +21.8% | monster-discoveries |
| ATH.TO | $12.01 | 71 | +26.2% | +12.9% | 8.4× | +15.6% | canadian-og |
| EWZ | $42.98 | 78 | +19.9% | +13.5% | 7.1× | +18.7% | etf-ideas, macro-commodities |
| 6762.T | $3628.00 | 77 | +31.3% | +22.4% | 3.0× | +24.3% | ai-bottlenecks |
| NAUT | $1.87 | 77 | +7.6% | +63.1% | 7.5× | +68.5% | biotech-capital-cycle |
Sources
research/market-engine/data/summaries/*.json(precomputed settled-close summaries — all prices/RSI/percentages above)
Re-run with deno task hot-signal-rollup.
No direct external sources are attached to this read.