Yolo-Insider-Probe Playbook (forked scientist)

Generated from LEDGER.json by ledger-stats · as of 2026-08-17 local. Do not hand-edit; prose narrates, this block is the record.

Open positions

Forked from: yolo · Seeded: 2026-07-26 (user-approved fork of the 2026-07-26 session's fork proposal — the first under the disciplined-scientists rule) · A/B protocol: money-loop §3 — run beside unchanged yolo out-of-sample; promote/kill on evidence, never merge back by vibes.

The ONE changed rule (the hypothesis)

Parent yolo's golden signal is RSI < 30 + insider buying, golden cross intact. This fork drops the golden-cross-intact requirement:

Entry: RSI < 30 + material insider buying — regardless of chart damage (death cross / collapse state allowed).

Hypothesis under test: the insider-buying signal alone carries edge on damaged charts, where the discount is biggest. The motivating setup: TSLA 2026-07-24 — RSI 28.1, $205.3M unchanged insider buying, death-crossed, which parent yolo correctly passed on under its rules.

Everything else is INHERITED from yolo — deliberately

• Exits: identical to yolo (lib/exit-rules.ts aliases this book to yolo's rules): hard −20% stop, +20% target, +15% partial-trim watch. A fork changes exactly one rule so the A/B isolates it.
• Sizing: probe units — 2.5% of book ($2,500) per entry, half-again on a second qualifying signal, never more than 5% in one name. Damaged charts earn probe size, not conviction size.
• Universe, cash discipline, and session protocol per research/playbook/CADENCE.md (Tier A daily) and the base rules in research/trading/paper/README.md.
• Disciplined-scientist rule applies here too: this book's written rules are THIS file; an idea outside them is a new fork proposal, not a trade.

Current Regime Read

2026-08-13: This is a complacent, near-the-highs tape, not a fear flush. VIX is 14.63 (CALM), VIXY is $18.86 at RSI 34.3, and SPY is $777.88 at RSI 67.2, just 0.19% below its 52-week high. Translation: no volatility discount is doing this fork any favors. More importantly, the actual experiment's first gate is empty: the fresh insider-universe and tech-insider-buys summaries contain zero names below RSI 30. No oversold print, no probe. Easy.

Self-Critique

The book is worth $100,215.08, up 0.22%, with one open position and zero closed trades. TSLA is +8.6%, which is nice and proves absolutely nothing at n=1. What's working is rule purity: this fork has taken the one damaged-chart setup it was created to test and has not diluted the cohort with almost-signals. What's not working is sample size, but boredom is not a research result and a forced trade would make the experiment worse, not faster.

Next Session Priors

• TSLA: $339.96 versus $313.03 entry. The +15% trim-watch is $359.98 (5.9% above the current price), the +20% target is $375.64 (10.5% above), and the hard stop remains $250.42. No freelancing between those levels.
• Entry gate: first find RSI below 30 in the two insider universes, then verify material insider buying from a current filing/scan receipt. Do not carry an old dollar figure forward as though it were a fresh filing.
• Regime: VIX 14.63 means no fear tailwind. A volatility spike changes the risk context, not the fork's two-part entry rule.

Session log

2026-07-26 — charter session (Sunday, on the 07-24 close)

OBSERVE: TSLA RSI 28.1, $205.3M insider buying unchanged, death-crossed, regime collapse — precisely the setup this book exists to take and the parent exists to refuse. DECIDE: BUY probe unit $2,500. REFLECT: n=1 means nothing; the A/B needs a cohort. Watch for the next RSI<30+insider name.

2026-08-04 — Still Waiting on Cohort #2

THINK: One position, one week and change in: TSLA at $327.35 vs $313.03 entry, +4.57%, +$114 unrealized. Not a trade, a data point sitting there quietly not blowing up. Stop's at $250.42 (-20%), target's $375.64 (+20%), trim-watch is $359.98 (+15%) — we're nowhere near any of them. Nothing to defend, nothing to cut.

ANALYZE: Ran the actual hypothesis test — insider-scan --buying across both insider-universe (59 names) and tech-insider-buys (42 names). Same three names light up both lists: TSLA (RSI 39.4 per the summary, not the 31 the scan tool's own short-window calc spat out — summaries are price truth here, and even the tool's own number missed the bar), CRSP (RSI 57.6), ASAN (RSI 63.9). Every single one is a death cross, and every single one is sitting well above 30 RSI. The whole POINT of this book is RSI<30 + insider buying on a damaged chart — none of today's insider-buying names are actually oversold. Golden cross doesn't even enter into it; the bar isn't there to clear.

DECIDE: PASS on all three. No new entries — the rule didn't fire, full stop. TSLA's existing position isn't a re-add either: RSI 39.4 isn't a fresh qualifying signal, it's the same signal from two weeks ago drifting further from oversold as the stock bounces off its low. Not touching ASAN — RSI 64, insider buying didn't stop that one from round-tripping before and it's not the setup regardless.

REFLECT: Cohort still sits at n=1. That's fine — the hypothesis doesn't get tested by forcing marginal entries, it gets tested by waiting for the real setup and then taking every one of them. Today just isn't a day the market handed one over. Watching the same three insider-buying names for the day RSI actually cracks 30 again.

Trades Executed: None — no entries qualified, no stops hit.

2026-08-13 — No RSI, No Receipt, No Send

THINK: One probe, still alive: TSLA is $339.96 versus $313.03 entry, +8.6%, and the whole book is $100,215.08. Exit-check says HOLD. The inherited stop is $250.42, trim-watch $359.98, target $375.64 — price is not touching any of them. Outside the book, VIX is 14.63 and SPY is sitting 0.19% off its high. This is not a panic tape begging the insider-dip fork to deploy.

ANALYZE: Ran the rule in the right order. Fresh 2026-08-13 summaries cover all 59 insider-universe names and all 42 tech-insider-buys names. Number below RSI 30: zero. That kills the entry before the insider leg even needs to break a tie. The last verified scan's two material buyers, TSLA and ASAN, are now RSI 47.4 and 70.2 respectively; neither is remotely the setup. TSLA is not a re-add just because I already own it. A second unit needs a second qualifying signal, not attachment to the first one.

DECIDE: PASS. Hold TSLA; zero buys, zero sells, zero trims. The one changed rule allows damaged charts, not missing RSI triggers. Cash stays $97,500.

REFLECT: Cohort remains n=1, and today's clean zero is useful: the fork is not secretly a generic insider-following book. Next session, check RSI first. Only if a name actually cracks 30 do I spend the extra evidence cost verifying that the insider buying is current and material. No rule change earned.

Trades Executed: