Jun 16
Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle
perspective
Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle
active thesis
status monitoring priority low thesis tickers 16 scan-mentioned tickers 173 events 37 latest
EVOLVED. Original 19-trade diversified rotation thesis (war winds down → consumer/housing/India/airlines re-rate) collapsed to 3 winners + 16 losers per 2026-04-26 retrospective. The durable signal underneath was risk-on regime + AI super-cycle resumption (different driver, same direction). Concentrated long: AMZN +29% 30D RSI 73, GOOGL +28% RSI 71, NVDA +29% RSI 71, MSFT +20% RSI 65, EWY +33%, EWT +27%. 13 closed branches retired with verdicts (ITB/XHB/INDA/NKE/HOOD/W/RH/JETS/UAE/GLD/ADBE/IBM/COPX). Codified meta-lesson: name a theme, name 3-5 picks max — don't diversify across mediocre theses. Identity status: renamed-stable-id. This remains under stable id war-ends-playbook until a deliberate capacity-aware identity migration retires/forks the original scenario archive. DOWNGRADED 2026-06-04 (active->monitoring, priority high->low): capacity-hygiene pass (lane was 11 active vs the editorial soft-cap of 8). The 'deliberate capacity-aware identity migration' this entry itself flagged as pending is now executed as a demote-to-monitoring — the durable risk-on / AI-supercycle signal lives on ai-power-bottleneck + the AI-infra lane (where the actual concentrated longs are), so this…
Watch for: AMZN > $265 sustained, AMZN RSI > 80 (trim), GOOGL/NVDA/MSFT all RSI > 65 sustained, EWY > $158 / EWT > $89, VXX > $35 (mega-tech first to give back), USO < $110 (only-then re-evaluate closed branches), NVDA Q1 FY27 earnings 2026-05-28 (capex commentary). CYBERSEC LEG (added 2026-05-20 R15): CRWD earnings 2026-06-03 + PANW 2026-06-02 + ZS 2026-06-04 binary catalysts; FTNT close < $115 OR CIBR < $76 OR HACK < $86 (cohort technical breakdown); >=3 cohort sell-side downgrades within 5 trading days (DZ Bank FTNT cut 2026-05-19 is leading edge); catalyst-exhaustion (all three June earnings beat-and-guide but cohort fails new highs within 5 trading days post-prints).
paradigm track record 83% · 2.5/3 verdicts macro · high confidence · small sample (n=3)
The thesis basket — the 16 tickers this perspective actually tracks. Everything else it has touched is folded below.
Seen alongside in scans (32 shown of 157) — symbols that appear with this perspective, not the thesis basket
Show all 157 ticker links
$AAL$AAOI$AAPL$ACGL$ADBE$AEHR$ALAB$AMAT$AMD$AMKR$AMPX$AOSL$APLD$ARM$ASHR$ASML$ASX$AVAV$AVGO$BA$BABA$BE$BEAM$BESI$CEG$CF$CLSK$COHR$COP$COPX$CORZ$CRCL$CRDO$CROX$CRWV$CVX$DAL$DBA$DD$DELL$DHR$DHT$DIA$DPZ$DRAM$DRSHF$DVN$EEM$ENTG$EOG$ETN$EWZ$FCX$FN$FRO$FXI$GAP$GD$GDX$GEV$GLD$HAL$HIMS$HOOD$IBIT$IBM$INDA$INSW$INTC$IQV$IREN$ITB$IWM$JBL$JETS$KLAC$KTOS$KWEB$KYMR$LEU$LHX$LITE$LMT$LPTH$LRCX$LULU$MARA$MEDP$META$MOG.A$MP$MPWR$MRNA$MRVL$MSTR$MTUM$MU$NBIS$NEE$NET$NKE$NOC$NTR$OIH$OKTA$ON$ONDS$OXY$PL$PLTR$POWL$QQQ$RCAT$RH$RIOT$RKLB$RSP$RTX$SBUX$SIL$SKHY$SKM$SLB$SLV$SMTC$SNDK$SPY$STNG$STX$TECK$TER$TLT$TMO$TSEM$TSLA$TWST$UAE$UMAC$USO$UUP$VICR$VIXY$VPG$VRT$VTI$VTV$WDC$XBI$XHB$XLC$XLE$XLI$XLK$XLU$XLY$XOM$XOP
no live data (1) — unresolved, delisted, or non-US symbols
The Thread
The thesis as it unfolds — by source type (the symbol grid above is the current state).
Recent Shifts
2Research
1Captures
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Calendar & Lifecycle
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Global Markets Investor — KOSPI -9%, trading halted; SK Hynix -15%, its largest daily drop on record
Global Markets Investor — KOSPI -9%, trading halted; SK Hynix -15%, its largest daily drop on record
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Desk commentary
Authored analysis and challenge notes tied to Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle.
Vertical: Memory & Storage — read the −15% correctly