Editorial Note: NTR at $60.98 RSI 28.8 has crossed into oversold territory for the first time in this profile series. The June 16 read was RSI 37.1 (near-oversold); we now have RSI 28.8 — technically oversold by the standard sub-30 threshold. The 7D return of -2.1% and 30D of -11.28% continue the persistent distribution; the 3M of -18.81% is now nearly a fifth of the name's value destroyed in a quarter. From 52wk high at -28.56%, NTR is in structural drawdown territory. Price at $60.98 is -6.8% below SMA20 ($65.42), -11.9% below SMA50 ($69.32), and -7.1% below SMA200 ($65.62). The VWAP at $65.48 is -6.87% above current price — showing the stock is trading below the average transaction of the past period. The stop-loss referenced at the June 16 read ($59) is now only $1.98 away — 3.3% from current price. RSI 28.8 oversold is a mechanical condition that often presages a bounce, but in a persistent distribution with all moving averages overhead, "oversold" is a description of how far the name has fallen, not a buy signal. The potash/fertilizer/food-security thesis is structurally intact; the tape continues to say the market disagrees with that thesis on the short horizon. Per the action matrix: wait for RSI cross back above 35-40 and price reclaim of SMA20 before treating as actionable.

2026-07-11 tape check: The stop at $59 was never tested and both stated triggers have now fired convincingly. NTR is $65.43, RSI 51.7 (well clear of the 35 threshold) and back ABOVE SMA20 ($63.53, +3.0%) and essentially at SMA200 ($65.41, ~0%) — still -2.9% below SMA50 ($67.40). 30D has flipped to +0.71% (from -11.28%) and 3M has narrowed to -11.23% (from -18.81%). Drawdown from the 52-week high improved to -23.35% (from -28.56%). This is a clean recovery off the oversold low with no divergence to flag — the potash/food-security thesis is confirming, not contradicting, today's reading.

2026-07-17 tape check: The recovery has extended into an uptrend. NTR $67.28, RSI 55.9 (up from 51.7), now +4.8% above SMA20 ($64.17) and +0.9% above SMA50 ($66.68) — clearing all three moving averages for the first time in this file's recent history. 7D +2.83%, 30D +8.01% (accelerated), 3M -4.61% (narrowed further from -11.23%). -21.18% from 52wk high (improved from -23.35%). Trend now reads "strong-up." No divergence; the potash/food-security thesis continues confirming. No new fundamentals re-researched.

2026-07-25 tape check (Friday 2026-07-24 close): The uptrend continues. NTR $68.10 (+1.2% vs $67.28), RSI 57.5 (up modestly from 55.9) — +3.4% above SMA20 (narrowed slightly from +4.8%), +2.5% above SMA50 (up from +0.9%), +3.3% above SMA200 (up from +2.4%). All three moving averages remain cleared. 7D +1.22% (steady), 30D +13.82% (accelerated further from +8.01%), 3M -3.99% (roughly flat vs -4.61%). -19.7% from 52wk high (improved from -21.18%). No divergence; the potash/food-security thesis continues confirming. No new fundamentals re-researched.

2026-07-28 tape check: The uptrend has extended further. NTR $69.46 (+2.0% vs $68.10), RSI 60.7 (up from 57.5) — +4.8% above SMA20 (extended from +3.4%), +4.6% above SMA50 (extended from +2.5%), +5.3% above SMA200 (extended from +3.3%). All three moving averages remain cleared and the gap has widened on every one. 7D +3.92% (accelerated from +1.22%), 30D +14.56% (roughly steady), 3M -5.45% (modestly deepened from -3.99%). -18.63% from 52wk high (improved from -19.7%). No divergence; the potash/food-security thesis continues confirming. No new fundamentals re-researched.

2026-07-31 tape note: NTR $70.72 (+1.81% vs $69.46), RSI 64.4 (warmed from 60.7). 7D +3.18% (decelerated from +3.92%), 30D +12.34% (decelerated from +14.56%), 3M -6.11% (deepened from -5.45%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -17.15% (narrowed from -18.63%). Per the tape: trend "strong-up", regime "pullback", golden cross intact. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-07-31 close). 2026-08-08 tape note: NTR $64.42 (-8.91% vs $70.72), RSI 40.5 (cooled from 64.4). 7D -6.73% (turned negative from +3.18%), 30D -3.51% (turned negative from +12.34%), 3M -4.87% (moderated from -6.11%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -21.60% (widened from -17.15%). Per the tape: trend "strong-down", regime "pullback", death cross confirmed. Nutrien's Q2 landed 2026-08-05 — EPS $2.61 vs $2.72 est. (miss) — with only a muted -0.2% reaction across the print itself per the desk's earnings-event record; today's session extends the post-miss drift lower, alongside a Reuters piece flagging China-demand risk to the fertilizer-stock rally. No filed quarter is on the desk's financial sources yet. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-08-07 close). 2026-08-14 tape note: NTR $68.24 (+5.93% vs $64.42), RSI 54.3 (warmed from 40.5). 7D +5.93% (turned positive from -6.73%), 30D -0.13% (moderated from -3.51%), 3M -3.78% (moderated from -4.87%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -20.96% (narrowed from -21.60%). Per the tape: trend "up", regime "basing", death cross confirmed. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-08-14 close).

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Quick Snapshot

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Action Matrix

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Price Data

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Key Changes vs 07/28

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Research Log

Sources

• Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-31 close — *.
• Prior-cycle history: this file's dated update log (refreshed each full scan).