Conviction: Medium (dollar-dependent) Status: Researching

2026-07-31 tape note: GLD $371.54 (+0.59% vs $369.37), RSI 45.9 (warmed from 43.5). 7D -0.10% (moderated from -1.45%), 30D +0.25% (roughly flat from +0.21%), 3M -12.20% (deepened from -11.51%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -27.11% (essentially flat from -27.53%). Per the tape: trend "strong-down", regime "pullback", no golden cross. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-07-31 close).

2026-08-08 tape note: Both gold and miners have run hard together. GLD $398.47 (+7.25% vs $371.54), RSI 65.3 (warmed from 45.9), now +6.3% above SMA20 (reversed from -0.4% below) and -3.2% below SMA200. 7D +7.25% (accelerated from -0.10%), 30D +6.41% (accelerated from +0.25%), 3M -8.14% (moderated from -12.20%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -23.63% (narrowed from -27.11%). GDX $89.89 (+21.31% vs $74.10 on 07/31), RSI 70.3 (up from 46.2), +18.1% above SMA20, -28.43% from 52wk high (narrowed from -36.76%). GDX's RSI now clears GLD's by 5 points and both ETFs are running hot — the miner-lead signal this file tracks is firmly back on, with GDX pushing into overbought territory (RSI 70.3) while GLD is still only neutral-firm. News not pulled for this move; no new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-08-07 close). 2026-08-14 tape note: Both names have paused after last week's sharp run, though GDX's RSI still clears GLD's. GLD $401.48 (+0.76% vs $398.47), RSI 63.3 (cooled from 65.3), now +4.8% above SMA20 (narrowed from +6.3%). 7D +0.76% (moderated from +7.25%), 30D +7.82% (accelerated from +6.41%), 3M -3.79% (moderated from -8.14%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -21.73% (narrowed from -23.63%). GDX $89.97 (+0.09% vs $89.89), RSI 66.4 (cooled from 70.3, off overbought), +11.9% above SMA20 (narrowed sharply from +18.1%), -24.67% from 52wk high (narrowed from -28.43%). GDX's RSI lead over GLD has narrowed to 3.1 points (from 5) — the miner-lead signal remains intact but is no longer widening. News not pulled for this move; no new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-08-14 close).

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Editorial Note

GDX is now outperforming GLD again — miners leading physical gold. GDX is +4.0% above SMA20 at RSI 52.9, while GLD sits -1.6% below SMA20 at RSI 43.5. GLD pulled back sharply: -4.97% 30D, -13.42% 3M, now -21.99% from 52wk high. GDX is faring better: +0.11% 30D, -7.15% 3M, -25.55% from 52wk high. The recovery stall observed on 2026-05-29 has extended — GLD has drifted further from its SMA20. However, GDX's outperformance vs GLD (RSI 52.9 vs 43.5, vs SMA20 +4.0% vs -1.6%) is the same miner-leading-physical signal that historically precedes recoveries. Watch GLD $439 for upside confirmation. Catalyst watch (UUP < 27.40) remains the key trigger for re-engagement.

[TAPE-VS-THESIS, 2026-07-11] The miner-lead signal this profile was tracking has reversed. GDX RSI (42.4) is now BELOW GLD RSI (42.9) for the first time in this file's history, and both are now below their SMA20 (GLD -0.6%, GDX -3.6%) — GDX went from leading (+4.0% vs SMA20, RSI 52.9 on 6/16) to lagging. Both engine thesis flag tags read "no-view." This is the opposite of the "precedes recoveries" pattern the note above is built on; do not treat the recovery-thesis as active without re-verifying the miner-lead signal.

[TAPE-VS-THESIS, 2026-07-17] GDX's lag has deepened further. GLD $368.41, RSI 40.0 (-2.28% 7D, -4.83% 30D, -27.72% from 52wk high); GDX $71.32, RSI 36.9 (-5.57% 7D, -13.56% 30D, -39.14% from 52wk high). GDX is still trailing GLD on RSI (36.9 vs 40.0) and remains further below its SMA20 (-6.0% vs GLD's -1.5%). Both thesis flag tags still read "no-view." The miner-lead recovery signal remains absent — no new catalyst identified this cycle.

[TAPE-VS-THESIS, 2026-07-25, Friday 2026-07-24 close] The miner-lead signal has flipped back on. GLD $371.90, RSI 44.7 (+0.95% 7D, +1.63% 30D, -27.11% from 52wk high), now only -0.3% below SMA20 (narrowed from -1.5%). GDX $75.23, RSI 47.3 (+5.48% 7D, +0.86% 30D, -35.98% from 52wk high), and now +0.5% ABOVE its SMA20 (reclaimed from -6.0% below) — for the first time since 06/16, GDX's RSI (47.3) sits above GLD's (44.7) and GDX is above its SMA20 while GLD is not. This is the same "miners leading physical gold" configuration the pattern in this file treats as a recovery precursor. Both thesis flag tags still read "no-view" per the engine — this is a technical re-emergence of the signal, not a fundamental catalyst confirmation. Worth watching whether it holds into the next refresh.

[TAPE-VS-THESIS, 2026-07-28] The signal has partly faded. GLD $369.37, RSI 43.5 (-1.45% 7D, +0.21% 30D, -11.51% 3M, -27.53% from 52wk high), now -1.0% below SMA20 (widened from -0.3%). GDX $74.21, RSI 45.7 (+0.03% 7D, -1.94% 30D, -13.93% 3M, -36.67% from 52wk high), and has lost its SMA20 reclaim — now -0.7% below (from +0.5% above). GDX's RSI (45.7) still sits above GLD's (43.5), so the RSI half of the miner-lead signal persists, but the vs-SMA20 half has reversed — both ETFs are now below their SMA20, not just GLD. Both thesis flag tags still read "no-view." Treat the 07/25 recovery-precursor read as weakened, not confirmed. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-07-28 close).

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Quick Snapshot

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Price Data

Key Changes vs 2026-07-28

Key Levels

The Pattern

GDX leading GLD is the single most important signal. Historically, when miners outperform physical gold, it means:

1. Market expects gold price recovery (miners leverage the move)
2. Risk appetite is returning (miners are equities, not safe-haven)
3. The recovery has legs — not just a dead cat bounce

GDX has again pulled ahead of GLD on relative RSI and vs-SMA20 metrics. GLD needs to reclaim $439 to confirm the uptrend. Watch the UUP dollar index trigger.

Entry Strategy

Cross-References

• Gold Crash perspective (April 10)
• War Ends Playbook perspective (April 10) — gold is trade #5

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Research Log

Sources

• Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-31 tape — macro-commodities.
• Prior-cycle history: this file's dated update log (refreshed each full scan).