Article published Aug 14, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.
Editorial Note: LOW at $224.02 RSI 56 has staged a meaningful recovery from the May 29 lows. RSI moved from 37.1 to 56 — out of the near-oversold zone and now in neutral-to-bullish territory. Price is +4.2% above SMA20 ($215.04), a reversal from being -3.4% below SMA20 in May. The 7D +2.14% and 30D +2.75% show steady if unexciting recovery. However, 3M is still -6.09% and the stock is -23.56% from its 52-week high — the housing recovery thesis is gaining footing but not yet confirmed. The rate-cut catalyst that drove the April entry thesis has not fully materialized, but the macro backdrop appears to be improving as housing ETFs (ITB/XHB) have also broken out. Stop discipline still matters: the prior stop at $83 is irrelevant at these levels; monitor for whether this bounce can sustain above SMA20.
2026-07-11 tape check: The June bounce fully reversed. LOW is back to $211.63, RSI 41.1 (below the June 56 reading), and back BELOW SMA20 ($219.55, -3.6%) and roughly flat-to-below SMA50 ($219.70, -3.7%). 7D -3.7%, 30D -4.26%, and 3M has deteriorated from -6.09% to -13.94% — the stock is now -27.79% from its 52-week high, a new low for this drawdown. The housing-recovery-on-rate-cuts thesis has not been confirmed by the tape at any point this cycle; today's reading moves further away from confirmation, not closer.
2026-07-17 tape check: Essentially unchanged — still below SMA20. LOW $208.73 (down slightly from $211.63), RSI 41.4 (roughly flat). -3.8% below SMA20 ($216.88). 7D -1.37%, 30D -6.06% (slightly worse), 3M -17.2% (deteriorated further). -28.78% from 52wk high, a new drawdown low. The housing-recovery thesis remains unconfirmed by the tape. No new fundamentals re-researched.
2026-07-25 tape check (Friday 2026-07-24 close): Little changed, RSI warmed slightly. LOW $207.64 (essentially flat vs $208.73), RSI 44 (up from 41.4) — -2.7% below SMA20 (narrowed slightly from -3.8%). 7D -0.52% (similar to -1.37%), 30D -6.24% (roughly flat vs -6.06%), 3M -15.06% (improved from -17.2%). -30.27% from 52wk high — a new drawdown low (from -28.78%). The housing-recovery thesis remains unconfirmed by the tape. No new fundamentals re-researched.
2026-07-28 tape check: The tape has turned constructive for the first time in this file's recent history. LOW $218.24 (+5.1% vs $207.64), RSI 55.9 (up sharply from 44) — SMA20 reclaimed (+2.8% above, from -2.7% below) and now also above SMA50 (+2%). 7D +7.9% (a real weekly move, vs -0.52%), 30D roughly flat at -0.03% (from -6.24%), 3M has improved to -5.96% (from -15.06%). -25.53% from 52wk high — narrowed from the -30.27% drawdown low set 07/25. Death cross remains flagged, but this is the first SMA20 reclaim since the June bounce fully reversed. No new fundamentals re-researched; housing-recovery thesis confirmation still pending, but the tape has stopped deteriorating for the first time in weeks. 2026-07-31 tape note: LOW $207.81 (-4.78% vs $218.24), RSI 45.7 (cooled from 55.9). 7D +0.08% (decelerated from +7.90%), 30D -5.78%, 3M -10.39% (deepened from -5.96%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -29.09% (widened from -25.53%). Per the tape: trend "strong-down", regime "downtrend", no golden cross. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-07-31 close). 2026-08-08 tape note: LOW $223.35 (+7.48% vs $207.81), RSI 59.9 (warmed from 45.7). 7D +7.48% (accelerated from +0.08%), 30D +5.58% (turned positive from -5.78%), 3M -1.95% (moderated from -10.39%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -24.95% (narrowed from -29.09%). Per the tape: trend "weak-up", regime "downtrend", death cross confirmed. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-08-07 close). 2026-08-14 tape note: LOW $218.47 (-2.18% vs $223.35), RSI 53.6 (cooled from 59.9). 7D -2.18% (turned negative from +7.48%), 30D +4.85% (moderated from +5.58%), 3M +0.64% (turned positive from -1.95%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -25.54% (widened from -24.95%). Per the tape: trend "weak-up", regime "downtrend", death cross confirmed. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-08-14 close).
Price Data
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $218.47 |
| RSI (14) | 53.6 |
| SMA20 | $213.38 (+2.4%) |
| SMA50 | $214.57 (+1.8%) |
| SMA200 | $235.71 (-7.3%) |
| Trend | weak-up |
| Golden cross | No |
| Regime | downtrend |
| 7D | -2.18% |
| 30D | +4.85% |
| 3M | +0.64% |
| From 52wk High | -25.54% |
Key Changes vs 2026-07-28
| Metric | 2026-07-28 | 2026-07-31 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $218.24 | $207.81 | down |
| RSI | 55.9 | 45.7 | cooled |
| vs SMA20 | +2.8% | -1.1% | reversed to below |
| 30D | -0.03% | -5.78% | deepened |
| 3M | -5.96% | -10.39% | deepened |
| 52wkHi% | -25.53% | -29.09% | widened |
Research Log
| Date | Update |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | Created deep dive — housing recovery play; RSI 53, price $245.78, golden cross intact |
| 2026-05-29 | LOW $214.36, RSI 37.1, strong-down; 30D -10.23%, 3M -16.25%, -26.85% from 52wkHi. Price blown through all prior entry levels ($235 SMA20, $255 SMA50). Rate-cut thesis has not materialized. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-06-16 | LOW $224.02, RSI 56, recovering; 7D +2.14%, 30D +2.75%, 3M -6.09%; -23.56% from 52wkHi; +4.2% above SMA20 ($215.04). RSI recovery from 37 → 56 significant; price has reclaimed SMA20. Housing ETFs (ITB/XHB) also breaking out — macro backdrop improving. Rate-cut catalyst still not confirmed but thesis stabilizing. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-11 | LOW $211.63, RSI 41.1, strong-down; 7D -3.7%, 30D -4.26%, 3M -13.94%; -27.79% from 52wkHi (new low for the drawdown); back -3.6% below SMA20 ($219.55). June's SMA20 reclaim fully reversed. Tape-vs-thesis note added under editorial. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-17 | LOW $208.73, RSI 41.4, strong-down; 7D -1.37%, 30D -6.06%, 3M -17.2%; -28.78% from 52wkHi (new drawdown low); -3.8% below SMA20. Essentially unchanged from 07/11 — still no reclaim signal. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-25 | LOW $207.64, RSI 44, strong-down; 7D -0.52%, 30D -6.24%, 3M -15.06%; -30.27% from 52wkHi (new drawdown low); -2.7% below SMA20. RSI warmed slightly but no reclaim signal. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-28 | LOW $218.24, RSI 55.9, weak-up; 7D +7.9%, 30D -0.03%, 3M -5.96%; -25.53% from 52wkHi (narrowed); +2.8% above SMA20, +2% above SMA50. First SMA20 reclaim since the June bounce reversed. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-31 | LOW $207.81, RSI 45.7, strong-down; 7D +0.08%; 30D -5.78%; 3M -10.39%; -29.09% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-08 | LOW $223.35, RSI 59.9, weak-up; 7D +7.48%; 30D +5.58%; 3M -1.95%; -24.95% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-14 | LOW $218.47, RSI 53.6, weak-up; 7D -2.18%; 30D +4.85%; 3M +0.64%; -25.54% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-31 close — *.
- Prior-cycle history: this file's dated update log (refreshed each full scan).