Conviction: Low (speculative recovery) Status: Researching

2026-07-31 tape note: INDA $49.80 (+0.85% vs $49.38), RSI 58.8 (warmed from 55.1). 7D +3.71% (accelerated from +1.23%), 30D +1.20% (accelerated from +0.41%), 3M +1.38% (accelerated from +0.71%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -10.27% (narrowed from -11.03%). Per the tape: trend "weak-up", regime "basing", no golden cross. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-07-31 close). 2026-08-08 tape note: INDA $50.37 (+1.14% vs $49.80), RSI 61 (warmed from 58.8). 7D +1.13% (moderated from +3.71%), 30D +3.53% (accelerated from +1.20%), 3M +1.05% (moderated from +1.38%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -9.35% (narrowed from -10.27%). Per the tape: trend "weak-up", regime "basing", death cross confirmed. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-08-07 close).

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Editorial Note

India is staging a genuine recovery. INDA at $49.41, RSI 60.1, now +2.8% above SMA20 ($48.08). +3.25% over 7D and +3.28% over 30D — the stall flagged on May 29 has broken to the upside. RSI 60.1 is constructive and trending higher without being overbought. -11.78% from 52wk high still leaves meaningful recovery runway. The thesis (India oversold relative to fundamentals; risk-on re-rate) is beginning to show. This is the first clean above-SMA20 with bullish RSI since tracking began. Not a chase-now signal — $49.41 is already above the $47–49 entry zone — but if the breakout holds, the prior target range of $53–56 is the next waypoint.

2026-07-11 tape note: The breakout stalled rather than continued toward $53–56. INDA $49.30 (flat, -0.2% since 06-16), RSI cooled to 52.8 (from 60.1), and price is back to essentially flat vs SMA20 (+0.1%, vs +2.8% on 06-16). Not a breakdown — 30D still +3.16% — but momentum has gone sideways at the SMA20 rather than extending. We now have SMA200 data (previously flagged as needed): INDA is -3.9% below SMA200 with a death cross, so the multi-year trend is still bearish underneath this basing/recovery attempt.

2026-07-17 tape note: Still sideways. INDA $48.91 (essentially flat, -0.8% since 07-11), RSI 49.2 (roughly flat), now -0.6% below SMA20 (vs +0.1% above two weeks ago) — a marginal slip, not a breakdown. 30D -1.35% (turned slightly negative), -11.87% from 52wk high. Regime now tagged "basing." Death cross vs SMA200 persists (-4.4%). No new fundamentals re-researched; the sideways chop continues.

2026-07-25 tape note (Friday 2026-07-24 close): The chop has tilted lower. INDA $48.02 (-1.8% vs $48.91), RSI 42.4 (down from 49.2) — now -1.8% below SMA20 (widened from -0.6%) and -6.0% below SMA200 (widened from -4.4%, death cross persists). 7D has flipped negative to -1.82% (from +0.45%), 30D deepened to -3.24% (from -1.35%), 3M roughly flat at -3.15%. -14.18% from 52wk high (widened from -11.87%). No new fundamentals re-researched; the basing regime is still tagged by the engine but this cycle's tape is the weakest reading since tracking began.

2026-07-28 tape note: The chop has tilted back higher. INDA $49.38 (+2.8% vs $48.02), RSI 55.1 (up sharply from 42.4) — has reclaimed SMA20 (+0.9%, from -1.8% below) and the SMA200 gap has narrowed to -3.3% (from -6.0%). 7D has flipped positive to +1.23% (from -1.82%), 30D flipped positive to +0.41% (from -3.24%), 3M flipped positive to +0.71% (from -3.15%). -11.03% from 52wk high (improved from -14.18%). No new fundamentals re-researched; regime now tagged "basing" — this is the strongest reading since the 06/16 breakout attempt, though still inside the multi-cycle sideways range. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-07-28 close). 2026-08-14 tape note: INDA $49.78 (-1.17% vs $50.37), RSI 53.7 (cooled from 61). 7D -1.17% (turned negative from +1.13%), 30D +2.18% (moderated from +3.53%), 3M +3.73% (accelerated from +1.05%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -9.95% (widened from -9.35%). Per the tape: trend "weak-up", regime "basing", death cross confirmed. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-08-14 close).

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Price Data (2026-08-14 tape)

Key Changes vs 2026-07-28

Entry Strategy

Notes

• Not in any watchlist yet — consider adding to geopolitical or creating an emerging-markets watchlist
• War Ends Playbook lists INDA as trade #9
• SMA200 now available: -3.9% below, death cross — multi-year trend still bearish under this basing attempt

Research Log

Sources

• Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-31 tape — war-sensitivity.
• Prior-cycle history: this file's dated update log (refreshed each full scan).