🔥 Hot Signals
Article
🔥 Hot Signals
🔥 Hot Signals — 2026-10-09
Auto-generated rollup. One pull, not five.
Sources:
exit-check,persona-consensus,convergence-db --min=2,monster-scan,entry-volume-scan,breakout-volume-scan,distribution-scan,capture-health, optionalregime-signals.Generated in 1529ms — pure aggregation, no fresh scans.
🟢 Capture health
29 sources · 23 fresh · 5 stale · 1 no captures (threshold 7d)
⚠ Stale sources mean profile + chorus output is operating on old captures. Run
deno task intake:harvestor per-source scrapers to refresh.
| Source | Type | Last capture | Days stale |
|---|---|---|---|
| dumb-money-live | podcast | 2026-03-24 | 200d |
| thediff | rss | 2026-04-29 | 164d |
| sherwood | rss | 2026-08-17 | 54d |
| phynvesting | rss | 2026-09-11 | 29d |
| nuttycld | rss | 2026-10-01 | 9d |
| SecurityAnalysis | — | — |
📊 At a glance
- 0 SELL verdicts • 20 TRIM verdicts (19 from perspective fade)
- 15 convergent bull setups (3+ personas long, no shorts) • 0 divergent
- 3 tickers in 3+ independent traces
- 12 parabolic monsters (golden cross + 50%+ above SMA200)
- 2 risk-on regime gauges • 2 risk-off • 0 blocked
Regime gauges — 2026-10-09
| Gauge | State | Band | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLD/SLV ratio proxy | defensive_metal_ratio_rising | risk_off | 7.02 ratio |
| GDX/GLD miners-vs-metal | miners_lagging_metal | risk_off | 0.23 ratio |
| GLD vs UUP inverse | gold_breakdown_dollar_firm | risk_on | -8.37 30d spread pct pts |
| VIXY fear proxy | vol_compressed | risk_on | -58.9 pct from 52w high |
🟠 TRIM — 20 positions
19 of these are perspective-fading — originating thesis closing/resolved:
- XLU (bench-signals, -8.3%) — All originating theses fading — The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- XLU (bench-signals-trail, -8.3%) — All originating theses fading — The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- GLD (bench-signals, -7.8%) — All originating theses fading — The Gold Anomaly — Broken Safe Haven (closed). Review whether to hold.
- GLD (conviction, -7.3%) — All originating theses fading — The Gold Anomaly — Broken Safe Haven (closed). Review whether to hold.
- TLT (conviction, -5.3%) — All originating theses fading — SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed). Review whether to hold.
- INDA (bench-signals, -1.2%) — All originating theses fading — Gulf Infrastructure Strike Scenario (closed). Review whether to hold.
- QQQ (core70-slice3-ex30-v1, -0.4%) — All originating theses fading — AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed); The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- TSLA (lag6-cal-v1, +0.1%) — All originating theses fading — Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed). Review whether to hold.
- APD (bench-signals, +0.9%) — All originating theses fading — Gulf Infrastructure Strike Scenario (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (bench-signals, +6.2%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (bench-signals-trail, +6.2%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- SPY (dca-larry, +6.8%) — All originating theses fading — AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed); The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (bench-signals, +8.6%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (yolo, +8.6%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (claude-trader, +9.6%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- NVDA (conviction, +10.0%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- QQQ (dca-larry, +10.4%) — All originating theses fading — AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed); The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch (closed). Review whether to hold.
- AMZN (claude-trader, +12.8%) — All originating theses fading — Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle (closed); SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
- META (bench-signals-trail, +30.7%) — All originating theses fading — SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 (closed); AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell (closed). Review whether to hold.
Other trims (rule-based):
| Ticker | Strategy | P&L | Rule | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GILD | yolo | +15.9% | partial-profit |
+15.9% — consider partial at +15% (CRSP lesson: was +16.2%, reversed to -4.8%). |
🎯 Convergent bulls — 15
Tickers held long by 3+ personas with no shorts. Persona-level consensus signal.
| Ticker | # bulls | Avg P&L | Long strategies |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 11 | +15.3% | ackman-13f, atreides-13f, bench-signals (tier: HIGH), bench-signals-trail (tier: MEDIUM), claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM)... |
| MU | 6 | +37.4% | altimeter-13f, aschenbrenner-13f (tier: LOW), coatue-13f, core70-slice3-ex30-v1, gottheimer-trades (tier: LOW)... |
| SPCX | 6 | -4.8% | altimeter-13f, atreides-13f, coatue-13f, greenoaks-13f, loeb-13f (tier: LOW)... |
| GOOGL | 11 | +8.7% | altimeter-13f, atreides-13f, bench-signals (tier: HIGH), buffett-13f, claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM)... |
| NVDA | 7 | +14.1% | altimeter-13f, bench-signals (tier: HIGH), claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM), conviction (tier: MEDIUM), khanna-trades (tier: LOW)... |
| SNDK | 3 | +83.0% | aschenbrenner-13f (tier: LOW), druckenmiller-13f (tier: MEDIUM), gottheimer-trades (tier: LOW) |
| AVGO | 6 | +2.6% | bench-signals (tier: HIGH), claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM), khanna-trades (tier: LOW), pelosi-trades (tier: LOW), tepper-13f... |
| DHR | 4 | +11.2% | conviction (tier: MEDIUM), druckenmiller-13f (tier: MEDIUM), loeb-13f (tier: LOW), mccaul-trades |
| TSM | 7 | +8.7% | altimeter-13f, aschenbrenner-13f (tier: LOW), coatue-13f, druckenmiller-13f (tier: MEDIUM), greenoaks-13f... |
| MSFT | 3 | +24.5% | ackman-13f, coatue-13f, conviction (tier: MEDIUM) |
| UBER | 4 | +0.9% | altimeter-13f, khanna-trades (tier: LOW), pelosi-trades (tier: LOW), tepper-13f |
| META | 5 | +22.4% | ackman-13f, altimeter-13f, atreides-13f, bench-signals-trail (tier: MEDIUM), tepper-13f |
| CVS | 5 | -7.4% | bench-signals (tier: HIGH), bench-signals-trail (tier: MEDIUM), claude-trader (tier: MEDIUM), claude-trader-trail (tier: LOW), yolo (tier: HIGH) |
| AMAT | 3 | +19.0% | altimeter-13f, coatue-13f, core70-slice3-ex30-v1 |
| INTC | 3 | +26.1% | atreides-13f, coatue-13f, pelosi-trades (tier: LOW) |
🌐 Cross-thesis hits — 3
Tickers surfaced by 3+ independent autonomous-research traces. The "shows up everywhere" signal.
| Ticker | Company | # traces | Theses |
|---|---|---|---|
| COHR | Coherent Corp (formerly II-VI) | 4 | quantum computing physical bot...; military drone supply chain an...; HBM high-bandwidth memory equi... |
| LIN | Linde plc | 3 | quantum computing physical bot...; LNG liquefaction shipping and ...; helium supply chain for semico... |
| APD | Air Products and Chemicals | 3 | quantum computing physical bot...; LNG liquefaction shipping and ...; helium supply chain for semico... |
🚀 Monsters — top 12
Parabolic stocks: golden cross + 50%+ above SMA200. Top by 3-month change.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 3M | 30D | vs SMA200 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BWET | $998.30 | 73.2 | +390.9% | +71.1% | +324% |
| IOVA | $14.62 | 73.2 | +245.6% | +73.4% | +192% |
| MRNA | $225.00 | 72.1 | +229.6% | +65.9% | +210% |
| ZCSH | $32.02 | 48.2 | +147.4% | -4.2% | +141% |
| KOD | $99.87 | 83.3 | +141.8% | +195.7% | +168% |
| TEAM | $206.79 | 66.2 | +132.7% | +16.3% | +83% |
| ASST | $27.80 | 53.3 | +124.9% | +4.2% | +76% |
| CDNA | $63.67 | 61.7 | +123.3% | +27.3% | +113% |
| GRAL | $140.58 | 67.8 | +95.3% | +81.4% | +88% |
| P | $154.49 | 81.2 | +94.7% | +59.2% | +92% |
| TXG | $80.65 | 53.0 | +88.7% | +19.9% | +122% |
| CVI | $58.02 | 73.6 | +87.3% | +21.6% | +76% |
🎯 Entry + Volume setups — top 7
Good entry zone (uptrend, not extended, at a volume shelf) AND volume confirming. The dip-at-shelf buy radar.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA200 | Froth | RelVol | Zone | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOT-USD | $1.21 | 56 | +15.1% | -32.7% | 1.3× | VA | crypto |
| MDT | $88.48 | 48 | +0.1% | -0.7% | 1.4× | POC | biotech-scan, healthcare |
| NTLA | $13.07 | 58 | +1.0% | -1.8% | 1.5× | VA | biotech, biotech-scan |
| NTES | $124.24 | 58 | +1.3% | -1.0% | 1.3× | VA | china-tech |
| IFNNY | $65.95 | 47 | +2.4% | +1.8% | 2.2× | VA | ai-power, electricity |
| CME | $280.56 | 62 | +0.7% | +2.2% | 1.4× | VA | bargain-bin, financials |
| CNH | $11.39 | 33 | +1.8% | +2.5% | 1.5× | VA | watching |
📈 Breakout + Volume — top 6
Pushing to highs / above the volume shelf WITH a volume spike. The breakout buy radar.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA200 | →52wkH | RelVol | Kind | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUM | $431.87 | 66 | +45.5% | -5.4% | 3.9× | highs | monster-discoveries |
| SKYY | $174.88 | 69 | +30.7% | -0.0% | 3.3× | highs | cloud-etfs, cloud-saas |
| PLTR | $209.05 | 76 | +37.2% | -0.3% | 1.6× | highs | ai-infra, ai-scan |
| TEVA | $41.10 | 65 | +21.2% | -2.2% | 2.7× | highs | trace-iran-war-second-and-third-order-effects |
| BUG | $50.08 | 70 | +48.0% | -0.1% | 1.6× | highs | cybersec |
| OGN | $13.81 | 65 | +24.9% | -0.1% | 1.5× | highs | monster-discoveries |
⚠️ Distribution / trim watch — top 3
Mechanism: high-volume churn while EXTENDED (overbought + stretched). Running hot — trim into strength, don't add. ⤵ = rolling over on volume.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | Froth | vs SMA20 | RelVol | 7D | In |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAUT | $2.25 | 76 | +25.8% | +68.7% | 3.0× | +14.8% | biotech-capital-cycle |
| QSI ⤵ | $1.53 | 71 | +11.9% | +53.4% | 5.4× | -1.3% | biotech-capital-cycle |
| ATZ.TO | $146.91 | 70 | +14.3% | +19.9% | 3.4× | +19.8% | war-sensitivity |
Sources
research/market-engine/data/summaries/*.json(precomputed settled-close summaries — all prices/RSI/percentages above)
Re-run with deno task hot-signal-rollup.
No direct external sources are attached to this read.