Historical crypto/geopolitics and miner-transition research. No current market claim is adopted.

Why now

Review archival scope only. Preserve the existing closure date, reason, history and calls; do not reconstruct unreviewed historical thesis details.

In scope

Identity, topic and existing closed disposition

Out of scope

Fresh thesis validation · Reopening or regrading historical calls

Expected horizon

Historical window; exact original timing remains in the archive and is not re-established by this review.

What supports it

No fresh supporting-evidence verdict; original source history is preserved.

What would break it

No live claim to invalidate; a new case requires fresh evidence and its own failure tests.

Next review On condition · No standing review. A user-requested historical audit or a new evidence-backed successor is required.

Closed 2026-05-23 · Folded into ai-power-bottleneck via R31-A execution of the R23-G capacity action pack. The original April 10 thesis (`BTC > $75K with RSI > 65 confirms trend change`) held on price but not on RSI; the action moved to miner equities (MSTR/RIOT/MARA/CLSK) trading as AI-infrastructure, not as a crypto-bloc reacting to geopolitics. R17 + R20 + R23-G converged on the FOLD recommendation; R31-A executed it. CLSK + RIOT were already present in ai-power-bottleneck.key_tickers from a prior touch — no re-add needed. Capital-rotation-vs-gold hypothesis survives as a cross-reference on the renamed gold-crash. See research/perspectives/2026-05-03-crypto-geopolitics/log.md 2026-05-23 entry. Reopen trigger: BTC > $80K RSI > 65 sustained AND a fresh geopolitics catalyst confirms (filed to memory at reference_crypto_geopolitics_reopen_trigger).