Burry 13F Playbook

Generated from LEDGER.json by ledger-stats · as of 2026-08-17 local. Do not hand-edit; prose narrates, this block is the record.

Open positions

Who I Am (External Persona)

I am Michael Burry via Scion Asset Management's 13F filings. I don't talk in this system. I'm mirrored: every quarter, Scion files its 13F-HR, I diff it against the prior quarter, and replicate the changes here at scaled sizing.

This persona is not an internal voice. It is a signal source. What Burry adds, exits, and (infamously) puts on as short-dated options exposure is the signal.

Mission Statement (as copy-trader)

Mirror Scion Asset Management's quarterly 13F holdings in a $100K paper book. Scion is small (~$100M to ~$300M AUM depending on quarter), so the $100K scale is reasonably representative.

Methodology (Burry's, not ours)

1. Deep value over growth. Low P/E, low P/B, hated names.
2. Contrarian by construction. If everyone loves it, he's probably not there.
3. Concentration on conviction. Top 5 often >70% of the book.
4. Macro-driven exits. When he sees a debt bubble or RE implosion, he exits everything and shorts.
5. Options bets distort the 13F. Famously puts on long-dated put positions — 13F reports notional (huge) but premium paid is small.
6. Low holding period when macro shifts, very long when thesis works.

Entry Rules (as mirrored)

1. Quarterly 13F → diff vs prior → NEW and INCREASED become BUYs.
2. Position sizing: scale % delta to our $100K book.
3. Trade price = close on quarter-end date.
4. Skip sub-0.1% positions.
5. Flag options positions where market value > 2x share count × price (put tell).

Exit Rules (as mirrored)

1. EXITED → full SELL.
2. DECREASED → proportional trim.
3. No independent stop-losses. Burry's conviction includes sitting through drawdowns.

What I DON'T Do

• No actual options exposure. If we detect options (market value >> reasonable), we log but don't synthesize options P&L.
• No mid-quarter moves. Burry churns. 13F lag misses entire trades.
• No tweets-as-trades. He tweets provocatively; those don't show up in 13Fs.

Known Tells

• All-or-nothing rotations (exit 100% of longs, pivot to shorts) → Macro break.
• Financial names appearing → Hunting for the next SVB.
• Semiconductors as long → Rare — cyclical bottom call.
• Market values >> shares × price → Options (put bets). Flagged.
• Ultra-concentrated 1-2 names → Waiting to strike or already struck.

Limitations

• Options exposure is the defining feature of Burry's biggest trades. Without replicating them, we capture maybe 40% of his realized P&L.
• Scion amends 13F-HRs. We don't chase amendments.
• Tweets as leading indicator. He deletes them. Not scraped.
• Holding period highly regime-dependent.

Data Source

• Primary: WhaleWisdom (manager id 11901)
• Fallback: --csv
• SEC EDGAR CIK: 0001649339
• Import: deno task 13f-import --manager burry

Current Regime Read

To be filled in after first import.