Article published Aug 14, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.
Editorial Note: AMZN at $245.34 RSI 51 has resolved the SMA200 test flagged on 06/26 in the bulls' favor — price held at that test ($232.77 vs $232.69 on 06/26) and has since recovered +5.4% to $245.34, reclaiming both SMA20 ($240.19, +2.1%) and pulling further above SMA200 ($233.33, +5.1%). RSI has recovered from the near-oversold 40 to a neutral 51. Trend is still tagged "weak-down" but the regime has shifted from "pullback" to "basing" — consistent with the "if SMA200 holds, this is the risk/reward inflection" call from the prior read. 7D +0.91%, 30D +1.59%, and 3M +2.27% are all modest positive, a marked improvement from the -14.41% 30D print two weeks ago. From 52wk high, the gap has narrowed slightly to -11.93% (was -16.47%). The AWS structural thesis remains intact and the SMA200 hold is the constructive technical read.
2026-07-17 tape note: Essentially flat, holding the basing pattern. AMZN $247.23, RSI 51.4 (unchanged), still +2.1% above SMA20. 7D +0.77%, 30D +1.16%, 3M -0.42% — all modest, matching the prior "basing" read. From 52wk high -11.25% (marginally narrower). No divergence; AWS thesis intact. No new fundamentals re-researched.
2026-07-25 tape note (Friday 2026-07-24 close): The basing pattern has broken. AMZN $232.11, RSI 37.2 (down sharply from 51.4) — back BELOW SMA20 (-4.8%, vs +2.1% above on 07/17) and now marginally below SMA200 (-1.1%, vs +5.6% above). 7D has reversed hard to -6.12% (from +0.77%), 30D flipped negative to -0.92%, and 3M has deepened to -12.08%. From 52wk high, the gap has widened to -16.12% (from -11.25%) — the regime label reads "pullback" again, undoing the 07/11 upgrade to "basing." Golden cross still intact (structural positive unchanged); the 35-share @ $204.53 position remains profitable but has given back gains. No new fundamentals re-researched — this is a tape reversal, not a thesis break, but the SMA200 hold flagged 07/11 no longer stands confirmed.
Recent developments: Amazon has scheduled its Q2 2026 earnings conference call — Business Wire, July 25. Date not yet in this file; treat as upcoming, not a result.
2026-07-28 tape note: The pullback has continued rather than reversed. AMZN $230.86, RSI 36.3 (down slightly from 37.2) — still below both SMA20 (-5.1%, widened from -4.8%) and SMA50 (-6.8%, roughly flat), and now further below SMA200 (-1.6%, from -1.1%). 7D has deepened to -6.74% (from -6.12%), 30D has slipped further negative to -3.86% (from -0.92%), and 3M is -12.23% (roughly flat vs -12.08%). From 52wk high, the gap has widened to -17.12% (from -16.12%). Golden cross still intact; regime remains "pullback," thesis flag "intact." The Q2 2026 earnings call flagged in the prior read remains scheduled, not yet reported. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-07-28 close).
2026-07-31 tape note: AMZN $271.58 (+17.64% vs $230.86), RSI 67.7 (warmed from 36.3). 7D +17.00% (turned positive from -6.74%), 30D +12.36% (turned positive from -3.86%), 3M +1.24% (turned positive from -12.23%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -2.51% (narrowed from -17.12%). Per the tape: trend "strong-up", regime "uptrend", golden cross intact. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-07-31 close). 2026-08-08 tape note: AMZN $274.48 (+1.07% vs $271.58), RSI 64 (cooled from 67.7). 7D +1.07% (moderated from +17.00%), 30D +12.67% (accelerated from +12.36%), 3M +0.66% (moderated from +1.24%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -5.07% (widened from -2.51%). Per the tape: trend "strong-up", regime "uptrend", golden cross intact. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-08-07 close). 2026-08-14 tape note: AMZN $262.65 (-4.31% vs $274.48), RSI 53.4 (cooled from 64). 7D -4.31% (turned negative from +1.07%), 30D +3.02% (moderated from +12.67%), 3M -0.56% (turned negative from +0.66%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -7.68% (widened from -5.07%). Per the tape: trend "strong-up", regime "uptrend", golden cross intact. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-08-14 close).
Quick Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 67.7 | neutral, warmed from 36.3 |
| Trend | Strong-up | Changed from Down |
| Golden cross | Yes | Intact — structural positive |
| SMA20 vs Price | +11.4% above | reversed to above |
| 7D return | +17.00% | turned positive from -6.74% |
| 30D return | +12.36% | turned positive from -3.86% |
| 3M return | +1.24% | turned positive from -12.23% |
| From 52wk High | -2.51% | Gap narrowed from -17.12% |
| HELD POSITION | 35 shares @ $204.53 avg | Still profitable, gains given back |
Action Matrix
| Scenario | Level | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Entry zone | $215–$225 | SMA50/SMA200 confluence — price now well above this zone after the SMA200 hold |
| Stop-loss | $190 | Below cost basis |
| Target (base) | $259 | Prior 52wk high — $12 away |
| Target (bull) | $280 | New high on AWS momentum |
| Current | RSI 67.7, strong-up | uptrend, -2.5% from 52wk high |
Price Data
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $262.65 |
| RSI (14) | 53.4 |
| SMA20 | $256.52 (+2.4%) |
| SMA50 | $248.17 (+5.8%) |
| SMA200 | $237.70 (+10.5%) |
| Trend | strong-up |
| Golden cross | Yes |
| Regime | uptrend |
| 7D | -4.31% |
| 30D | +3.02% |
| 3M | -0.56% |
| From 52wk High | -7.68% |
Key Changes vs 07/28
| Metric | 07/28 | 07/31 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $230.86 | $271.58 | up |
| RSI | 36.3 | 67.7 | warmed |
| SMA20 vs Price | -5.1% below | +11.4% below | reversed to above |
| 30D | -3.86% | +12.36% | turned positive |
| From 52wkHi | -17.12% | -2.51% | narrowed |
| Verdict | Tape update: price now $271.58 (+17.6% vs prior refresh), RSI 67.7, trend "strong-up", -2.5% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched this cycle. |
Research Log
| Date | Update |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | AMZN $270.64, RSI 59.9, constructive. Base target $259 exceeded. |
| 2026-06-16 | AMZN $246, RSI 43.1, below SMA20; -7.12% 30D. AWS thesis intact; wait for RSI stabilization. |
| 2026-06-26 | AMZN $232.69, RSI 40, down; -3.64% 7D, -14.41% 30D, +16.73% 3M. Continued slide — now at the SMA200 test ($232.77 ≈ price). Golden cross intact, regime "pullback." RSI 40 is the oversold watch level. Quality-dip rotation frame: if SMA200 holds, this is the risk/reward inflection. If breaks, $215-225 entry zone next. 35 shares @ $204.53 avg remain profitable. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-11 | AMZN $245.34, RSI 51, weak-down/basing; +0.91% 7D, +1.59% 30D, +2.27% 3M. SMA200 test from 06/26 resolved bullish — price now +5.1% above SMA200. Regime upgraded from "pullback" to "basing." RSI reset to neutral. -11.93% from 52wk high (narrowed from -16.47%). 35 shares @ $204.53 avg remain profitable. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-17 | AMZN $247.23, RSI 51.4, weak-down/basing; +0.77% 7D, +1.16% 30D, -0.42% 3M. Essentially flat vs 07/11 — basing regime holding steady, no fresh deterioration. -11.25% from 52wk high. 35 shares @ $204.53 avg remain profitable. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-25 | AMZN $232.11, RSI 37.2, down/pullback; -6.12% 7D, -0.92% 30D, -12.08% 3M. Basing pattern broken — back below both SMA20 (-4.8%) and SMA200 (-1.1%). -16.12% from 52wk high (widened from -11.25%). 35 shares @ $204.53 avg remain profitable. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-28 | AMZN $230.86, RSI 36.3, down/pullback; -6.74% 7D, -3.86% 30D, -12.23% 3M. Pullback continuing, no reversal signal — still below SMA20 (-5.1%) and SMA200 (-1.6%). -17.12% from 52wk high (widened from -16.12%). 35 shares @ $204.53 avg remain profitable. Q2 2026 earnings call scheduled, not yet reported. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-31 | AMZN $271.58, RSI 67.7, strong-up; 7D +17.00%; 30D +12.36%; 3M +1.24%; -2.51% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-08 | AMZN $274.48, RSI 64, strong-up; 7D +1.07%; 30D +12.67%; 3M +0.66%; -5.07% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-14 | AMZN $262.65, RSI 53.4, strong-up; 7D -4.31%; 30D +3.02%; 3M -0.56%; -7.68% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-31 tape — war-sensitivity.
- Prior-cycle history: this file's dated update log (refreshed each full scan).