Livestock Disease — New World Screwworm → Cattle-Supply Shock & Protein Rotation

perspective

Livestock Disease — New World Screwworm → Cattle-Supply Shock & Protein Rotation

active thesis

status monitoring priority medium thesis tickers 7 scan-mentioned tickers 3 events 14 latest

A biological supply shock to the US cattle herd (New World Screwworm, first US case in ~60 years confirmed by USDA APHIS 2026-06-03 — a calf in Zavala County, TX) layered on an already-fragile base (herd at a 75-year low; record beef ~$6.89/lb ground; southern border closed to live-animal imports since May 2025). Transmits two ways: (1) ANIMAL-HEALTH DEMAND PULL (clean, durable leg) — livestock herd-health/parasiticide spend; cleanest listed beneficiary is ELAN (Elanco), livestock-weighted (~47% farm animal, cattle ~23% of revenue), the only name with a named emergency-authorized NWS product (Negasunt/Tanidil), +15% rev growth, raised FY26 guide, analyst strong_buy — and it also has poultry+swine segments, so it WINS WHICHEVER PROTEIN WINS (structural cross-protein hedge). (2) PROTEIN ROTATION (conditional leg) — a real cattle-supply contraction lifts beef and pushes substitution to chicken/pork/eggs. KEY DISCIPLINED FINDING (2026-06-04): the rotation is NOT in the tape yet — the whole protein/animal-health complex is in a CORRELATED drawdown (poultry PPC -43%, WING -63%, plant-based BYND -90% from highs) under a consumer/GLP-1 bear that swamps the beef signal; there is no…

Watch for: ESCALATION (→ high): any screwworm detection beyond the USDA 20km infested zone, multiple detections, or spread into the feedlot/cow-calf belt — the trigger that produces hurt-down/alternatives-up dispersion. DE-ESCALATION (→ monitoring/retire): USDA contains it (sterile-fly eradication, as in 1966) with no further out-of-zone detections → animal-health tailwind stays modest and the rotation never fires. ELAN Q2 2026 print (~early Aug): cattle-segment growth, whether NWS parasiticide use shows in the numbers, deleveraging/clean-EPS progress, Pet Health (the larger 52% half). Re-run the livestock-disease tape on any escalation to confirm dispersion before upgrading priority or paper-trading.

macro3d agoas of
paradigm track record 83% · 2.5/3 verdicts macro · high confidence · small sample (n=3) US Energy Dominance: HITGold Crash: HITWar Ends Playbook: PARTIAL

The thesis basket — the 7 tickers this perspective actually tracks. Everything else it has touched is folded below.

ELAN $23.61 -8.6% 30d coming into play PAHC $34.63 +4.0% 30d retreating NEOG $11.87 +15.6% 30d in trend ZTS $72.97 -4.7% 30d retreating TSN $58.61 +1.4% 30d coming into play HRL $24.02 -5.4% 30d coming into play SFD $22.61 -11.1% 30d coming into play

The Thread

The thesis as it unfolds — by source type (the symbol grid above is the current state).

Recent Shifts

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Signals

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Research

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Calendar & Lifecycle

8